NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_WAS

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Sun, Sep 13, 2026 • 4:25 PM ETLincoln Financial Field

Washington

Redskins

5-12 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

20–26

Eagles by 6

Expected total 46

Philadelphia

Eagles

11-7 · 2025 Season

WAS

34%

Model win probability

PHI

66%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects WAS 20.4 – PHI 26.0 with a home win probability of 66.3%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 66.3% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 20.4 – 26.0.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 21 completed meeting(s), PHI 14 – WAS 7, average total 49.8.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): WAS 15-13 vs PHI 21-7.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

WAS Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

PHI Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

PHI favoured

Home win probability 66.3% (price-blind).
Expected score 20.4 – 26.0.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

WASMetricPHI

20.9#21

Points / Game

22.1#19

0.36#20

Points / Play

0.37#15

-5.6#27

Average Score Margin

+2.8#10

26.5#27

Opp Points / Game

19.3#6

0.42#26

Opp Points / Play

0.31#5

Efficiency

WASMetricPHI

319.7#22

Yards / Game

312.2#24

5.56#12

Yards / Play

5.27#18

+0.01#17

EPA / Play

+0.02#15

45.6%#9

Success Rate

43.1%#19

8.8%#13

Explosive Play Rate

8.8%#11

385.2#32

Opp Yards / Game

317.7#12

6.11#30

Opp Yards / Play

5.10#10

+0.14#30

Opp EPA / Play

-0.07#9

47.6%#27

Opp Success Rate

42.2%#10

10.0%#25

Opp Explosive Play Rate

8.5%#17

Downs

WASMetricPHI

38.0%#22

3rd Down %

37.7%#24

61.5%#10

4th Down %

56.0%#19

42.2%#22

Opp 3rd Down %

42.4%#23

Red Zone

WASMetricPHI

69.6%#4

Red Zone TD %

72.6%#2

69.9%#29

Opp Red Zone TD %

60.0%#11

Turnovers

WASMetricPHI

1.24#21

Turnovers / Game

0.67#1

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

Jayden Daniels

WAS

Jalen Hurts

PHI

7Games16

188Attempts454

61%Completion %65%

180.3Pass yds / game201.5

6.71Yards / attempt7.10

8Pass TD25

3Interceptions6

9%Sack rate7%

-0.023EPA / dropback0.052

44%Success rate43%

-3.05CPOE4.23

-0.347EPA under pressure-0.663

0.139EPA clean pocket0.325

—EPA play action—

-0.219EPA vs blitz0.018

WAS QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.57Confidence: 51%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

PHI QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.12Confidence: 78%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: RED_ZONE_PROFILE, TURNOVER_AVOIDANCE

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

PHI

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

WAS

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

PHI

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

WAS

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

WAS

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

PHI

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

WAS

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR	72%	99	72	727	17	75	6
Marcus MariotaQB	81%	0	0	0	50	297	1
Jayden DanielsQB	90%	0	0	0	58	278	2
Zach ErtzTE	66%	72	50	504	0	0	4
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB	39%	13	9	68	175	805	8
Terry McLaurinWR	70%	60	38	582	0	0	3
Jeremy McNicholsRB	33%	31	25	196	44	221	1
Jaylin LaneWR	36%	32	16	225	1	7	0
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB	34%	4	3	30	112	500	6
John BatesTE	56%	16	11	103	0	0	1
Chris MooreWR	50%	23	11	207	1	9	1
Treylon BurksWR	60%	22	10	130	0	0	1
Ben SinnottTE	42%	13	11	114	0	0	1
Josh JohnsonQB	80%	0	0	0	12	55	1
Luke McCaffreyWR	32%	15	11	203	0	0	3
Noah BrownWR	41%	10	5	83	0	0	0
Austin EkelerRB	50%	7	5	38	14	43	0
Colson YankoffTE	14%	3	2	18	0	0	0

