NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_MIA

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Sun, Sep 13, 2026 • 4:25 PM ETAllegiant Stadium

Miami

Dolphins

7-10 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

21–22

Raiders by 1

Expected total 43

Las Vegas

Raiders

3-14 · 2025 Season

MIA

48%

Model win probability

52%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects MIA 21.1 – LV 21.7 with a home win probability of 51.8%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 51.8% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 21.1 – 21.7.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 4 completed meeting(s), LV 1 – MIA 3, average total 49.0.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): MIA 9-12 vs LV 6-15.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_INSUFFICIENT_BOOKS) — there is no actionable bet.
Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

MIA Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

LV Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

LV favoured

Home win probability 51.8% (price-blind).
Expected score 21.1 – 21.7.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

MIAMetricLV

20.4#25

Points / Game

14.2#32

0.37#17

Points / Play

0.26#32

-4.5#24

Average Score Margin

-11.2#30

24.9#24

Opp Points / Game

25.4#25

0.42#25

Opp Points / Play

0.41#23

Efficiency

MIAMetricLV

301.2#25

Yards / Game

245.6#32

5.44#14

Yards / Play

4.43#31

-0.02#21

EPA / Play

-0.22#32

41.9%#27

Success Rate

37.6%#30

10.4%#6

Explosive Play Rate

6.9%#28

348.8#22

Opp Yards / Game

319.1#13

5.84#26

Opp Yards / Play

5.15#11

+0.09#26

Opp EPA / Play

+0.02#20

48.5%#30

Opp Success Rate

45.0%#21

9.9%#24

Opp Explosive Play Rate

7.9%#11

Downs

MIAMetricLV

35.4%#26

3rd Down %

34.3%#29

47.8%#24

4th Down %

40.6%#32

40.6%#17

Opp 3rd Down %

46.7%#31

Red Zone

MIAMetricLV

63.8%#13

Red Zone TD %

55.6%#27

65.8%#20

Opp Red Zone TD %

59.5%#10

Turnovers

MIAMetricLV

1.35#27

Turnovers / Game

1.29#25

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

UnavailableNo qualifying quarterback production exists before the cutoff.

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

MIA

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

MIA

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

MIA

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

LV

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

MIA

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Tua TagovailoaQB	95%	0	0	0	20	43	0
De'Von AchaneRB	75%	85	67	488	238	1350	12
Jaylen WaddleWR	78%	100	64	910	2	28	6
Malik WashingtonWR	57%	65	46	317	17	110	4
Julian HillTE	56%	20	15	140	0	0	0
Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR	43%	20	11	89	0	0	0
Ollie Gordon IIRB	22%	9	7	32	70	199	4
Quinn EwersQB	79%	1	1	-6	8	19	0
Darren WallerTE	45%	34	24	283	1	4	6
Greg DulcichTE	44%	33	26	335	1	-7	1
Alec IngoldFB	37%	11	8	52	2	9	0
Jaylen WrightRB	22%	9	5	44	70	288	2
Tyreek HillWR	69%	29	21	265	0	0	1
Tanner ConnerTE	33%	15	9	91	0	0	0
Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR	43%	9	5	44	0	0	0
Theo Wease Jr.WR	32%	10	6	139	0	0	1
Zach WilsonQB	11%	0	0	0	3	1	0
Tahj WashingtonWR	26%	5	3	37	0	0	0

LV

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Geno SmithQB	96%	0	0	0	41	109	0
Ashton JeantyRB	78%	73	55	346	266	975	10
Tre TuckerWR	95%	92	57	696	11	51	5
Brock BowersTE	86%	86	64	680	2	2	7
Michael MayerTE	62%	50	35	328	0	0	1
Jakobi MeyersWR	92%	49	33	352	0	0	0
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR	56%	30	10	135	0	0	0
Jack BechWR	44%	29	20	224	0	0	0
Tyler LockettWR	53%	34	22	221	0	0	1
Ian ThomasTE	40%	13	13	114	0	0	0
Raheem MostertRB	20%	12	12	70	22	104	0
Kenny PickettQB	28%	0	0	0	5	22	0
Zamir WhiteRB	19%	6	4	24	12	32	0
Aidan O'ConnellQB	82%	0	0	0	1	7	0
Alex BachmanWR	7%	3	2	12	0	0	0
Dylan LaubeRB	3%	4	3	18	7	9	0
Albert OkwuegbunamTE	46%	6	5	36	0	0	0
Shedrick JacksonWR	9%	5	4	56	1	3	1

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Practice
LV	Brock Bowers	TE	Did Not Participate In Practice
LV	Ashton Jeanty	RB	Full Participation in Practice
MIA	Ronnie Harrison	LB	Limited Participation in Practice
MIA	Will Kacmarek	TE	Limited Participation in Practice
MIA	Seydou Traore	TE	Full Participation in Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

