NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_TB

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Sun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ETPaycor Stadium

Tampa Bay

Buccaneers

8-9 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

24–24

Buccaneers by 1

Expected total 48

Cincinnati

Bengals

6-11 · 2025 Season

52%

Model win probability

CIN

48%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects TB 24.3 – CIN 23.6 with a home win probability of 47.8%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 47.8% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 24.3 – 23.6.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 2 completed meeting(s), CIN 2 – TB 0, average total 64.0.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): TB 11-11 vs CIN 8-13.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

TB Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

CIN Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

TB favoured

Home win probability 47.8% (price-blind).
Expected score 24.3 – 23.6.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

TBMetricCIN

22.4#18

Points / Game

24.4#12

0.36#21

Points / Play

0.39#11

-1.8#19

Average Score Margin

-4.6#26

24.2#20

Opp Points / Game

28.9#30

0.42#24

Opp Points / Play

0.48#29

Efficiency

TBMetricCIN

321.3#21

Yards / Game

330.5#16

5.13#24

Yards / Play

5.36#16

-0.01#20

EPA / Play

-0.01#19

42.3%#24

Success Rate

45.5%#10

8.4%#19

Explosive Play Rate

7.7%#23

337.8#20

Opp Yards / Game

382.1#31

5.80#24

Opp Yards / Play

6.28#32

+0.01#17

Opp EPA / Play

+0.13#29

44.8%#20

Opp Success Rate

47.8%#28

8.8%#20

Opp Explosive Play Rate

10.7%#29

Downs

TBMetricCIN

41.9%#12

3rd Down %

44.5%#5

44.8%#28

4th Down %

70.0%#3

39.5%#13

Opp 3rd Down %

44.1%#27

Red Zone

TBMetricCIN

60.0%#21

Red Zone TD %

72.7%#1

74.2%#32

Opp Red Zone TD %

68.9%#27

Turnovers

TBMetricCIN

0.94#10

Turnovers / Game

1.41#30

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

Baker Mayfield

Joe Burrow

CIN

17Games8

543Attempts259

63%Completion %67%

217.2Pass yds / game226.1

6.80Yards / attempt6.98

26Pass TD17

11Interceptions5

6%Sack rate6%

-0.006EPA / dropback0.099

43%Success rate49%

-2.47CPOE4.63

-0.533EPA under pressure-0.297

0.181EPA clean pocket0.268

—EPA play action—

-0.147EPA vs blitz0.356

TB QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.37Confidence: 83%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

CIN QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: 0.35Confidence: 52%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

CIN

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

CIN

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

TB

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

CIN

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

TB

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Baker MayfieldQB	97%	0	0	0	55	382	1
Emeka EgbukaWR	78%	127	63	938	2	9	6
Cade OttonTE	94%	81	59	572	0	0	1
Rachaad WhiteRB	51%	45	40	218	132	572	4
Bucky IrvingRB	62%	35	30	277	173	588	4
Sterling ShepardWR	56%	53	39	371	4	19	1
Tez JohnsonWR	47%	44	28	322	7	22	5
Chris Godwin Jr.WR	71%	51	33	360	0	0	2
Mike EvansWR	66%	62	30	368	0	0	3
Sean TuckerRB	16%	11	8	34	86	320	8
Payne DurhamTE	28%	4	1	11	0	0	0
Jalen McMillanWR	52%	15	12	178	1	1	0
Kameron JohnsonWR	10%	7	4	64	2	13	1
Ryan MillerWR	14%	4	2	34	0	0	1
Teddy BridgewaterQB	15%	0	0	0	3	4	0
Devin CulpTE	11%	1	1	6	0	0	1
Ko KieftTE	18%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Josh WilliamsRB	7%	0	0	0	4	11	0

CIN

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Ja'Marr ChaseWR	94%	185	125	1412	3	14	8
Chase BrownRB	67%	88	69	437	232	1019	11
Tee HigginsWR	81%	98	59	846	0	0	11
Andrei IosivasWR	78%	58	33	435	3	14	2
Joe BurrowQB	88%	0	0	0	14	41	0
Joe FlaccoQB	70%	0	0	0	15	22	1
Drew SampleTE	56%	20	15	106	1	3	1
Samaje PerineRB	35%	21	17	87	84	382	3
Noah FantTE	40%	41	34	288	0	0	3
Mike GesickiTE	42%	42	28	307	0	0	2
Jake BrowningQB	73%	0	0	0	9	39	1
Mitchell TinsleyWR	36%	24	8	116	0	0	2
Tanner HudsonTE	21%	24	19	168	0	0	2
Tahj BrooksRB	6%	2	1	9	16	45	0
Charlie JonesWR	2%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Cam GrandyTE	14%	2	2	7	0	0	0
Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR	7%	1	1	5	2	10	0
Kendall MiltonRB	6%	0	0	0	2	2	0

