NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_GB

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Sun, Sep 13, 2026 • 4:25 PM ETU.S. Bank Stadium

Green Bay

Packers

9-8-1 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

24–24

Pick 'em

Expected total 48

Minnesota

Vikings

9-8 · 2025 Season

50%

Model win probability

MIN

50%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects GB 24.2 – MIN 24.3 with a home win probability of 50.3%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 50.3% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 24.2 – 24.3.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 20 completed meeting(s), MIN 11 – GB 8, average total 43.8.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): GB 17-10 vs MIN 18-9.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

GB Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

MIN Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

MIN favoured

Home win probability 50.3% (price-blind).
Expected score 24.2 – 24.3.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

GBMetricMIN

23.2#14

Points / Game

20.2#26

0.39#12

Points / Play

0.36#19

+1.5#14

Average Score Margin

+0.6#17

21.7#11

Opp Points / Game

19.6#7

0.34#10

Opp Points / Play

0.33#6

Efficiency

GBMetricMIN

338.7#11

Yards / Game

276.1#28

5.73#9

Yards / Play

4.98#28

+0.12#3

EPA / Play

-0.12#28

47.5%#4

Success Rate

42.6%#23

10.7%#3

Explosive Play Rate

8.7%#15

319.8#14

Opp Yards / Game

283.4#2

5.08#9

Opp Yards / Play

4.74#3

+0.04#22

Opp EPA / Play

-0.10#3

44.4%#17

Opp Success Rate

41.0%#5

7.6%#7

Opp Explosive Play Rate

7.7%#8

Downs

GBMetricMIN

48.0%#2

3rd Down %

32.3%#31

60.7%#11

4th Down %

66.7%#5

41.5%#21

Opp 3rd Down %

34.5%#2

Red Zone

GBMetricMIN

65.3%#11

Red Zone TD %

58.9%#23

63.1%#18

Opp Red Zone TD %

49.1%#2

Turnovers

GBMetricMIN

0.72#2

Turnovers / Game

1.59#32

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

Jordan Love

—

MIN

15Games—

439Attempts—

66%Completion %—

225.4Pass yds / game—

7.70Yards / attempt—

23Pass TD—

6Interceptions—

5%Sack rate—

0.239EPA / dropback—

50%Success rate—

5.05CPOE—

-0.543EPA under pressure—

0.543EPA clean pocket—

—EPA play action—

0.302EPA vs blitz—

GB QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: 0.93Confidence: 65%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: RED_ZONE_PROFILE, SACK_AVOIDANCE, QB_BASE_QUALITY, TURNOVER_AVOIDANCE

MIN QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.48Confidence: 49%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

MIN

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

MIN

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

GB

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

MIN

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

GB

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Jordan LoveQB	94%	0	0	0	47	199	0
Romeo DoubsWR	78%	85	55	724	0	0	6
Josh JacobsRB	59%	44	36	282	234	929	14
Matthew GoldenWR	53%	44	29	361	10	49	0
Tucker KraftTE	86%	44	32	489	1	3	6
Christian WatsonWR	68%	55	35	611	1	3	6
Emanuel WilsonRB	31%	17	15	99	125	496	3
Dontayvion WicksWR	47%	46	30	332	1	6	2
Luke MusgraveTE	44%	31	24	252	0	0	0
John FitzPatrickTE	42%	15	12	72	0	0	1
Chris BrooksRB	20%	17	13	91	27	106	0
Jayden ReedWR	53%	22	19	207	3	28	1
Josh WhyleTE	51%	6	5	36	0	0	1
Malik WillisQB	42%	0	0	0	22	123	2
Malik HeathWR	31%	7	6	86	0	0	0
Savion WilliamsWR	12%	10	10	78	11	37	1
Clayton TuneQB	59%	0	0	0	5	23	0
Jakobie Keeney-JamesWR	94%	2	2	15	0	0	0

