NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_SF

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Thu, Sep 10, 2026 • 8:35 PM ETMelbourne Cricket Ground

San Francisco

49ers

13-6 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

24–25

Rams by 2

Expected total 49

Los Angeles

Rams

14-6 · 2025 Season

45%

Model win probability

55%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects SF 23.6 – LA 25.5 with a home win probability of 55.4%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 55.4% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 23.6 – 25.5.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 21 completed meeting(s), LA 8 – SF 13, average total 47.1.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): SF 15-13 vs LA 20-13.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

SF Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

LA Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

LA favoured

Home win probability 55.4% (price-blind).
Expected score 23.6 – 25.5.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

SFMetricLA

24.5#11

Points / Game

29.9#1

0.39#10

Points / Play

0.48#2

+1.8#12

Average Score Margin

+8.7#2

22.7#15

Opp Points / Game

21.3#10

0.38#16

Opp Points / Play

0.33#7

Efficiency

SFMetricLA

347.2#8

Yards / Game

398.6#1

5.59#11

Yards / Play

6.33#1

+0.06#9

EPA / Play

+0.14#1

47.6%#3

Success Rate

50.7%#1

8.0%#20

Explosive Play Rate

11.4%#1

336.1#18

Opp Yards / Game

336.4#19

5.59#20

Opp Yards / Play

5.27#14

+0.07#23

Opp EPA / Play

-0.05#11

48.4%#29

Opp Success Rate

42.7%#12

7.5%#6

Opp Explosive Play Rate

7.7%#9

Downs

SFMetricLA

51.1%#1

3rd Down %

38.2%#21

52.0%#20

4th Down %

65.7%#6

40.9%#18

Opp 3rd Down %

38.3%#11

Red Zone

SFMetricLA

68.0%#8

Red Zone TD %

69.2%#6

62.0%#16

Opp Red Zone TD %

59.5%#9

Turnovers

SFMetricLA

1.42#31

Turnovers / Game

0.80#4

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

Brock Purdy

Matthew Stafford

9Games17

284Attempts597

69%Completion %65%

240.8Pass yds / game276.9

7.63Yards / attempt7.88

20Pass TD46

10Interceptions8

4%Sack rate4%

0.194EPA / dropback0.227

53%Success rate53%

7.69CPOE1.72

-0.448EPA under pressure-0.334

0.446EPA clean pocket0.405

—EPA play action—

0.068EPA vs blitz0.313

SF QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: 0.28Confidence: 57%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: SACK_AVOIDANCE, THIRD_DOWN_PROFILE, ACCURACY

Weaknesses: TURNOVER_AVOIDANCE

LA QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: 0.77Confidence: 94%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: SACK_AVOIDANCE, TURNOVER_AVOIDANCE, DECISION_EFFICIENCY, QB_BASE_QUALITY

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

SF

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

LA

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

SF

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Christian McCaffreyRB	83%	129	102	924	311	1202	17
Brock PurdyQB	98%	0	0	0	33	147	3
Jauan JenningsWR	82%	90	55	643	0	0	9
Mac JonesQB	74%	0	0	0	36	60	0
Kendrick BourneWR	62%	53	37	551	0	0	0
George KittleTE	81%	69	57	628	1	-3	7
Ricky PearsallWR	78%	53	36	528	2	-2	0
Kyle JuszczykFB	45%	28	24	213	2	-3	2
Demarcus RobinsonWR	47%	35	22	276	1	6	1
Jake TongesTE	52%	46	34	293	0	0	5
Luke FarrellTE	36%	14	11	85	0	0	2
Brian RobinsonRB	17%	12	8	25	92	400	2
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR	38%	8	4	40	0	0	0
Skyy MooreWR	10%	7	5	87	2	11	0
Malik TurnerWR	11%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jordan WatkinsWR	12%	3	2	26	0	0	0
Brayden WillisTE	3%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Adrian MartinezQB	2%	0	0	0	1	-1	0

