NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_NYJ

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Sun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ETNissan Stadium

New York

Jets

3-14 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

17–22

Titans by 5

Expected total 40

Tennessee

Titans

3-14 · 2025 Season

NYJ

34%

Model win probability

TEN

66%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects NYJ 17.1 – TEN 22.4 with a home win probability of 66.2%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 66.2% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 17.1 – 22.4.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 3 completed meeting(s), TEN 1 – NYJ 2, average total 46.7.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): NYJ 6-20 vs TEN 5-20.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.
Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

NYJ Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

TEN Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

TEN favoured

Home win probability 66.2% (price-blind).
Expected score 17.1 – 22.4.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

NYJMetricTEN

17.6#29

Points / Game

16.7#30

0.30#28

Points / Play

0.29#30

-11.9#32

Average Score Margin

-11.4#31

29.6#31

Opp Points / Game

28.1#28

0.48#30

Opp Points / Play

0.48#31

Efficiency

NYJMetricTEN

263.6#29

Yards / Game

260.2#31

4.44#30

Yards / Play

4.45#29

-0.13#29

EPA / Play

-0.16#30

40.7%#29

Success Rate

37.4%#31

6.4%#30

Explosive Play Rate

7.5%#24

357.2#25

Opp Yards / Game

346.5#21

5.77#23

Opp Yards / Play

5.94#28

+0.15#31

Opp EPA / Play

+0.10#28

45.6%#24

Opp Success Rate

45.1%#22

10.5%#28

Opp Explosive Play Rate

9.6%#21

Downs

NYJMetricTEN

34.9%#27

3rd Down %

31.9%#32

43.9%#29

4th Down %

45.7%#26

38.9%#12

Opp 3rd Down %

41.5%#20

Red Zone

NYJMetricTEN

52.9%#29

Red Zone TD %

61.0%#20

69.1%#28

Opp Red Zone TD %

70.8%#30

Turnovers

NYJMetricTEN

1.24#22

Turnovers / Game

1.06#13

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

—

NYJ

Cam Ward

TEN

—Games17

—Attempts540

—Completion %60%

—Pass yds / game186.4

—Yards / attempt5.87

—Pass TD15

—Interceptions7

—Sack rate9%

—EPA / dropback-0.190

—Success rate37%

—CPOE-1.86

—EPA under pressure-0.795

—EPA clean pocket0.083

—EPA play action—

—EPA vs blitz-0.553

NYJ QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -1.08Confidence: 72%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: RED_ZONE_PROFILE

Weaknesses: SACK_AVOIDANCE, TURNOVER_AVOIDANCE, DEEP_PASS_PROFILE, DECISION_EFFICIENCY

TEN QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.94Confidence: 81%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: TURNOVER_AVOIDANCE, RED_ZONE_PROFILE

Weaknesses: QB_BASE_QUALITY, THIRD_DOWN_PROFILE

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

NYJ

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

TEN

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

NYJ

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

TEN

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

NYJ

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

TEN

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

NYJ

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Breece HallRB	64%	48	36	350	243	1065	5
Justin FieldsQB	90%	1	0	0	71	383	4
Mason TaylorTE	81%	65	44	369	0	0	1
Brady CookQB	98%	0	0	0	13	49	0
John Metchie IIIWR	76%	44	29	256	3	-5	2
Jeremy RuckertTE	48%	29	23	179	0	0	1
Garrett WilsonWR	87%	59	36	395	0	0	4
Adonai MitchellWR	76%	58	24	301	1	-4	2
Tyrod TaylorQB	67%	0	0	0	27	143	1
Isaiah WilliamsWR	36%	36	26	193	3	34	0
Arian SmithWR	42%	16	7	52	4	13	0
Isaiah DavisRB	28%	28	21	186	43	236	1
Josh ReynoldsWR	84%	21	11	101	0	0	0
Tyler JohnsonWR	48%	18	12	197	0	0	1
Allen LazardWR	38%	18	10	70	0	0	1
Andrew BeckFB	12%	9	6	45	1	5	2
Braelon AllenRB	23%	3	2	17	18	76	1
Khalil HerbertRB	19%	4	1	4	16	52	0

TEN

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Cam WardQB	95%	0	0	0	39	159	2
Tony PollardRB	62%	41	33	206	242	1082	5
Elic AyomanorWR	81%	89	41	515	0	0	4
Chimere DikeWR	59%	74	48	423	11	18	4
Van JeffersonWR	65%	52	29	350	0	0	1
Gunnar HelmTE	53%	55	44	357	0	0	2
Tyjae SpearsRB	46%	50	45	264	72	283	2
Calvin RidleyWR	57%	36	17	303	0	0	0
Tyler LockettWR	45%	21	10	70	0	0	0
James ProcheWR	36%	12	6	65	0	0	0
David Martin-RobinsonTE	16%	6	4	30	0	0	1
Brandon AllenQB	91%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chig OkonkwoTE	0%	79	56	560	0	0	2
Mason KinseyWR	15%	4	2	48	0	0	0
Julius ChestnutRB	3%	2	0	0	11	40	0
Xavier RestrepoWR	22%	7	3	41	0	0	0
Bryce OliverWR	9%	1	1	8	0	0	0
Kalel MullingsRB	3%	0	0	0	3	7	0