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Practice
CIN	Tee Higgins	WR	Full Participation in Practice
CIN	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	Full Participation in Practice
CIN	Shemar Stewart	DE	Full Participation in Practice
TB	Justin Skule	T	Limited Participation in Practice
TB	Christian Rozeboom	LB	Limited Participation in Practice
TB	Sean Tucker	RB	Did Not Participate In Practice
TB	Jalen McMillan	WR	Limited Participation in Practice
TB	Emeka Egbuka	WR	Full Participation in Practice
TB	Rueben Bain Jr.	LB	Limited Participation in Practice
TB	Billy Schrauth	G	Full Participation in Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

TB

CGraham Barton#1
FSAntoine Winfield Jr.#1
HRiley Dixon#1
KRKenny Gainwell#1
LCBZyon McCollum#1
LDEElijah Roberts#1
LGBen Bredeson#1
LILBAlex Anzalone#1
LSEvan Deckers#1
LTTristan Wirfs#1
NBJacob Parrish#1
NTVita Vea#1
PRiley Dixon#1
PKChase McLaughlin#1
PRKameron Johnson#1
QBBaker Mayfield#1
RBBucky Irving#1
RCBBenjamin Morrison#1
RDEA'Shawn Robinson#1
RGCody Mauch#1
RILBChristian Rozeboom#1
RTLuke Goedeke#1
SLBYaya Diaby#1
SSTykee Smith#1

CIN

CTed Karras#1
FSBryan Cook#1
HRyan Rehkow#1
KRCharlie Jones#1
LCBDax Hill#1
LDEBoye Mafe#1
LDTDexter Lawrence II#1
LGDylan Fairchild#1
LSWilliam Wagner#1
LTOrlando Brown Jr.#1
MLBBarrett Carter#1
NBJalen Davis#1
PRyan Rehkow#1
PKEvan McPherson#1
PRCharlie Jones#1
QBJoe Burrow#1
RBChase Brown#1
RCBDJ Turner II#1
RDEMyles Murphy#1
RDTJonathan Allen#1
RGDalton Risner#1
RTAmarius Mims#1
SLBOren Burks#1
SSJordan Battle#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

TB

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-03	vs CAR	W	16–14	5.12	0.006	1
2025-12-28	@ MIA	L	17–20	6.03	0.035	3
2025-12-21	@ CAR	L	20–23	4.95	0.107	1
2025-12-12	vs ATL	L	28–29	5.48	0.055	1
2025-12-07	vs NO	L	20–24	4.36	-0.178	1
2025-11-30	vs ARI	W	20–17	5.24	0.062	0
2025-11-24	@ LA	L	7–34	2.88	-0.430	2
2025-11-16	@ BUF	L	32–44	5.33	0.054	2
2025-11-09	vs NE	L	23–28	5.54	0.044	0
2025-10-26	@ NO	W	23–3	3.79	-0.148	1

CIN

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	vs CLE	L	18–20	5.43	-0.113	2
2025-12-28	vs ARI	W	37–14	6.19	0.340	0
2025-12-21	@ MIA	W	45–21	6.67	0.372	0
2025-12-14	vs BAL	L	0–24	4.20	-0.309	2
2025-12-07	@ BUF	L	34–39	5.93	0.119	2
2025-11-28	@ BAL	W	32–14	4.78	-0.002	1
2025-11-23	vs NE	L	20–26	5.03	-0.193	1
2025-11-16	@ PIT	L	12–34	4.73	-0.237	2
2025-11-02	vs CHI	L	42–47	7.66	0.231	3
2025-10-26	vs NYJ	L	38–39	6.86	0.265	0

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

TB 1-2 (3) · CIN 2-1 (3)

17.7Points For / Game33.3

19.0Points Against / Game18.3

-1.3Average Margin+15.0

5.37Yards / Play6.08

5.67Yards / Play Allowed5.01

+0.05EPA / Play+0.20

+0.07EPA / Play Allowed-0.08

45.5%Success Rate55.1%

42.8%Success Rate Allowed34.8%

5.3%Explosive Rate9.6%

10.5%Explosive Rate Allowed7.3%

52.4%3rd Down %56.8%

50.0%Red Zone TD %93.3%

1.67Turnovers / Game0.67

Last 5

TB 1-4 (5) · CIN 2-3 (5)

20.2Points For / Game26.8

22.0Points Against / Game23.6

-1.8Average Margin+3.2

5.17Yards / Play5.64

5.89Yards / Play Allowed6.03

+0.00EPA / Play+0.07

+0.09EPA / Play Allowed+0.04

44.4%Success Rate50.3%

43.8%Success Rate Allowed41.3%

7.5%Explosive Rate7.7%

10.3%Explosive Rate Allowed10.8%

45.3%3rd Down %53.1%

62.5%Red Zone TD %90.5%

1.40Turnovers / Game1.20

Last 10

TB 3-7 (10) · CIN 3-7 (10)