MIN

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Justin JeffersonWR	94%	141	84	1048	2	7	2
J.J. McCarthyQB	92%	0	0	0	37	181	4
Jordan AddisonWR	85%	79	42	610	2	81	4
T.J. HockensonTE	78%	66	51	438	1	0	3
Jalen NailorWR	65%	53	29	444	2	13	4
Jordan MasonRB	43%	16	14	51	159	758	6
Aaron JonesRB	55%	41	28	199	132	548	3
Carson WentzQB	93%	0	0	0	11	57	0
Josh OliverTE	51%	19	15	160	0	0	4
Max BrosmerQB	45%	0	0	0	7	11	0
Adam ThielenWR	33%	18	8	69	0	0	0
Zavier ScottRB	15%	16	14	98	32	114	1
C.J. HamFB	27%	2	2	11	3	5	2
Ben YurosekTE	24%	3	2	14	0	0	0
Ty ChandlerRB	22%	4	3	11	17	47	0
Ben SimsTE	30%	6	3	30	0	0	0
Tai FeltonWR	5%	3	3	25	0	0	0
Myles PriceWR	2%	0	0	0	0	0	0

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Practice
GB	Javon Hargrave	DT	Limited Participation in Practice
GB	Aaron Banks	G	Limited Participation in Practice
GB	Devonte Wyatt	DT	Limited Participation in Practice
GB	Zach Bako-Bewele	T	Limited Participation in Practice
GB	Ty'Ron Hopper	LB	Did Not Participate In Practice
GB	Jordan Morgan	T	Limited Participation in Practice
GB	Barryn Sorrell	LB	Limited Participation in Practice
GB	Warren Brinson	DT	Did Not Participate In Practice
MIN	Caleb Tiernan	T	Limited Participation in Practice
MIN	Jakobe Thomas	S	Did Not Participate In Practice
MIN	Jacob Thomas	S	Limited Participation in Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

GB

CSean Rhyan#1
FSXavier McKinney#1
HDaniel Whelan#1
KRSkyy Moore#1
LCBKeisean Nixon#1
LDEKarl Brooks#1
LGAaron Banks#1
LILBEdgerrin Cooper#1
LSMatt Orzech#1
LTJordan Morgan#1
NBJavon Bullard#1
NTJavon Hargrave#1
PDaniel Whelan#1
PKTrey Smack#1
PRSkyy Moore#1
QBJordan Love#1
RBJosh Jacobs#1
RCBCarrington Valentine#1
RDEDevonte Wyatt#1
RGAnthony Belton#1
RILBZaire Franklin#1
RTZach Bako-Bewele#1
SLBMicah Parsons#1
SSEvan Williams#1

MIN

CBlake Brandel#1
FBMax Bredeson#1
FSTheo Jackson#1
HJohnny Hekker#1
KRMyles Price#1
LCBIsaiah Rodgers#1
LDELevi Drake Rodriguez#1
LGDonovan Jackson#1
LILBEric Wilson#1
LSAndrew DePaola#1
LTChristian Darrisaw#1
NBByron Murphy Jr.#1
NTCaleb Banks#1
PJohnny Hekker#1
PKWill Reichard#1
PRMyles Price#1
QBKyler Murray#1
RBAaron Jones Sr.#1
RCBJames Pierre#1
RDEJalen Redmond#1
RGWill Fries#1
RILBBlake Cashman#1
RTBrian O'Neill#1
SLBDallas Turner#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

GB

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-11	@ CHI	L	27–31	6.01	0.218	0
2026-01-04	@ MIN	L	3–16	2.49	-0.329	0
2025-12-28	vs BAL	L	24–41	8.47	0.111	2
2025-12-21	@ CHI	L	16–22	5.68	0.061	1
2025-12-14	@ DEN	L	26–34	5.75	0.022	2
2025-12-07	vs CHI	W	28–21	6.63	0.240	1
2025-11-27	@ DET	W	31–24	6.35	0.289	0
2025-11-23	vs MIN	W	23–6	4.60	0.024	0
2025-11-16	@ NYG	W	27–20	5.73	0.350	0
2025-11-11	vs PHI	L	7–10	4.02	-0.173	2

