NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_NE

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Wed, Sep 9, 2026 • 8:20 PM ETLumen Field

New England

Patriots

17-4 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

23–26

Seahawks by 2

Expected total 49

Seattle

Seahawks

17-3 · 2025 Season

44%

Model win probability

SEA

56%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects NE 23.3 – SEA 25.5 with a home win probability of 56.5%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 56.5% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 23.3 – 25.5.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 4 completed meeting(s), SEA 4 – NE 0, average total 51.3.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): NE 16-13 vs SEA 23-7.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_INTEGRITY, DECISION_AFTER_KICKOFF) — there is no actionable bet.
Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

NE Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

SEA Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

SEA favoured

Home win probability 56.5% (price-blind).
Expected score 23.3 – 25.5.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

NEMetricSEA

26.5#8

Points / Game

29.2#2

0.44#8

Points / Play

0.49#1

+8.7#3

Average Score Margin

+12.3#1

17.9#3

Opp Points / Game

16.9#1

0.31#4

Opp Points / Play

0.27#1

Efficiency

NEMetricSEA

364.9#6

Yards / Game

350.4#7

6.05#4

Yards / Play

5.91#7

+0.09#5

EPA / Play

+0.04#10

46.2%#7

Success Rate

46.0%#8

10.1%#9

Explosive Play Rate

10.6%#5

285.3#5

Opp Yards / Game

296.1#7

4.89#6

Opp Yards / Play

4.75#4

-0.09#5

Opp EPA / Play

-0.12#2

42.4%#11

Opp Success Rate

39.9%#3

7.2%#5

Opp Explosive Play Rate

6.3%#2

Downs

NEMetricSEA

41.4%#13

3rd Down %

42.3%#11

72.4%#2

4th Down %

58.3%#13

36.3%#7

Opp 3rd Down %

34.0%#1

Red Zone

NEMetricSEA

65.6%#10

Red Zone TD %

61.8%#18

60.9%#13

Opp Red Zone TD %

54.8%#6

Turnovers

NEMetricSEA

1.14#17

Turnovers / Game

1.30#26

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

Drake Maye

Sam Darnold

SEA

17Games17

492Attempts477

72%Completion %68%

258.5Pass yds / game238.1

8.93Yards / attempt8.49

31Pass TD25

8Interceptions14

9%Sack rate5%

0.298EPA / dropback0.124

54%Success rate52%

12.16CPOE6.22

-0.243EPA under pressure-0.517

0.551EPA clean pocket0.367

—EPA play action—

0.321EPA vs blitz0.089

NE QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: 0.21Confidence: 92%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: ACCURACY

Weaknesses: SACK_AVOIDANCE

SEA QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: 0.34Confidence: 91%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

SEA

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

SEA

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

NE

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

SEA

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

NE

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Drake MayeQB	96%	1	1	2	103	450	4
Hunter HenryTE	79%	87	60	768	0	0	7
TreVeyon HendersonRB	46%	42	35	221	180	911	10
Rhamondre StevensonRB	59%	37	32	345	130	603	9
Mack HollinsWR	68%	65	46	550	1	4	2
Stefon DiggsWR	54%	102	85	1013	0	0	4
Kayshon BoutteWR	68%	46	33	551	0	0	6
Austin HooperTE	52%	26	21	263	0	0	2
DeMario DouglasWR	27%	46	31	447	7	21	3
Kyle WilliamsWR	33%	21	10	209	2	3	3
Efton Chism IIIWR	18%	3	3	75	0	0	1
Jack WestoverFB	34%	2	1	0	0	0	0
Antonio GibsonRB	17%	3	2	6	25	106	1
Joshua DobbsQB	18%	0	0	0	10	-5	0
Terrell JenningsRB	10%	1	1	9	23	73	1
D'Ernest JohnsonRB	12%	0	0	0	13	25	0

SEA

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Sam DarnoldQB	96%	0	0	0	35	95	0
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR	77%	163	119	1793	7	36	10
AJ BarnerTE	77%	68	52	519	10	14	7
Cooper KuppWR	76%	70	47	593	0	0	2
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	47%	36	31	282	221	1027	5
Zach CharbonnetRB	48%	24	20	144	184	730	12
Elijah ArroyoTE	40%	26	15	179	0	0	1
Rashid ShaheedWR	48%	26	15	188	7	64	0
Tory HortonWR	48%	22	13	161	0	0	5
Eric SaubertTE	42%	7	4	31	0	0	0
Cody WhiteWR	33%	4	3	90	0	0	1
Robbie OuztsRB	35%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nick KallerupTE	27%	1	0	0	0	0	0
George HolaniRB	6%	2	2	15	22	73	1
Jake BoboWR	16%	2	2	20	0	0	0
Dareke YoungWR	9%	3	2	48	0	0	0
Brady RussellRB	7%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Drew LockQB	18%	0	0	0	6	-5	0

