NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_NO

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Sun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ETFord Field

New Orleans

Saints

6-11 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

24–26

Lions by 2

Expected total 50

Detroit

Lions

9-8 · 2025 Season

46%

Model win probability

DET

54%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects NO 24.2 – DET 25.7 with a home win probability of 54.5%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 54.5% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 24.2 – 25.7.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 4 completed meeting(s), DET 2 – NO 2, average total 64.0.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): NO 6-14 vs DET 17-8.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_INSUFFICIENT_BOOKS) — there is no actionable bet.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

NO Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

DET Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

DET favoured

Home win probability 54.5% (price-blind).
Expected score 24.2 – 25.7.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

NOMetricDET

18.0#28

Points / Game

28.3#4

0.29#29

Points / Play

0.46#4

-4.5#25

Average Score Margin

+4.0#8

22.5#14

Opp Points / Game

24.3#22

0.37#14

Opp Points / Play

0.40#22

Efficiency

NOMetricDET

314.4#23

Yards / Game

373.8#5

5.02#27

Yards / Play

6.05#3

-0.09#27

EPA / Play

+0.08#6

42.0%#26

Success Rate

45.2%#12

5.6%#32

Explosive Play Rate

10.4%#7

301.3#9

Opp Yards / Game

333.2#17

4.98#7

Opp Yards / Play

5.45#18

-0.06#10

Opp EPA / Play

-0.01#14

41.8%#9

Opp Success Rate

41.7%#8

8.2%#13

Opp Explosive Play Rate

9.9%#23

Downs

NOMetricDET

39.6%#19

3rd Down %

39.0%#20

41.2%#31

4th Down %

58.1%#14

35.9%#6

Opp 3rd Down %

37.3%#9

Red Zone

NOMetricDET

50.0%#32

Red Zone TD %

69.6%#5

60.7%#12

Opp Red Zone TD %

68.1%#25

Turnovers

NOMetricDET

1.35#28

Turnovers / Game

0.88#6

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

Tyler Shough

Jared Goff

DET

11Games17

327Attempts578

68%Completion %68%

216.7Pass yds / game268.5

7.29Yards / attempt7.90

10Pass TD34

6Interceptions8

9%Sack rate6%

-0.029EPA / dropback0.173

43%Success rate48%

-2.75CPOE2.89

-0.702EPA under pressure-0.472

0.193EPA clean pocket0.449

—EPA play action—

0.127EPA vs blitz0.301

NO QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.37Confidence: 55%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

DET QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: 0.37Confidence: 75%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

DET

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

DET

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

NO

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

DET

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

NO

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Chris OlaveWR	84%	156	100	1163	1	-3	9
Tyler ShoughQB	83%	0	0	0	45	186	3
Juwan JohnsonTE	75%	102	77	889	0	0	3
Spencer RattlerQB	82%	2	1	0	31	167	0
Alvin KamaraRB	64%	39	33	186	131	471	1
Rashid ShaheedWR	74%	66	44	499	2	5	2
Devaughn VeleWR	62%	39	25	293	0	0	2
Brandin CooksWR	67%	25	19	165	0	0	0
Devin NealRB	44%	19	17	104	57	206	2
Taysom HillTE	25%	16	11	91	52	114	1
Mason TiptonWR	44%	17	11	76	4	18	0
Kevin Austin Jr.WR	66%	23	13	140	0	0	1
Foster MoreauTE	37%	10	7	59	0	0	0
Kendre MillerRB	24%	5	5	30	47	193	1
Jack StollTE	22%	11	6	46	0	0	1
Dante PettisWR	22%	11	9	127	0	0	0
Evan HullRB	19%	1	1	6	19	48	0
Audric EstiméRB	0%	13	12	103	46	198	1