20.6Points For / Game27.8

23.6Points Against / Game27.8

-3.0Average Margin0.0

4.87Yards / Play5.70

6.05Yards / Play Allowed6.35

-0.04EPA / Play+0.04

+0.03EPA / Play Allowed+0.11

42.5%Success Rate47.5%

45.3%Success Rate Allowed46.2%

8.2%Explosive Rate8.9%

9.0%Explosive Rate Allowed10.7%

44.2%3rd Down %47.7%

60.0%Red Zone TD %73.3%

1.20Turnovers / Game1.30

2025 Season

TB 8-9 (17) · CIN 6-11 (17)

22.4Points For / Game24.4

24.2Points Against / Game28.9

-1.8Average Margin-4.6

5.13Yards / Play5.36

5.80Yards / Play Allowed6.28

-0.01EPA / Play-0.01

+0.01EPA / Play Allowed+0.13

42.3%Success Rate45.5%

44.8%Success Rate Allowed47.8%

8.4%Explosive Rate7.7%

8.8%Explosive Rate Allowed10.7%

41.9%3rd Down %44.5%

60.0%Red Zone TD %72.7%

0.94Turnovers / Game1.41

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2018–2022

Head to head

2 meeting(s) · CIN 2 – TB 0 · avg total 64.0 · avg margin 7.0

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2022-12-18	CIN @ TB	34–23	57
2018-10-28	TB @ CIN	34–37	71

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	TB	CIN	Margin edge
LAC	1-0 23	0-1 -7	30.0
MIA	0-1 -3	1-0 24	-27.0
PHI	1-1 6	0-1 -20	25.5
ARI	1-0 3	1-0 23	-20.0
NYG	1-0 23	1-0 10	13.0
WAS	1-1 7	0-1 -5	12.0
DEN	0-1 -19	1-1 -10	-9.5
DAL	0-1 -2	1-0 7	-9.0
DET	1-1 -6	0-1 -13	7.5
BAL	0-1 -10	1-3 -3	-7.5
BUF	0-1 -12	0-1 -5	-7.0
KC	0-1 -6	0-1 -1	-5.0
NYJ	1-0 2	0-1 -1	3.0
LV	1-0 15	1-0 17	-2.0
CAR	3-1 9	1-0 10	-1.0
NE	0-1 -5	0-2 -6	1.0

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

PIT @ CIN (2025)31-3369%
ARI @ CIN (2025)14-3766%
CHI @ CIN (2025)47-4265%
ATL @ ARI (2025)26-1963%
BAL @ CIN (2025)24-062%
DET @ CIN (2025)37-2461%

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	TB spread	CIN spread	Total	Over	Under	TB ML	CIN ML
betmgm	+3.5 -108	-3.5 -110	50.5	-108	-110	+165	-200
betonlineag	+3.5 -108	-3.5 -112	50.5	-105	-115	+174	-200
betrivers	+4 -112	-4 -109	50.5	-112	-109	+170	-210
betus	+3.5 -110	-3.5 -110	50.5	-105	-115	+170	-200
bovada	+4 -115	-4 -105	50	-115	-105	+175	-210
draftkings	+3.5 -108	-3.5 -112	50.5	-108	-112	+164	-198
fanatics	+4 -110	-4 -110	50.5	-105	-115	+170	-205
fanduel	+3.5 -105	-3.5 -115	50.5	-112	-108	+168	-200
lowvig	+3.5 -103	-3.5 -107	50.5	-102	-113	+174	-200
mybookieag	+4 -110	-4 -110	50.5	-110	-110	+166	-208
williamhill_us	+3.5 -108	-3.5 -112	50.5	-106	-114	+171	-205

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	TB ML	bovada	+175	52.1%	35.5%	16.6%	0.434
2	UNDER 50.5	fanduel	-108	59.0%	50.6%	8.3%	0.136
3	UNDER 50	—	-105	55.9%	48.9%	7.0%	0.122
4	TB +3.5	lowvig	-103	61.5%	49.6%	11.9%	0.212
5	TB +4	fanatics	-110	61.5%	50.2%	11.3%	0.203
6	OVER 50.5	lowvig	-102	41.0%	49.4%	-8.3%	-0.188
7	CIN ML	draftkings	-198	47.8%	64.5%	-16.6%	-0.280
8	OVER 50	—	-115	41.0%	51.1%	-10.1%	-0.202
9	CIN -3.5	lowvig	-107	38.5%	50.4%	-11.9%	-0.255
10	CIN -4	—	-109	35.6%	49.8%	-14.2%	-0.290

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

777 mi

Timezone shift

+1 h

TB rest

252.8125 days

CIN rest

251.95833333333334 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

fieldturf

Roof

outdoors

Indoor

Weather

No pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

No Bet — Football evidence still developing

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

TB ML +175

Bookbovada

Model prob52.1%

Fair prob35.5%

Edge16.6%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

CIN spread-3.5 -112

Total50.5 o-107

MoneylineTB +170 / CIN -200

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffFri, Sep 11, 2026 • 10:05 AM ET

Candidates10

Game info

KickoffSun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ET

VenuePaycor Stadium

Roofoutdoors

Surfacefieldturf

NeutralNo

WeatherNo pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

RestTB 252.8125 / CIN 251.95833333333334 days

Travel777 mi