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Injury	Practice	Status
NE	Christian Barmore	DT		Full Participation in Practice
NE	Ben Brown	C	Knee	Did Not Participate In Practice	Out
NE	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	Ankle	Did Not Participate In Practice	Out
SEA	Josh Jones	T		Limited Participation in Practice
SEA	Ty Okada	S	Hamstring	Did Not Participate In Practice	Out
SEA	Emanuel Wilson	RB		Full Participation in Practice
SEA	Anthony Bradford	G		Full Participation in Practice
SEA	AJ Barner	TE		Full Participation in Practice
SEA	Tory Horton	WR	Hamstring	Limited Participation in Practice	Questionable
SEA	Nick Emmanwori	S	Ankle	Limited Participation in Practice	Questionable
SEA	Julian Neal	CB		Full Participation in Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

NE

CJared Wilson#1
FBReggie Gilliam#1
FSKevin Byard#1
HBryce Baringer#1
KRKyle Williams#1
LCBCarlton Davis III#1
LDEChristian Barmore#1
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker#1
LILBChristian Elliss#1
LSJulian Ashby#1
LTWill Campbell#1
NBMarcus Jones#1
NTCory Durden#1
PBryce Baringer#1
PKAndy Borregales#1
PRMarcus Jones#1
QBDrake Maye#1
RBRhamondre Stevenson#1
RCBChristian Gonzalez#1
RDEMilton Williams#1
RGMike Onwenu#1
RILBRobert Spillane#1
RTMorgan Moses#1
SLBDre'Mont Jones#1

SEA

CJalen Sundell#1
FBBrady Russell#1
FSJulian Love#1
HMichael Dickson#1
KRRashid Shaheed#1
LCBDevon Witherspoon#1
LDELeonard Williams#1
LGGrey Zabel#1
LILBDrake Thomas#1
LSChris Stoll#1
LTCharles Cross#1
NBNick Emmanwori#1
NTByron Murphy II#1
PMichael Dickson#1
PKJason Myers#1
PRRashid Shaheed#1
QBSam Darnold#1
RBZach Charbonnet#1
RCBJosh Jobe#1
RDEJarran Reed#1
RGAnthony Bradford#1
RILBErnest Jones IV#1
RTAbraham Lucas#1
SLBUchenna Nwosu#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

NE

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-02-08	vs SEA	L	13–29	4.96	-0.309	3
2026-01-25	@ DEN	W	10–7	3.43	-0.138	0
2026-01-18	vs HOU	W	28–16	4.03	-0.278	3
2026-01-12	vs LAC	W	16–3	6.30	-0.016	2
2026-01-04	vs MIA	W	38–10	8.50	0.360	0
2025-12-28	@ NYJ	W	42–10	7.35	0.488	0
2025-12-22	@ BAL	W	28–24	6.75	0.211	2
2025-12-14	vs BUF	L	31–35	7.55	0.244	1
2025-12-02	vs NYG	W	33–15	6.52	0.169	0
2025-11-23	@ CIN	W	26–20	5.95	0.004	1

SEA

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-02-08	@ NE	W	29–13	4.72	-0.050	0
2026-01-25	vs LA	W	31–27	6.09	0.198	0
2026-01-18	vs SF	W	41–6	5.40	0.212	0
2026-01-04	@ SF	W	13–3	5.67	0.069	0
2025-12-28	@ CAR	W	27–10	4.45	-0.054	2
2025-12-19	vs LA	W	38–37	6.48	0.032	3
2025-12-14	vs IND	W	18–16	5.63	-0.041	0
2025-12-07	@ ATL	W	37–9	6.29	0.152	1
2025-11-30	vs MIN	W	26–0	3.53	-0.178	1
2025-11-23	@ TEN	W	30–24	7.70	0.290	0

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

NE 2-1 (3) · SEA 3-0 (3)

17.0Points For / Game33.7

17.3Points Against / Game15.3

-0.3Average Margin+18.3

4.16Yards / Play5.38

3.77Yards / Play Allowed5.69

-0.24EPA / Play+0.11

-0.25EPA / Play Allowed-0.16

34.7%Success Rate44.1%

31.8%Success Rate Allowed41.3%

6.8%Explosive Rate8.5%

5.0%Explosive Rate Allowed9.2%

32.6%3rd Down %41.0%

85.7%Red Zone TD %62.5%

2.00Turnovers / Game0.00

Last 5

NE 4-1 (5) · SEA 5-0 (5)

21.0Points For / Game28.2

13.0Points Against / Game11.8

+8.0Average Margin+16.4

5.36Yards / Play5.25

3.64Yards / Play Allowed4.95

-0.09EPA / Play+0.07

-0.27EPA / Play Allowed-0.25

41.6%Success Rate44.5%

35.7%Success Rate Allowed39.6%

8.9%Explosive Rate9.1%

4.8%Explosive Rate Allowed6.9%

36.4%3rd Down %47.8%

70.6%Red Zone TD %53.8%

1.60Turnovers / Game0.40

Last 10

NE 8-2 (10) · SEA 10-0 (10)