LA

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Matthew StaffordQB	99%	0	0	0	29	1	0
Kyren WilliamsRB	68%	50	36	281	259	1252	13
Puka NacuaWR	68%	166	129	1715	10	105	11
Davante AdamsWR	71%	114	60	789	0	0	14
Colby ParkinsonTE	62%	56	43	408	0	0	8
Davis AllenTE	52%	33	24	208	0	0	3
Blake CorumRB	29%	14	8	36	145	746	6
Jordan WhittingtonWR	43%	25	18	171	3	12	0
Tyler HigbeeTE	56%	36	25	281	0	0	3
Terrance FergusonTE	43%	25	11	231	1	0	3
Konata MumpfieldWR	43%	23	10	92	0	0	1
Xavier SmithWR	21%	24	18	303	0	0	0
Tutu AtwellWR	32%	15	6	192	0	0	1
Jimmy GaroppoloQB	8%	0	0	0	9	-10	0
Ronnie RiversRB	4%	0	0	0	9	46	0

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Injury	Practice	Status
LA	Aaron Donald	DE	Not injury related - resting player	Did Not Participate In Practice	Out
LA	Tyler Higbee	TE		Full Participation in Practice
LA	Myles Garrett	LB		Full Participation in Practice
LA	Alaric Jackson	T		Full Participation in Practice
LA	Grant Stuard	LB		Full Participation in Practice
LA	Jaylen Watson	CB		Full Participation in Practice
LA	Byron Young	LB		Full Participation in Practice
SF	Kyle Juszczyk	FB		Limited Participation in Practice
SF	George Kittle	TE		Limited Participation in Practice
SF	Dre Greenlaw	LB		Full Participation in Practice
SF	Luke Gifford	LB		Full Participation in Practice
SF	Nick Bosa	DE		Limited Participation in Practice
SF	Renardo Green	CB		Full Participation in Practice
SF	Upton Stout	CB		Full Participation in Practice
SF	Alfred Collins	DT	Knee	Did Not Participate In Practice	Out
SF	James Thompson Jr.	DT	Hamstring	Limited Participation in Practice	Questionable
SF	Romello Height	DE		Full Participation in Practice
SF	Gracen Halton	DT		Full Participation in Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

SF

CJake Brendel#1
FBKyle Juszczyk#1
FSMalik Mustapha#1
HCorliss Waitman#1
KRIsaac Guerendo#1
LCBDeommodore Lenoir#1
LDEC.J. West#1
LGConnor Colby#1
LILBDre Greenlaw#1
LSJon Weeks#1
LTTrent Williams#1
NBUpton Stout#1
NTAlfred Collins#1
PCorliss Waitman#1
PKEddy Pineiro#1
PRJacob Cowing#1
QBBrock Purdy#1
RBChristian McCaffrey#1
RCBRenardo Green#1
RDEOsa Odighizuwa#1
RGDominick Puni#1
RILBFred Warner#1
RTColton McKivitz#1
SLBMykel Williams#1

LA

CColeman Shelton#1
FSKam Curl#1
HEthan Evans#1
KRJordan Whittington#1
LCBJaylen Watson#1
LDEKobie Turner#1
LGSteve Avila#1
LILBNate Landman#1
LSJoe Cardona#1
LTAlaric Jackson#1
NBQuentin Lake#1
NTPoona Ford#1
PEthan Evans#1
PKHarrison Mevis#1
PRXavier Smith#1
QBMatthew Stafford#1
RBKyren Williams#1
RCBTrent McDuffie#1
RDEBraden Fiske#1
RGKevin Dotson#1
RILBOmar Speights#1
RTWarren McClendon Jr.#1
SLBMyles Garrett#1
SSKamren Kinchens#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

SF

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-18	@ SEA	L	6–41	3.93	-0.456	3
2026-01-11	@ PHI	W	23–19	6.62	0.104	2
2026-01-04	vs SEA	L	3–13	4.12	-0.359	1
2025-12-29	vs CHI	W	42–38	7.29	0.285	1
2025-12-23	@ IND	W	48–27	7.03	0.403	1
2025-12-14	vs TEN	W	37–24	6.14	0.248	1
2025-11-30	@ CLE	W	26–8	3.95	0.009	0
2025-11-25	vs CAR	W	20–9	5.03	-0.001	3
2025-11-16	@ ARI	W	41–22	5.68	0.191	0
2025-11-09	vs LA	L	26–42	6.44	0.127	2