PHI

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Jalen HurtsQB	98%	0	0	0	105	421	8
Saquon BarkleyRB	78%	50	37	273	280	1140	9
DeVonta SmithWR	84%	113	77	1008	0	0	4
A.J. BrownWR	91%	121	78	1003	0	0	7
Dallas GoedertTE	85%	82	60	591	0	0	11
Jahan DotsonWR	58%	36	18	262	0	0	1
Grant CalcaterraTE	40%	13	9	76	0	0	1
Kylen GransonTE	26%	9	7	40	0	0	0
Tank BigsbyRB	14%	4	3	32	58	344	2
Tanner McKeeQB	35%	0	0	0	8	8	0
Darius CooperWR	33%	11	9	92	0	0	0
Will ShipleyRB	13%	12	9	56	14	49	0
Cameron LatuTE	10%	0	0	0	0	0	0
AJ DillonRB	13%	3	3	21	12	60	0
Britain CoveyWR	10%	4	2	20	0	0	0
John Metchie IIIWR	7%	4	4	18	0	0	0
Xavier GipsonWR	3%	2	2	6	0	0	0
E.J. JenkinsTE	10%	0	0	0	0	0	0

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Practice
PHI	Jonathan Greenard	LB	Limited Participation in Practice
PHI	Eli Stowers	TE	Limited Participation in Practice
WAS	Marcus Mariota	QB	Full Participation in Practice
WAS	Nick Allegretti	C	Full Participation in Practice
WAS	Charles Omenihu	DE	Full Participation in Practice
WAS	K'Lavon Chaisson	LB	Limited Participation in Practice
WAS	Odafe Oweh	LB	Limited Participation in Practice
WAS	Jordan Magee	LB	Full Participation in Practice
WAS	Ben Sinnott	TE	Full Participation in Practice
WAS	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	Limited Participation in Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

WAS

CNick Allegretti#1
FSJeremy Reaves#1
HTress Way#1
KRLuke McCaffrey#1
LCBTrey Amos#1
LDETim Settle#1
LGChris Paul#1
LILBFrankie Luvu#1
LSTyler Ott#1
LTAndrew Wylie#1
NBAmik Robertson#1
NTDaron Payne#1
PTress Way#1
PKDrew Stevens#1
PRJaylin Lane#1
QBJayden Daniels#1
RBJacory Croskey-Merritt#1
RCBMike Sainristil#1
RDEJavon Kinlaw#1
RGSam Cosmi#1
RILBSonny Styles#1
RTJosh Conerly Jr.#1
SLBK'Lavon Chaisson#1
SSNick Cross#1

PHI

CCam Jurgens#1
FSAndrew Mukuba#1
HBraden Mann#1
KRWill Shipley#1
LCBRiq Woolen#1
LDEJalen Carter#1
LGLandon Dickerson#1
LILBZack Baun#1
LSRocco Underwood#1
LTJordan Mailata#1
NBCooper DeJean#1
PBraden Mann#1
PKJake Elliott#1
PRBritain Covey#1
QBJalen Hurts#1
RBSaquon Barkley#1
RCBQuinyon Mitchell#1
RDEMoro Ojomo#1
RGTyler Steen#1
RILBJihaad Campbell#1
RTLane Johnson#1
SLBJonathan Greenard#1
SSMarcus Epps#1
TEDallas Goedert#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

WAS

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	@ PHI	W	24–17	4.51	-0.025	2
2025-12-25	vs DAL	L	23–30	8.20	0.197	0
2025-12-20	vs PHI	L	18–29	4.37	-0.125	1
2025-12-14	@ NYG	W	29–21	6.24	0.003	2
2025-12-07	@ MIN	L	0–31	4.20	-0.432	3
2025-12-01	vs DEN	L	26–27	4.94	0.073	1
2025-11-16	@ MIA	L	13–16	5.92	0.071	1
2025-11-09	vs DET	L	22–44	5.56	0.173	0
2025-11-03	vs SEA	L	14–38	4.68	-0.020	1
2025-10-28	@ KC	L	7–28	5.00	-0.181	2