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Practice
NYJ	Tim Patrick	WR	Did Not Participate In Practice
NYJ	Joseph Ossai	DE	Did Not Participate In Practice
NYJ	Breece Hall	RB	Full Participation in Practice
NYJ	Isaiah Davis	RB	Full Participation in Practice
NYJ	Kenyon Sadiq	TE	Full Participation in Practice
NYJ	D'Angelo Ponds	CB	Limited Participation in Practice
TEN	Cedric Gray	LB	Did Not Participate In Practice
TEN	Keldric Faulk	DE	Full Participation in Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

NYJ

CJosh Myers#1
FBAndrew Beck#1
FSMinkah Fitzpatrick#1
HAustin McNamara#1
KRKene Nwangwu#1
LCBNahshon Wright#1
LDEKingsley Enagbare#1
LDTT'Vondre Sweat#1
LGDylan Parham#1
LSThomas Hennessy#1
LTOlu Fashanu#1
MLBJamien Sherwood#1
NBJarvis Brownlee Jr.#1
PAustin McNamara#1
PKJason Sanders#1
PRIsaiah Williams#1
QBGeno Smith#1
RBBreece Hall#1
RCBBrandon Stephens#1
RDEWill McDonald IV#1
RDTHarrison Phillips#1
RGJoe Tippmann#1
RTArmand Membou#1
SLBKiko Mauigoa#1

TEN

CAustin Schlottmann#1
FSKevin Winston Jr.#1
HTommy Townsend#1
KRChimere Dike#1
LCBCor'Dale Flott#1
LDEJohn Franklin-Myers#1
LDTJeffery Simmons#1
LGPeter Skoronski#1
LSMorgan Cox#1
LTDan Moore Jr.#1
MLBCody Barton#1
NBMarcus Harris#1
PTommy Townsend#1
PKJoey Slye#1
PRChimere Dike#1
QBCam Ward#1
RBTony Pollard#1
RCBAlontae Taylor#1
RDEJermaine Johnson II#1
RDTJordan Elliott#1
RGCordell Volson#1
RTJC Latham#1
SLBJames Williams Sr.#1
SSAmani Hooker#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

NYJ

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	@ BUF	L	8–35	2.64	-0.256	0
2025-12-28	vs NE	L	10–42	4.87	-0.198	1
2025-12-21	@ NO	L	6–29	3.10	-0.357	2
2025-12-14	@ JAX	L	20–48	4.18	-0.157	3
2025-12-07	vs MIA	L	10–34	3.63	-0.453	3
2025-11-30	vs ATL	W	27–24	4.35	0.009	0
2025-11-23	@ BAL	L	10–23	4.95	-0.170	2
2025-11-14	@ NE	L	14–27	4.30	-0.085	1
2025-11-09	vs CLE	W	27–20	3.80	-0.295	1
2025-10-26	@ CIN	W	39–38	7.24	0.341	0

TEN

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	@ JAX	L	7–41	3.66	-0.349	1
2025-12-28	vs NO	L	26–34	4.67	-0.181	1
2025-12-21	vs KC	W	26–9	5.56	0.045	0
2025-12-14	@ SF	L	24–37	6.24	0.232	0
2025-12-07	@ CLE	W	31–29	4.56	-0.093	1
2025-11-30	vs JAX	L	3–25	3.42	-0.424	1
2025-11-23	vs SEA	L	24–30	4.35	-0.005	0
2025-11-16	vs HOU	L	13–16	4.02	-0.120	1
2025-11-02	vs LAC	L	20–27	4.68	-0.177	0
2025-10-26	@ IND	L	14–38	5.17	-0.087	1

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

NYJ 0-3 (3) · TEN 1-2 (3)

8.0Points For / Game19.7

35.3Points Against / Game28.0

-27.3Average Margin-8.3

3.62Yards / Play4.70

6.42Yards / Play Allowed5.89

-0.27EPA / Play-0.15

+0.26EPA / Play Allowed+0.07

32.9%Success Rate36.3%

52.2%Success Rate Allowed43.0%

4.0%Explosive Rate9.3%

12.6%Explosive Rate Allowed10.7%

27.3%3rd Down %38.3%

28.6%Red Zone TD %60.0%

1.00Turnovers / Game0.67

Last 5

NYJ 0-5 (5) · TEN 2-3 (5)

10.8Points For / Game22.8

37.6Points Against / Game30.0

-26.8Average Margin-7.2

3.75Yards / Play4.92

6.57Yards / Play Allowed6.04

-0.28EPA / Play-0.08

+0.26EPA / Play Allowed+0.09

35.2%Success Rate38.6%

52.8%Success Rate Allowed45.3%

4.7%Explosive Rate8.5%

13.0%Explosive Rate Allowed9.5%

29.6%3rd Down %37.0%

30.8%Red Zone TD %72.2%

1.80Turnovers / Game0.60

Last 10

NYJ 3-7 (10) · TEN 2-8 (10)