DET

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Jared GoffQB	99%	0	0	0	19	45	0
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR	85%	172	117	1401	3	9	11
Jameson WilliamsWR	90%	102	65	1117	6	12	7
Jahmyr GibbsRB	67%	94	77	616	243	1223	18
David MontgomeryRB	37%	29	24	192	158	716	8
Sam LaPortaTE	91%	49	40	489	0	0	3
Isaac TeSlaaWR	43%	27	16	239	0	0	6
Kalif RaymondWR	37%	30	24	289	2	19	1
Brock WrightTE	61%	22	14	108	0	0	2
Anthony FirkserTE	48%	10	8	53	0	0	0
Ross DwelleyTE	31%	5	2	7	0	0	0
Shane ZylstraTE	66%	5	3	20	0	0	0
Tom KennedyWR	13%	4	4	36	0	0	0
Giovanni RicciTE	35%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Kyle AllenQB	10%	0	0	0	3	-3	0
Jacob SaylorsRB	1%	0	0	0	2	11	0
Craig ReynoldsRB	1%	0	0	0	3	4	0
Dominic LovettWR	3%	0	0	0	0	0	0

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Practice
DET	Trevor Nowaske	LB	Full Participation in Practice
DET	Christian Izien	S	Limited Participation in Practice
DET	Mekhi Wingo	DT	Limited Participation in Practice
DET	Thomas Harper	S	Full Participation in Practice
DET	Ennis Rakestraw Jr.	CB	Full Participation in Practice
DET	Derrick Moore	DE	Limited Participation in Practice
DET	Jimmy Rolder	LB	Full Participation in Practice
DET	Keith Abney II	CB	Full Participation in Practice
NO	Cameron Jordan	LB	Did Not Participate In Practice
NO	Alvin Kamara	RB	Limited Participation in Practice
NO	Audric Estimé	RB	Did Not Participate In Practice
NO	Oscar Delp	TE	Did Not Participate In Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

NO

CErik McCoy#1
FSJulian Blackmon#1
HRyan Wright#1
KRBarion Brown#1
LCBKool-Aid McKinstry#1
LDECameron Jordan#1
LGDavid Edwards#1
LILBKaden Elliss#1
LSZach Wood#1
LTKelvin Banks Jr.#1
NBJonas Sanker#1
NTDavon Godchaux#1
PRyan Wright#1
PKCharlie Smyth#1
PRBarion Brown#1
QBTyler Shough#1
RBTravis Etienne Jr.#1
RCBQuincy Riley#1
RDEJohn Ridgeway III#1
RGCesar Ruiz#1
RILBPete Werner#1
RTTaliese Fuaga#1
SLBChase Young#1
SSJustin Reid#1

DET

CJuice Scruggs#1
FSKerby Joseph#1
HJack Fox#1
KRJacob Saylors#1
LCBD.J. Reed#1
LDEAidan Hutchinson#1
LDTAlim McNeill#1
LGChristian Mahogany#1
LSHogan Hatten#1
LTPenei Sewell#1
MLBJack Campbell#1
NBRoger McCreary#1
PJack Fox#1
PKJake Bates#1
PRGreg Dortch#1
QBJared Goff#1
RBJahmyr Gibbs#1
RCBKeith Abney II#1
RDEDJ Wonnum#1
RDTLevi Onwuzurike#1
RGTate Ratledge#1
RTBlake Miller#1
SLBMalcolm Rodriguez#1
SSBrian Branch#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

NO

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	@ ATL	L	17–19	5.23	-0.114	2
2025-12-28	@ TEN	W	34–26	8.31	0.245	1
2025-12-21	vs NYJ	W	29–6	5.35	-0.006	1
2025-12-14	vs CAR	W	20–17	5.54	0.106	0
2025-12-07	@ TB	W	24–20	4.96	0.018	1
2025-11-30	@ MIA	L	17–21	4.17	-0.165	2
2025-11-23	vs ATL	L	10–24	3.76	-0.275	2
2025-11-09	@ CAR	W	17–7	6.16	0.162	0
2025-11-02	@ LA	L	10–34	5.74	-0.321	2
2025-10-26	vs TB	L	3–23	3.93	-0.473	4