PHI

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-11	vs SF	L	19–23	4.26	-0.041	0
2026-01-04	vs WAS	L	17–24	4.95	-0.103	1
2025-12-28	@ BUF	W	13–12	3.60	-0.120	0
2025-12-20	@ WAS	W	29–18	5.98	0.290	0
2025-12-14	vs LV	W	31–0	5.86	0.246	0
2025-12-09	@ LAC	L	19–22	5.63	-0.263	4
2025-11-28	vs CHI	L	15–24	6.34	-0.036	2
2025-11-23	@ DAL	L	21–24	5.84	0.062	1
2025-11-17	vs DET	W	16–9	4.01	-0.229	0
2025-11-11	@ GB	W	10–7	4.90	-0.078	1

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

WAS 1-2 (3) · PHI 1-2 (3)

21.7Points For / Game16.3

25.3Points Against / Game19.7

-3.7Average Margin-3.3

5.43Yards / Play4.30

5.50Yards / Play Allowed5.14

-0.00EPA / Play-0.08

+0.14EPA / Play Allowed-0.02

43.4%Success Rate39.6%

48.1%Success Rate Allowed44.4%

9.2%Explosive Rate5.3%

7.9%Explosive Rate Allowed7.9%

33.3%3rd Down %34.9%

63.6%Red Zone TD %50.0%

1.00Turnovers / Game0.33

Last 5

WAS 2-3 (5) · PHI 3-2 (5)

18.8Points For / Game21.8

25.6Points Against / Game15.4

-6.8Average Margin+6.4

5.37Yards / Play4.97

5.55Yards / Play Allowed4.50

-0.08EPA / Play+0.06

+0.15EPA / Play Allowed-0.10

43.0%Success Rate45.6%

48.2%Success Rate Allowed41.1%

9.8%Explosive Rate7.2%

7.7%Explosive Rate Allowed7.4%

31.9%3rd Down %44.6%

60.0%Red Zone TD %65.0%

1.60Turnovers / Game0.20

Last 10

WAS 2-8 (10) · PHI 5-5 (10)

17.6Points For / Game19.0

28.1Points Against / Game16.3

-10.5Average Margin+2.7

5.28Yards / Play5.12

6.21Yards / Play Allowed4.83

-0.02EPA / Play-0.03

+0.21EPA / Play Allowed-0.13

44.5%Success Rate41.8%

50.5%Success Rate Allowed39.6%

8.6%Explosive Rate7.6%

10.4%Explosive Rate Allowed8.5%

39.3%3rd Down %40.2%

59.4%Red Zone TD %61.8%

1.30Turnovers / Game0.90

2025 Season

WAS 5-12 (17) · PHI 11-7 (18)

20.9Points For / Game22.1

26.5Points Against / Game19.3

-5.6Average Margin+2.8

5.56Yards / Play5.27

6.11Yards / Play Allowed5.10

+0.01EPA / Play+0.02

+0.14EPA / Play Allowed-0.07

45.6%Success Rate43.1%

47.6%Success Rate Allowed42.2%

8.8%Explosive Rate8.8%

10.0%Explosive Rate Allowed8.5%

38.0%3rd Down %37.7%

69.6%Red Zone TD %72.6%

1.24Turnovers / Game0.67

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2016–2025

Head to head

21 meeting(s) · PHI 14 – WAS 7 · avg total 49.8 · avg margin 5.7

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2026-01-04	WAS @ PHI	24–17	41
2025-12-20	PHI @ WAS	29–18	47
2025-01-26	WAS @ PHI	23–55	78
2024-12-22	PHI @ WAS	33–36	69
2024-11-15	WAS @ PHI	18–26	44
2023-10-29	PHI @ WAS	38–31	69
2023-10-01	WAS @ PHI	31–34	65
2022-11-15	WAS @ PHI	32–21	53
2022-09-25	PHI @ WAS	24–8	32
2022-01-02	PHI @ WAS	20–16	36
2021-12-22	WAS @ PHI	17–27	44
2021-01-04	WAS @ PHI	20–14	34
2020-09-13	PHI @ WAS	17–27	44
2019-12-15	PHI @ WAS	37–27	64
2019-09-08	WAS @ PHI	27–32	59
2018-12-30	PHI @ WAS	24–0	24
2018-12-04	WAS @ PHI	13–28	41
2017-10-24	WAS @ PHI	24–34	58
2017-09-10	PHI @ WAS	30–17	47
2016-12-11	WAS @ PHI	27–22	49
2016-10-16	PHI @ WAS	20–27	47