17.1Points For / Game18.8

32.0Points Against / Game28.6

-14.9Average Margin-9.8

4.40Yards / Play4.64

5.95Yards / Play Allowed6.02

-0.15EPA / Play-0.11

+0.18EPA / Play Allowed+0.10

39.4%Success Rate36.9%

49.0%Success Rate Allowed45.9%

6.1%Explosive Rate7.9%

11.8%Explosive Rate Allowed9.3%

36.2%3rd Down %34.0%

50.0%Red Zone TD %64.3%

1.30Turnovers / Game0.60

2025 Season

NYJ 3-14 (17) · TEN 3-14 (17)

17.6Points For / Game16.7

29.6Points Against / Game28.1

-11.9Average Margin-11.4

4.44Yards / Play4.45

5.77Yards / Play Allowed5.94

-0.13EPA / Play-0.16

+0.15EPA / Play Allowed+0.10

40.7%Success Rate37.4%

45.6%Success Rate Allowed45.1%

6.4%Explosive Rate7.5%

10.5%Explosive Rate Allowed9.6%

34.9%3rd Down %31.9%

52.9%Red Zone TD %61.0%

1.24Turnovers / Game1.06

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2018–2024

Head to head

3 meeting(s) · TEN 1 – NYJ 2 · avg total 46.7 · avg margin -2.0

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2024-09-15	NYJ @ TEN	24–17	41
2021-10-03	TEN @ NYJ	24–27	51
2018-12-02	NYJ @ TEN	22–26	48

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	NYJ	TEN	Margin edge
ARI	0-1 -25	1-0 1	-26.0
MIA	1-3 -6	1-0 19	-25.0
HOU	1-0 8	1-3 -8	16.3
NO	0-1 -23	0-1 -8	-15.0
IND	0-1 -1	0-4 -14	13.0
CIN	1-0 1	0-1 -10	11.0
DEN	0-2 -2	0-1 -8	6.5
JAX	1-1 -11	0-4 -17	6.3
BUF	0-4 -19	0-1 -24	5.0
CLE	1-0 7	1-0 2	5.0
LA	0-1 -10	0-1 -14	4.0
MIN	0-1 -6	0-1 -10	4.0
SEA	0-1 -5	0-1 -6	1.0
NE	1-3 -7	1-1 -8	0.8
SF	0-1 -13	0-1 -13	0.0

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	NYJ spread	TEN spread	Total	Over	Under	NYJ ML	TEN ML
betmgm	+1.5 -110	-1.5 -108	38.5	-108	-110	+105	-125
betonlineag	0 -104	0 -116	38.5	-110	-110	+130	-150
betrivers	+1.5 -112	-1.5 -109	38.5	-112	-109	+104	-125
betus	0 +100	0 -120	38.5	-110	-110	+129	-150
bovada	+1 -105	-1 -115	38.5	-110	-110	+100	-120
draftkings	+1.5 -110	-1.5 -110	38.5	-112	-108	+105	-125
fanatics	+1.5 -110	-1.5 -110	38.5	-110	-110	+100	-120
fanduel	+1.5 -110	-1.5 -110	38.5	-110	-110	+106	-124
lowvig	0 +101	0 -112	38.5	-107	-107	+130	-150
mybookieag	+1 -110	-1 -110	38.5	-110	-110	+102	-124
williamhill_us	+1.5 -109	-1.5 -109	38.5	-112	-108	+103	-122

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	TEN 0	lowvig	-112	66.2%	51.5%	14.7%	0.254
2	TEN -1.5	betmgm	-108	63.5%	50.0%	13.5%	0.223
3	TEN -1	mybookieag	-110	63.5%	50.5%	13.0%	0.240
4	TEN ML	bovada	-120	66.2%	53.0%	13.3%	0.214
5	OVER 38.5	lowvig	-107	51.8%	50.0%	1.8%	0.001
6	UNDER 38.5	lowvig	-107	48.2%	50.0%	-1.8%	-0.067
7	NYJ +1.5	williamhill_us	-109	36.5%	50.0%	-13.5%	-0.300
8	NYJ 0	lowvig	+101	33.7%	48.5%	-14.8%	-0.321
9	NYJ +1	bovada	-105	33.8%	49.5%	-15.7%	-0.313
10	NYJ ML	fanduel	+106	33.7%	47.0%	-13.3%	-0.305

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

757 mi

Timezone shift

0 h

NYJ rest

251.8159722222222 days

TEN rest

251.95833333333334 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

grass

Roof

outdoors

Indoor

Weather

No pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.
Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

No Bet — Football evidence still developing

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

TEN 0 -112

Booklowvig

Model prob66.2%

Fair prob51.5%

Edge14.7%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

TEN spread0 -116

Total38.5 o-110

MoneylineNYJ +104 / TEN -124

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffFri, Sep 11, 2026 • 10:06 AM ET

Candidates10

Game info

KickoffSun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ET

VenueNissan Stadium

Roofoutdoors

Surfacegrass

NeutralNo

WeatherNo pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

RestNYJ 251.8159722222222 / TEN 251.95833333333334 days

Travel757 mi