DET

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	@ CHI	W	19–16	6.01	0.144	1
2025-12-25	@ MIN	L	10–23	3.61	-0.464	6
2025-12-21	vs PIT	L	24–29	5.32	0.101	0
2025-12-14	@ LA	L	34–41	6.39	0.156	0
2025-12-05	vs DAL	W	44–30	7.45	0.333	0
2025-11-27	vs GB	L	24–31	5.87	0.039	0
2025-11-23	vs NYG	W	34–27	7.84	0.148	1
2025-11-17	@ PHI	L	9–16	5.39	-0.401	1
2025-11-09	@ WAS	W	44–22	8.16	0.482	0
2025-11-02	vs MIN	L	24–27	4.92	-0.007	1

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

NO 2-1 (3) · DET 1-2 (3)

26.7Points For / Game17.7

17.0Points Against / Game22.7

+9.7Average Margin-5.0

6.09Yards / Play5.03

3.84Yards / Play Allowed5.23

+0.02EPA / Play-0.06

-0.26EPA / Play Allowed-0.00

40.4%Success Rate43.1%

32.1%Success Rate Allowed38.9%

8.3%Explosive Rate7.4%

5.2%Explosive Rate Allowed8.6%

40.9%3rd Down %40.5%

58.3%Red Zone TD %45.5%

1.33Turnovers / Game2.33

Last 5

NO 4-1 (5) · DET 2-3 (5)

24.8Points For / Game26.2

17.6Points Against / Game27.8

+7.2Average Margin-1.6

5.79Yards / Play5.71

4.16Yards / Play Allowed5.78

+0.04EPA / Play+0.05

-0.18EPA / Play Allowed+0.04

42.3%Success Rate42.7%

34.6%Success Rate Allowed44.2%

6.5%Explosive Rate9.7%

6.6%Explosive Rate Allowed10.3%

43.9%3rd Down %39.1%

63.2%Red Zone TD %63.6%

1.00Turnovers / Game1.40

Last 10

NO 5-5 (10) · DET 4-6 (10)

18.1Points For / Game26.6

19.7Points Against / Game26.2

-1.6Average Margin+0.4

5.18Yards / Play6.09

4.54Yards / Play Allowed5.66

-0.09EPA / Play+0.06

-0.13EPA / Play Allowed+0.05

41.2%Success Rate43.5%

38.7%Success Rate Allowed42.9%

5.2%Explosive Rate10.8%

7.6%Explosive Rate Allowed10.8%

41.5%3rd Down %39.5%

53.1%Red Zone TD %64.4%

1.50Turnovers / Game1.00

2025 Season

NO 6-11 (17) · DET 9-8 (17)

18.0Points For / Game28.3

22.5Points Against / Game24.3

-4.5Average Margin+4.0

5.02Yards / Play6.05

4.98Yards / Play Allowed5.45

-0.09EPA / Play+0.08

-0.06EPA / Play Allowed-0.01

42.0%Success Rate45.2%

41.8%Success Rate Allowed41.7%

5.6%Explosive Rate10.4%

8.2%Explosive Rate Allowed9.9%

39.6%3rd Down %39.0%

50.0%Red Zone TD %69.6%

1.35Turnovers / Game0.88

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2016–2023

Head to head

4 meeting(s) · DET 2 – NO 2 · avg total 64.0 · avg margin 0.0

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2023-12-03	DET @ NO	33–28	61
2020-10-04	NO @ DET	35–29	64
2017-10-15	DET @ NO	38–52	90
2016-12-04	DET @ NO	28–13	41