MIN

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	vs GB	W	16–3	5.67	-0.043	1
2025-12-25	vs DET	W	23–10	3.16	-0.277	0
2025-12-21	@ NYG	W	16–13	4.42	-0.057	2
2025-12-15	@ DAL	W	34–26	6.43	0.226	1
2025-12-07	vs WAS	W	31–0	5.56	0.309	0
2025-11-30	@ SEA	L	0–26	3.33	-0.703	5
2025-11-23	@ GB	L	6–23	3.30	-0.429	2
2025-11-16	vs CHI	L	17–19	4.91	-0.193	2
2025-11-09	vs BAL	L	19–27	5.89	-0.161	2
2025-11-02	@ DET	W	27–24	4.78	-0.022	1

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

GB 0-3 (3) · MIN 3-0 (3)

18.0Points For / Game18.3

29.3Points Against / Game8.7

-11.3Average Margin+9.7

5.60Yards / Play4.51

5.70Yards / Play Allowed3.07

+0.02EPA / Play-0.12

+0.15EPA / Play Allowed-0.40

43.8%Success Rate42.4%

47.4%Success Rate Allowed32.3%

12.3%Explosive Rate7.1%

10.2%Explosive Rate Allowed5.0%

36.4%3rd Down %34.3%

77.8%Red Zone TD %44.4%

0.67Turnovers / Game1.00

Last 5

GB 0-5 (5) · MIN 5-0 (5)

19.2Points For / Game24.0

28.8Points Against / Game10.4

-9.6Average Margin+13.6

5.65Yards / Play5.08

5.95Yards / Play Allowed4.03

+0.03EPA / Play+0.03

+0.14EPA / Play Allowed-0.28

44.7%Success Rate45.7%

47.5%Success Rate Allowed36.2%

11.6%Explosive Rate8.3%

10.3%Explosive Rate Allowed7.2%

41.4%3rd Down %37.0%

47.4%Red Zone TD %66.7%

1.00Turnovers / Game0.80

Last 10

GB 4-6 (10) · MIN 6-4 (10)

21.2Points For / Game18.9

22.5Points Against / Game17.1

-1.3Average Margin+1.8

5.51Yards / Play4.82

5.41Yards / Play Allowed4.27

+0.08EPA / Play-0.12

+0.07EPA / Play Allowed-0.15

45.8%Success Rate41.3%

45.5%Success Rate Allowed39.7%

11.4%Explosive Rate8.7%

9.4%Explosive Rate Allowed6.8%

47.5%3rd Down %31.2%

66.7%Red Zone TD %59.4%

0.80Turnovers / Game1.60

2025 Season

GB 9-8-1 (18) · MIN 9-8 (17)

23.2Points For / Game20.2

21.7Points Against / Game19.6

+1.5Average Margin+0.6

5.73Yards / Play4.98

5.08Yards / Play Allowed4.74

+0.12EPA / Play-0.12

+0.04EPA / Play Allowed-0.10

47.5%Success Rate42.6%

44.4%Success Rate Allowed41.0%

10.7%Explosive Rate8.7%

7.6%Explosive Rate Allowed7.7%

48.0%3rd Down %32.3%

65.3%Red Zone TD %58.9%

0.72Turnovers / Game1.59

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2016–2025

Head to head

20 meeting(s) · MIN 11 – GB 8 – 1 tie(s) · avg total 43.8 · avg margin -1.8

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2026-01-04	GB @ MIN	3–16	19
2025-11-23	MIN @ GB	6–23	29
2024-12-29	GB @ MIN	25–27	52
2024-09-29	MIN @ GB	31–29	60
2024-01-01	GB @ MIN	33–10	43
2023-10-29	MIN @ GB	24–10	34
2023-01-01	MIN @ GB	17–41	58
2022-09-11	GB @ MIN	7–23	30
2022-01-03	MIN @ GB	10–37	47
2021-11-21	GB @ MIN	31–34	65
2020-11-01	MIN @ GB	28–22	50
2020-09-13	GB @ MIN	43–34	77
2019-12-24	GB @ MIN	23–10	33
2019-09-15	MIN @ GB	16–21	37
2018-11-26	GB @ MIN	17–24	41
2018-09-16	MIN @ GB	29–29	58
2017-12-24	MIN @ GB	16–0	16
2017-10-15	GB @ MIN	10–23	33
2016-12-24	MIN @ GB	25–38	63
2016-09-19	GB @ MIN	14–17	31