LA

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-25	@ SEA	L	27–31	8.40	0.319	0
2026-01-18	@ CHI	W	20–17	4.49	0.038	0
2026-01-10	@ CAR	W	34–31	5.82	0.115	1
2026-01-04	vs ARI	W	37–20	5.85	0.236	0
2025-12-30	@ ATL	L	24–27	5.95	-0.104	3
2025-12-19	@ SEA	L	37–38	6.60	0.244	0
2025-12-14	vs DET	W	41–34	7.52	0.197	1
2025-12-07	@ ARI	W	45–17	8.34	0.439	0
2025-11-30	@ CAR	L	28–31	7.60	0.140	3
2025-11-24	vs TB	W	34–7	6.05	0.096	0

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

SF 1-2 (3) · LA 2-1 (3)

10.7Points For / Game27.0

24.3Points Against / Game26.3

-13.7Average Margin+0.7

4.92Yards / Play6.04

5.06Yards / Play Allowed5.49

-0.23EPA / Play+0.14

+0.07EPA / Play Allowed+0.03

40.1%Success Rate45.1%

47.9%Success Rate Allowed45.9%

3.8%Explosive Rate9.3%

8.5%Explosive Rate Allowed5.7%

45.2%3rd Down %27.0%

60.0%Red Zone TD %75.0%

2.00Turnovers / Game0.33

Last 5

SF 3-2 (5) · LA 3-2 (5)

24.4Points For / Game28.4

27.6Points Against / Game25.2

-3.2Average Margin+3.2

5.94Yards / Play5.99

5.51Yards / Play Allowed5.74

+0.03EPA / Play+0.12

+0.11EPA / Play Allowed+0.04

45.5%Success Rate46.5%

48.5%Success Rate Allowed45.1%

8.7%Explosive Rate10.5%

8.4%Explosive Rate Allowed7.6%

54.9%3rd Down %36.9%

77.8%Red Zone TD %68.2%

1.60Turnovers / Game0.80

Last 10

SF 7-3 (10) · LA 6-4 (10)

27.2Points For / Game32.7

24.3Points Against / Game25.3

+2.9Average Margin+7.4

5.68Yards / Play6.59

5.64Yards / Play Allowed5.56

+0.07EPA / Play+0.17

+0.09EPA / Play Allowed+0.01

47.1%Success Rate51.0%

49.3%Success Rate Allowed42.0%

7.7%Explosive Rate11.4%

7.7%Explosive Rate Allowed8.1%

54.5%3rd Down %37.1%

74.4%Red Zone TD %69.8%

1.40Turnovers / Game0.80

2025 Season

SF 13-6 (19) · LA 14-6 (20)

24.5Points For / Game29.9

22.7Points Against / Game21.3

+1.8Average Margin+8.7

5.59Yards / Play6.33

5.59Yards / Play Allowed5.27

+0.06EPA / Play+0.14

+0.07EPA / Play Allowed-0.05

47.6%Success Rate50.7%

48.4%Success Rate Allowed42.7%

8.0%Explosive Rate11.4%

7.5%Explosive Rate Allowed7.7%

51.1%3rd Down %38.2%

68.0%Red Zone TD %69.2%

1.42Turnovers / Game0.80

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2016–2025

Head to head

21 meeting(s) · LA 8 – SF 13 · avg total 47.1 · avg margin -3.2

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2025-11-09	LA @ SF	42–26	68
2025-10-03	SF @ LA	26–23	49
2024-12-13	LA @ SF	12–6	18
2024-09-22	SF @ LA	24–27	51
2024-01-07	LA @ SF	21–20	41
2023-09-17	SF @ LA	30–23	53
2022-10-30	SF @ LA	31–14	45
2022-10-04	LA @ SF	9–24	33
2022-01-30	SF @ LA	17–20	37
2022-01-09	SF @ LA	27–24	51
2021-11-16	LA @ SF	10–31	41
2020-11-29	SF @ LA	23–20	43
2020-10-19	LA @ SF	16–24	40
2019-12-22	LA @ SF	31–34	65
2019-10-13	SF @ LA	20–7	27
2018-12-30	SF @ LA	32–48	80
2018-10-21	LA @ SF	39–10	49
2017-12-31	SF @ LA	34–13	47
2017-09-22	LA @ SF	41–39	80
2016-12-24	SF @ LA	22–21	43
2016-09-13	LA @ SF	0–28	28