26.5Points For / Game29.0

16.9Points Against / Game14.5

+9.6Average Margin+14.5

6.07Yards / Play5.53

4.40Yards / Play Allowed4.83

+0.06EPA / Play+0.05

-0.15EPA / Play Allowed-0.19

46.6%Success Rate45.2%

39.7%Success Rate Allowed37.7%

11.1%Explosive Rate9.6%

5.9%Explosive Rate Allowed6.3%

39.0%3rd Down %41.6%

66.7%Red Zone TD %56.5%

1.20Turnovers / Game0.70

2025 Season

NE 17-4 (21) · SEA 17-3 (20)

26.5Points For / Game29.2

17.9Points Against / Game16.9

+8.7Average Margin+12.3

6.05Yards / Play5.91

4.89Yards / Play Allowed4.75

+0.09EPA / Play+0.04

-0.09EPA / Play Allowed-0.12

46.2%Success Rate46.0%

42.4%Success Rate Allowed39.9%

10.1%Explosive Rate10.6%

7.2%Explosive Rate Allowed6.3%

41.4%3rd Down %42.3%

65.6%Red Zone TD %61.8%

1.14Turnovers / Game1.30

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2016–2025

Head to head

4 meeting(s) · SEA 4 – NE 0 · avg total 51.3 · avg margin 7.8

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2026-02-08	SEA @ NE	29–13	42
2024-09-15	SEA @ NE	23–20	43
2020-09-21	NE @ SEA	30–35	65
2016-11-14	SEA @ NE	31–24	55

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	NE	SEA	Margin edge
NYG	1-0 18	0-1 -9	27.0
NO	1-0 6	1-0 31	-25.0
ARI	0-1 -13	4-0 12	-24.8
JAX	0-1 -16	1-0 8	-24.0
SF	0-1 -17	3-2 6	-23.4
ATL	1-0 1	2-0 24	-23.0
BUF	2-2 1	0-1 -21	21.8
PIT	0-1 -7	1-0 14	-21.0
MIA	2-2 3	1-0 21	-18.5
CHI	1-0 16	1-0 3	13.0
HOU	1-1 -4	1-0 8	-12.0
CAR	1-0 29	1-0 17	12.0
TB	1-0 5	0-1 -3	8.0
LA	0-1 -6	3-2 0	-6.4
DEN	1-0 3	1-0 6	-3.0
IND	0-1 -1	1-0 2	-3.0
NYJ	3-1 7	1-0 5	1.8
TEN	1-1 8	1-0 6	1.5

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Sportsbook market

10 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	NE spread	SEA spread	Total	Over	Under	NE ML	SEA ML
betmgm	+3.5 -108	-3.5 -110	44.5	-110	-108	+155	-190
betonlineag	+3.5 -110	-3.5 -110	43.5	-115	-105	+165	-190
betrivers	+3.5 -110	-3.5 -110	44.5	-108	-113	+160	-200
betus	+3.5 -110	-3.5 -110	44	-110	-110	+163	-190
bovada	+3.5 -110	-3.5 -110	44.5	-105	-115	+160	-185
draftkings	+3.5 -115	-3.5 -105	44.5	-110	-110	+150	-180
fanduel	+3.5 -108	-3.5 -112	44.5	-110	-110	+164	-196
lowvig	+3.5 -105	-3.5 -105	43.5	-113	-102	+165	-190
mybookieag	+3.5 -110	-3.5 -110	44	-110	-110	+152	-197
williamhill_us	+3.5 -109	-3.5 -110	44.5	-108	-112	+159	-190

Current-run value candidates

Consensus rows come from an earlier market run than the current decision run.

The current decision run produced no priced candidate. 26 candidates from earlier runs exist but are superseded and are not shown as live.

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

2485 mi

Timezone shift

-2 h

NE rest

213.0347222222222 days

SEA rest

213.0347222222222 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

fieldturf

Roof

outdoors

Indoor

Weather

No pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_INTEGRITY, DECISION_AFTER_KICKOFF) — there is no actionable bet.
Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

Withhold integrity
Decision after kickoff

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

Unavailable

UnavailableThe current run produced no priced expression

Market snapshot

10 books

Market awaiting

SEA spread-3.5 -110

Total43.5 o-110

MoneylineNE +165 / SEA -195

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffWed, Sep 9, 2026 • 8:20 PM ET

Candidates0

Game info

KickoffWed, Sep 9, 2026 • 8:20 PM ET

VenueLumen Field

Roofoutdoors

Surfacefieldturf

NeutralNo

WeatherNo pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

RestNE 213.0347222222222 / SEA 213.0347222222222 days

Travel2485 mi