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	GB	MIN	Margin edge
CIN	1-0 9	1-0 38	-29.0
SEA	1-0 17	1-1 -12	28.5
HOU	1-0 2	1-0 27	-25.0
WAS	1-0 9	1-0 31	-22.0
SF	1-0 28	1-0 6	22.0
LA	1-0 5	0-2 -14	19.0
PIT	1-0 10	0-1 -3	13.0
ARI	2-0 13	1-0 1	11.5
BAL	0-1 -17	0-1 -8	-9.0
DAL	0-0 0	1-0 8	-8.0
CLE	0-1 -3	1-0 4	-7.0
CHI	2-3 -1	3-1 6	-6.3
TEN	1-0 16	1-0 10	6.0
NYG	1-0 7	2-0 13	-5.5
DET	2-2 2	2-2 -2	4.0
JAX	1-0 3	1-0 5	-2.0
IND	1-0 6	1-0 8	-2.0
PHI	0-3 -7	0-1 -6	-0.7

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

BAL @ MIN (2025)27-1967%
DET @ MIN (2025)10-2363%
GB @ CLE (2025)10-1361%
PHI @ MIN (2025)28-2260%

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	GB spread	MIN spread	Total	Over	Under	GB ML	MIN ML
betmgm	+1.5 -110	-1.5 -108	46.5	-108	-110	+105	-125
betonlineag	+1 -105	-1 -115	46	-115	-105	+103	-123
betrivers	+1.5 -112	-1.5 -109	46	-113	-108	+102	-124
betus	+1 -105	-1 -115	46	-115	-105	+105	-125
bovada	+2 -110	-2 -110	46	-110	-110	+110	-130
draftkings	+1.5 -112	-1.5 -108	46.5	-108	-112	+102	-122
fanatics	+1.5 -110	-1.5 -110	46.5	-110	-110	+105	-125
fanduel	+1.5 -110	-1.5 -110	46.5	-110	-110	+102	-120
lowvig	+1 +100	-1 -110	46	-113	-102	+103	-123
mybookieag	+1.5 -110	-1.5 -110	46.5	-110	-110	+101	-123
williamhill_us	+1.5 -110	-1.5 -109	46.5	-107	-114	+104	-122

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	OVER 46.5	williamhill_us	-107	54.5%	49.9%	4.7%	0.055
2	OVER 46	bovada	-110	54.5%	51.1%	3.5%	0.069
3	GB +2	—	-110	52.4%	50.0%	2.4%	0.024
4	GB ML	—	+103	49.6%	47.2%	2.4%	0.008
5	GB +1	lowvig	+100	49.6%	48.9%	0.7%	0.020
6	UNDER 46	lowvig	-102	42.7%	48.9%	-6.2%	-0.127
7	MIN ML	fanduel	-120	50.4%	52.8%	-2.5%	-0.077
8	MIN -2	—	-110	45.2%	50.0%	-4.8%	-0.112
9	UNDER 46.5	fanduel	-110	45.5%	50.1%	-4.7%	-0.132
10	GB +1.5	fanduel	-110	52.4%	50.1%	2.3%	-0.000
11	MIN -1	lowvig	-110	47.6%	51.1%	-3.5%	-0.063
12	MIN -1.5	draftkings	-108	47.6%	49.9%	-2.3%	-0.083

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

257 mi

Timezone shift

+1 h

GB rest

245.8090277777778 days

MIN rest

252.10069444444446 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

sportturf

Roof

dome

Indoor

Yes

Weather

Indoor venue (dome) — weather is not a factor.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

No Bet — Football evidence still developing

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

OVER 46.5 -107

Bookwilliamhill_us

Model prob54.5%

Fair prob49.9%

Edge4.7%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

MIN spread-2 -110

Total46.5 o-109

MoneylineGB +103 / MIN -123

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffFri, Sep 11, 2026 • 10:02 AM ET

Candidates12

Game info

KickoffSun, Sep 13, 2026 • 4:25 PM ET

VenueU.S. Bank Stadium

Roofdome

Surfacesportturf

NeutralNo

WeatherIndoor venue (dome) — weather is not a factor.

RestGB 245.8090277777778 / MIN 252.10069444444446 days

Travel257 mi