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	SF	LA	Margin edge
JAX	0-1 -5	1-0 28	-33.0
TB	1-1 -4	1-0 27	-31.0
BUF	0-1 -25	1-0 2	-27.0
GB	0-1 -28	0-1 -5	-23.0
MIN	0-1 -6	2-0 14	-20.0
CHI	2-0 15	1-1 -2	16.0
HOU	0-1 -11	1-0 5	-16.0
PHI	1-0 4	0-3 -10	14.0
IND	1-0 21	1-0 7	14.0
ATL	1-0 10	0-1 -3	13.0
CAR	1-0 11	1-1 0	11.0
NE	1-0 17	1-0 6	11.0
NO	1-0 5	2-0 16	-10.5
DET	0-1 -6	1-1 1	-6.5
SEA	2-3 -6	2-3 -0	-6.0
ARI	2-2 -1	3-1 5	-5.5
MIA	0-1 -12	0-1 -8	-4.0
NYJ	1-0 13	1-0 10	3.0
TEN	1-0 13	1-0 14	-1.0

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

TB @ LA (2025)7-3470%
IND @ LA (2025)20-2769%
DET @ LA (2025)34-4167%
SF @ IND (2025)48-2764%
TB @ BUF (2025)32-4460%

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	SF spread	LA spread	Total	Over	Under	SF ML	LA ML
betmgm	+3.5 -102	-3.5 -108	47.5	-110	-108	+170	-210
betonlineag	+3.5 -109	-3.5 -111	47.5	-112	-108	+174	-200
betrivers	+3.5 -108	-3.5 -113	47.5	-113	-108	+165	-205
betus	+3.5 -110	-3.5 -110	47.5	-110	-110	+170	-198
bovada	+4 -115	-4 -105	47.5	-120	+100	+170	-200
draftkings	+3.5 -105	-3.5 -115	47.5	-115	-105	+170	-205
fanatics	+3.5 -105	-3.5 -115	48.5	-105	-115	+165	-200
fanduel	+3.5 -108	-3.5 -112	47.5	-114	-106	+172	-205
lowvig	+3.5 +100	-3.5 -110	47.5	-109	-105	+174	-200
mybookieag	+3.5 -110	-3.5 -110	48	-110	-110	+165	-206
williamhill_us	+3.5 -107	-3.5 -111	47.5	-115	-105	+169	-205

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	SF ML	betonlineag	+174	44.5%	35.6%	8.9%	0.221
2	SF +3.5	lowvig	+100	54.0%	49.5%	4.5%	0.080
3	OVER 47.5	lowvig	-109	52.9%	50.5%	2.4%	0.015
4	SF +4	—	-115	54.0%	51.1%	2.9%	0.041
5	UNDER 47.5	bovada	+100	47.1%	49.5%	-2.4%	-0.059
6	LA ML	betus	-198	55.4%	64.4%	-9.0%	-0.165
7	OVER 48.5	—	-105	50.5%	48.9%	1.6%	-0.014
8	OVER 48	—	-110	50.5%	50.0%	0.5%	-0.011
9	LA -3.5	betmgm	-108	46.0%	50.5%	-4.5%	-0.115
10	UNDER 48.5	—	-115	49.5%	51.1%	-1.6%	-0.075
11	LA -4	—	-105	42.9%	48.9%	-6.0%	-0.132
12	UNDER 48	—	-110	47.1%	50.0%	-2.9%	-0.077

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

—

Timezone shift

—

SF rest

235.98263888888889 days

LA rest

228.04513888888889 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

matrixturf

Roof

dome

Indoor

Yes

Weather

Indoor venue (dome) — weather is not a factor.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

No Bet — Football evidence still developing

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

SF ML +174

Bookbetonlineag

Model prob44.5%

Fair prob35.6%

Edge8.9%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

LA spread-3.5 -111

Total47.5 o-113

MoneylineSF +170 / LA -205

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffThu, Sep 10, 2026 • 8:35 PM ET

Candidates12

Game info

KickoffThu, Sep 10, 2026 • 8:35 PM ET

VenueMelbourne Cricket Ground

Roofdome

Surfacematrixturf

NeutralYes

WeatherIndoor venue (dome) — weather is not a factor.

RestSF 235.98263888888889 / LA 228.04513888888889 days

Travel—