New England
Patriots
2025: 17-4
AwayModel projection
23–26
SEA -2
Total projection: 49
Seattle
Seahawks
2025: 17-3
HomeWed, Sep 9, 2026 • 8:20 PM ET · Lumen Field
Full researchWin probability
Price-blind model distribution.
44%56%
NE model winSEA model win
Market consensus
10 books aggregated
Quotes stale
Moneyline
NE+160
SEA-190
Spread
NE+3.5
SEA-3.5
Total
Over44.5
Under44.5
Key matchup edge
Structural advantages, price-blind.
- SEAOffensive efficiency
SEA averaged 2.7 more points per game in 2025.
- EVENScoring environment
Baseline C expects 49 combined points.
- EVENTurnover battle
Awaiting evidence
- EVENGame script
No single game-script conclusion clears the frozen support, confidence and separation thresholds, so the script stays unresolved. Structural offensive control reads unavailable for the home side and unavailable for the away side on the -3 to +3 script scale. Script certainty is low.
Descriptive factors
Completed games only · 2025 scope
NESEA
- 8Offense rank2
- 3Defense rank1
- 26.5Points / game29.2
- 17.9Points allowed16.9
- —Yards / play—
- —Turnover margin—
Top value candidate
Best priced expression from the current run.
The current run produced no priced expression
Official bet status: Withheld
Withhold integrity · Decision after kickoff