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	NO	DET	Margin edge
SEA	0-1 -31	1-0 13	-44.0
GB	0-1 -34	2-2 -2	-32.0
TEN	1-0 8	1-0 38	-30.0
CHI	0-1 -12	4-0 14	-25.5
TB	1-3 -12	1-1 6	-17.5
LA	0-2 -16	1-1 -1	-15.0
ARI	0-1 -7	1-0 7	-14.0
SF	0-1 -5	1-0 6	-11.0
BUF	0-1 -12	0-1 -6	-6.0
WAS	0-1 -1	1-1 4	-5.0
PHI	0-1 -3	0-1 -7	4.0
CLE	1-0 21	1-0 24	-3.0
DAL	1-0 25	2-0 26	-1.0
NYG	2-0 8	1-0 7	0.5
KC	0-1 -13	0-1 -13	0.0

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

NO @ BUF (2025)19-3176%
NO @ LA (2025)10-3470%
NO @ CHI (2025)14-2669%
CLE @ DET (2025)10-3466%
TB @ DET (2025)9-2463%
NO @ TB (2025)24-2061%

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	NO spread	DET spread	Total	Over	Under	NO ML	DET ML
betmgm	+7 -110	-7 -108	49.5	-110	-108	+250	-300
betonlineag	+7 -115	-7 -105	50	-110	-110	+252	-310
betrivers	+7 -113	-7 -108	50	-113	-108	+265	-345
betus	+7 -115	-7 -105	50	-110	-110	+255	-310
bovada	+7 -110	-7 -110	50	-105	-115	+265	-330
draftkings	+7 -112	-7 -108	50.5	-102	-118	+245	-305
fanatics	+7 -115	-7 -105	50	-110	-110	+250	-320
fanduel	+6.5 +100	-6.5 -122	49.5	-115	-105	+265	-330
lowvig	+7 -110	-7 +100	50	-107	-107	+252	-310
mybookieag	+7 -110	-7 -110	50	-110	-110	+250	-330
williamhill_us	+7 -113	-7 -106	49.5	-115	-105	+250	-320

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	NO +6.5	—	+100	63.2%	47.6%	15.5%	0.263
2	NO ML	—	+252	45.5%	27.3%	18.2%	0.601
3	NO +7	bovada	-110	63.2%	50.7%	12.5%	0.246
4	UNDER 50.5	—	-118	53.4%	51.7%	1.7%	-0.013
5	OVER 50	bovada	-105	46.6%	50.0%	-3.4%	-0.057
6	UNDER 50	lowvig	-107	50.1%	50.0%	0.1%	0.002
7	DET ML	betmgm	-300	54.5%	72.7%	-18.2%	-0.273
8	DET -6.5	—	-122	36.8%	52.4%	-15.5%	-0.330
9	OVER 50.5	—	-102	46.6%	48.3%	-1.7%	-0.078
10	UNDER 49.5	fanduel	-105	50.1%	48.9%	1.1%	-0.023
11	DET -7	lowvig	+100	32.8%	49.3%	-16.5%	-0.303
12	OVER 49.5	betmgm	-110	49.9%	51.1%	-1.1%	-0.046

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

941 mi

Timezone shift

+2 h

NO rest

251.95833333333334 days

DET rest

251.8159722222222 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

fieldturf

Roof

dome

Indoor

Yes

Weather

Indoor venue (dome) — weather is not a factor.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_INSUFFICIENT_BOOKS) — there is no actionable bet.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

Withhold insufficient books

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

NO ML +252

Book—

Model prob45.5%

Fair prob27.3%

Edge18.2%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

DET spread-6.5 -122

Total50 o-110

MoneylineNO +252 / DET -320

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffFri, Sep 11, 2026 • 10:04 AM ET

Candidates12

Game info

KickoffSun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ET

VenueFord Field

Roofdome

Surfacefieldturf

NeutralNo

WeatherIndoor venue (dome) — weather is not a factor.

RestNO 251.95833333333334 / DET 251.8159722222222 days

Travel941 mi