MIA

CAaron Brewer#1
FBBen Sims#1
FSZayne Anderson#1
HBradley Pinion#1
KRMalik Washington#1
LCBJason Marshall Jr.#1
LDEChop Robinson#1
LDTKenneth Grant#1
LGKadyn Proctor#1
LSTucker Addington#1
LTPatrick Paul#1
MLBTyrel Dodson#1
NBChris Johnson#1
PBradley Pinion#1
PKRiley Patterson#1
PRMalik Washington#1
QBMalik Willis#1
RBDe'Von Achane#1
RCBJuJu Brents#1
RDEJosh Uche#1
RDTZach Sieler#1
RGJonah Savaiinaea#1
RTAustin Jackson#1
SLBTrey Moore#1

LV

CTyler Linderbaum#1
FBConnor Heyward#1
FSIsaiah Pola-Mao#1
HAJ Cole#1
KRDylan Laube#1
LCBEric Stokes#1
LDEThomas Booker IV#1
LGSpencer Burford#1
LILBNakobe Dean#1
LSAlex Ward#1
LTKolton Miller#1
NBTaron Johnson#1
NTAdam Butler#1
PAJ Cole#1
PKMatt Gay#1
PRTre Tucker#1
QBKirk Cousins#1
RBAshton Jeanty#1
RCBDarien Porter#1
RDEJonah Laulu#1
RGJackson Powers-Johnson#1
RILBQuay Walker#1
RTDJ Glaze#1
SLBKwity Paye#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

MIA

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	@ NE	L	10–38	3.33	-0.344	2
2025-12-28	vs TB	W	20–17	5.77	0.108	0
2025-12-21	vs CIN	L	21–45	6.71	-0.057	3
2025-12-16	@ PIT	L	15–28	5.70	-0.040	1
2025-12-07	@ NYJ	W	34–10	5.90	0.207	0
2025-11-30	vs NO	W	21–17	5.36	-0.135	1
2025-11-16	vs WAS	W	16–13	5.76	-0.020	0
2025-11-09	vs BUF	W	30–13	7.27	0.312	2
2025-10-31	vs BAL	L	6–28	5.44	-0.200	3
2025-10-26	@ ATL	W	34–10	5.20	0.143	0

LV

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	vs KC	W	14–12	3.34	-0.490	1
2025-12-28	vs NYG	L	10–34	4.28	-0.215	2
2025-12-21	@ HOU	L	21–23	5.94	-0.042	1
2025-12-14	@ PHI	L	0–31	1.79	-0.410	1
2025-12-07	vs DEN	L	17–24	4.87	-0.054	0
2025-11-30	@ LAC	L	14–31	3.49	-0.332	1
2025-11-23	vs CLE	L	10–24	3.57	-0.381	1
2025-11-18	vs DAL	L	16–33	4.16	-0.218	1
2025-11-07	@ DEN	L	7–10	3.24	-0.390	1
2025-11-02	vs JAX	L	29–30	5.43	0.139	1

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

MIA 1-2 (3) · LV 1-2 (3)

17.0Points For / Game15.0

33.3Points Against / Game23.0

-16.3Average Margin-8.0

5.30Yards / Play4.46

7.00Yards / Play Allowed4.34

-0.10EPA / Play-0.26

+0.25EPA / Play Allowed-0.13

39.6%Success Rate32.7%

55.6%Success Rate Allowed37.0%

9.8%Explosive Rate6.5%

11.2%Explosive Rate Allowed8.8%

31.4%3rd Down %30.2%

60.0%Red Zone TD %50.0%

1.67Turnovers / Game1.33

Last 5

MIA 2-3 (5) · LV 1-4 (5)

20.0Points For / Game12.4

27.6Points Against / Game24.8

-7.6Average Margin-12.4

5.51Yards / Play4.10

6.02Yards / Play Allowed4.79

-0.02EPA / Play-0.25

+0.11EPA / Play Allowed+0.01

43.3%Success Rate32.3%

50.8%Success Rate Allowed45.5%

11.3%Explosive Rate5.4%

9.4%Explosive Rate Allowed8.5%

28.3%3rd Down %31.3%

75.0%Red Zone TD %54.5%

1.20Turnovers / Game1.00

Last 10

MIA 6-4 (10) · LV 1-9 (10)

20.7Points For / Game13.8

21.9Points Against / Game25.2

-1.2Average Margin-11.4

5.63Yards / Play4.04

5.66Yards / Play Allowed5.00

-0.00EPA / Play-0.24

+0.03EPA / Play Allowed+0.01

44.0%Success Rate36.2%

48.3%Success Rate Allowed44.8%

12.3%Explosive Rate5.4%

9.2%Explosive Rate Allowed8.0%

30.6%3rd Down %31.7%

59.5%Red Zone TD %62.5%

1.20Turnovers / Game1.00

2025 Season

MIA 7-10 (17) · LV 3-14 (17)