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	WAS	PHI	Margin edge
MIN	0-1 -31	1-0 6	-37.0
KC	0-1 -21	2-0 11	-31.5
CAR	1-0 33	1-0 6	27.0
DAL	1-3 -8	3-1 16	-24.0
LAC	1-0 17	0-1 -3	20.0
CLE	1-0 21	1-0 4	17.0
GB	0-1 -9	3-0 7	-15.7
PIT	0-1 -1	1-0 14	-15.0
CIN	1-0 5	1-0 20	-15.0
LV	1-0 17	1-0 31	-14.0
BAL	0-1 -7	1-0 5	-12.0
DET	1-1 -4	1-0 7	-11.0
CHI	1-1 1	0-1 -9	10.0
DEN	0-1 -1	0-1 -4	3.0
NO	1-0 1	1-0 3	-2.0
TB	1-1 -7	1-1 -6	-1.5
NYG	4-0 8	3-1 8	-0.5
ATL	1-1 -1	0-1 -1	0.5

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

WAS @ KC (2025)7-2877%
WAS @ LAC (2025)27-1070%
WAS @ ATL (2025)27-3466%
NYG @ PHI (2025)20-3864%
WAS @ GB (2025)18-2760%

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	WAS spread	PHI spread	Total	Over	Under	WAS ML	PHI ML
betmgm	+5.5 -108	-5.5 -110	44.5	-108	-110	+195	-235
betonlineag	+5 -105	-5 -115	44	-110	-110	+203	-245
betrivers	+5.5 -110	-5.5 -110	44.5	-106	-114	+180	-235
betus	+5.5 -110	-5.5 -110	44	-110	-110	+205	-245
bovada	+5.5 -110	-5.5 -110	44	-110	-110	+205	-245
draftkings	+5.5 -112	-5.5 -108	44.5	-105	-115	+180	-218
fanatics	+5.5 -110	-5.5 -110	44	-110	-110	+200	-245
fanduel	+5.5 -110	-5.5 -110	44.5	-110	-110	+205	-250
lowvig	+5 +100	-5 -110	44	-107	-107	+203	-245
mybookieag	+5.5 -110	-5.5 -110	44.5	-110	-110	+198	-250
williamhill_us	+5.5 -112	-5.5 -107	44.5	-106	-114	+200	-245

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	OVER 44	lowvig	-107	54.2%	50.0%	4.2%	0.077
2	OVER 44.5	draftkings	-105	54.2%	49.5%	4.7%	0.057
3	WAS ML	bovada	+205	33.7%	31.9%	1.7%	0.027
4	PHI -5.5	williamhill_us	-107	51.5%	50.0%	1.5%	-0.003
5	PHI -5	lowvig	-110	51.5%	51.1%	0.4%	0.007
6	PHI ML	draftkings	-218	66.3%	68.1%	-1.8%	-0.033
7	WAS +5	lowvig	+100	46.1%	48.9%	-2.7%	-0.054
8	WAS +5.5	betmgm	-108	48.5%	50.0%	-1.5%	-0.067
9	UNDER 44	lowvig	-107	42.9%	50.0%	-7.1%	-0.140
10	UNDER 44.5	fanduel	-110	45.8%	50.5%	-4.7%	-0.125

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

114 mi

Timezone shift

+1 h

WAS rest

251.95833333333334 days

PHI rest

244.95486111111111 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

grass

Roof

outdoors

Indoor

Weather

No pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

No Bet — Football evidence still developing

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

OVER 44 -107

Booklowvig

Model prob54.2%

Fair prob50.0%

Edge4.2%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

PHI spread-5.5 -110

Total44.5 o-107

MoneylineWAS +200 / PHI -245

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffFri, Sep 11, 2026 • 10:04 AM ET

Candidates10

Game info

KickoffSun, Sep 13, 2026 • 4:25 PM ET

VenueLincoln Financial Field

Roofoutdoors

Surfacegrass

NeutralNo

WeatherNo pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

RestWAS 251.95833333333334 / PHI 244.95486111111111 days

Travel114 mi