Methodology
What the model does, what it refuses to do, and how to read it.
Price-blind football graph
- No odds, line, price or market signal ever enters the feature, script or simulation graph. The football model never sees what a sportsbook thinks.
- Market data is only introduced at the final value layer, after the football probability already exists.
Point-in-time evidence
- Every descriptive statistic on a matchup page comes from games completed strictly before that game's decision cutoff.
- When only prior-season evidence exists, the page labels it as such instead of implying current-season form.
Append-only receipts
- Every authority writes an immutable receipt. Pages read those receipts and never recompute a probability, edge or decision in the browser.
- Failed certifications are recorded permanently and never retuned to force a pass.
Four distinct claims
- Model forecast: the price-blind projected score and win probability.
- Best market prediction: the strongest currently priced expression from the current run. This is not a bet.
- Best value: the same expression ranked by persisted edge against the devigged fair price.
- Official bet: released only when the decision authority clears every gate. Everything else is a withhold.
Number formatting policy
- Model numbers are rounded to whole numbers for display, because implied precision that the model does not have would be misleading.
- Sportsbook lines and prices are shown exactly as priced, because changing them changes the wager.
- Missing evidence is displayed as unavailable. A missing number is never rendered as zero.