20.4Points For / Game14.2

24.9Points Against / Game25.4

-4.5Average Margin-11.2

5.44Yards / Play4.43

5.84Yards / Play Allowed5.15

-0.02EPA / Play-0.22

+0.09EPA / Play Allowed+0.02

41.9%Success Rate37.6%

48.5%Success Rate Allowed45.0%

10.4%Explosive Rate6.9%

9.9%Explosive Rate Allowed7.9%

35.4%3rd Down %34.3%

63.8%Red Zone TD %55.6%

1.35Turnovers / Game1.29

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2020–2024

Head to head

4 meeting(s) · LV 1 – MIA 3 · avg total 49.0 · avg margin -5.0

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2024-11-17	LV @ MIA	19–34	53
2023-11-19	LV @ MIA	13–20	33
2021-09-26	MIA @ LV	28–31	59
2020-12-27	MIA @ LV	26–25	51

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	MIA	LV	Margin edge
ATL	1-0 24	0-1 -6	30.0
TEN	0-1 -19	1-0 10	-29.0
BAL	0-1 -22	1-0 3	-25.0
WAS	1-0 3	0-1 -17	20.0
IND	0-2 -16	0-1 -34	18.5
TB	1-0 3	0-1 -15	18.0
LA	1-0 8	0-1 -5	13.0
LAC	0-1 -2	0-4 -14	11.5
NO	1-0 4	1-0 15	-11.0
CAR	0-1 -3	0-1 -14	11.0
NE	2-2 -3	1-0 7	-9.5
CIN	0-1 -24	0-1 -17	-7.0
PIT	0-1 -13	0-1 -19	6.0
HOU	0-1 -8	0-1 -2	-6.0
CLE	1-1 -4	1-1 -5	1.0
JAX	1-0 3	1-1 2	1.0

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	MIA spread	LV spread	Total	Over	Under	MIA ML	LV ML
betmgm	+3 -105	-3 -115	40.5	-108	-110	+145	-175
betonlineag	+3 -107	-3 -113	40.5	-110	-110	+145	-165
betrivers	+3.5 -117	-3.5 -105	40	-110	-110	+135	-167
betus	+3 -105	-3 -115	40	-110	-110	+142	-165
bovada	+3 -105	-3 -115	40	-110	-110	+145	-170
draftkings	+3 -108	-3 -112	40.5	-112	-108	+142	-170
fanatics	+3 -105	-3 -115	40.5	-105	-115	+145	-175
fanduel	+3 -102	-3 -120	39.5	-112	-108	+146	-174
lowvig	+3 -102	-3 -108	40.5	-107	-107	+145	-165
mybookieag	+3 +100	-3 -120	40	-110	-110	+140	-173
williamhill_us	+3 -110	-3 -110	40.5	-109	-110	+140	-170

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	OVER 39.5	—	-112	58.4%	50.4%	8.0%	0.105
2	MIA ML	fanduel	+146	48.2%	39.6%	8.6%	0.185
3	MIA +3	mybookieag	+100	53.4%	48.9%	4.5%	0.114
4	OVER 40	bovada	-110	55.2%	50.0%	5.2%	0.086
5	MIA +3.5	—	-117	58.0%	51.3%	6.7%	0.076
6	OVER 40.5	fanatics	-105	55.2%	49.9%	5.3%	0.078
7	LV -3	lowvig	-108	42.0%	51.1%	-9.1%	-0.146
8	LV ML	betonlineag	-165	51.8%	60.4%	-8.6%	-0.168
9	UNDER 39.5	—	-108	41.6%	49.6%	-8.0%	-0.199
10	UNDER 40	bovada	-110	41.6%	50.0%	-8.4%	-0.174
11	UNDER 40.5	lowvig	-107	44.8%	50.1%	-5.3%	-0.134
12	LV -3.5	—	-105	42.0%	48.7%	-6.7%	-0.180

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

2171 mi

Timezone shift

-2 h

MIA rest

251.95833333333334 days

LV rest

251.95833333333334 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

grass

Roof

dome

Indoor

Yes

Weather

Indoor venue (dome) — weather is not a factor.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_INSUFFICIENT_BOOKS) — there is no actionable bet.
Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

Withhold insufficient books

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

MIA ML +146

Bookfanduel

Model prob48.2%

Fair prob39.6%

Edge8.6%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

LV spread-3 -115

Total40.5 o-108

MoneylineMIA +145 / LV -170

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffFri, Sep 11, 2026 • 10:05 AM ET

Candidates12

Game info

KickoffSun, Sep 13, 2026 • 4:25 PM ET

VenueAllegiant Stadium

Roofdome

Surfacegrass

NeutralNo

WeatherIndoor venue (dome) — weather is not a factor.

RestMIA 251.95833333333334 / LV 251.95833333333334 days

Travel2171 mi