NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_DEN

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Mon, Sep 14, 2026 • 8:15 PM ETGEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Denver

Broncos

15-4 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

20–28

Chiefs by 8

Expected total 48

Kansas City

Chiefs

6-11 · 2025 Season

DEN

27%

Model win probability

73%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects DEN 19.6 – KC 27.9 with a home win probability of 73.2%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 73.2% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 19.6 – 27.9.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 20 completed meeting(s), KC 16 – DEN 4, average total 43.0.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): DEN 19-9 vs KC 20-11.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
2026 injury reports have not been published, so availability risk is unpriced in the descriptive view.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

DEN Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

KC Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

KC favoured

Home win probability 73.2% (price-blind).
Expected score 19.6 – 27.9.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

DENMetricKC

23.2#15

Points / Game

21.3#20

0.37#18

Points / Play

0.35#23

+4.7#7

Average Score Margin

+2.0#11

18.5#4

Opp Points / Game

19.3#5

0.29#2

Opp Points / Play

0.34#9

Efficiency

DENMetricKC

336.1#12

Yards / Game

321.6#20

5.31#17

Yards / Play

5.22#20

+0.03#13

EPA / Play

+0.03#11

43.4%#17

Success Rate

44.5%#15

7.9%#22

Explosive Play Rate

7.4%#25

283.7#3

Opp Yards / Game

302.4#10

4.52#1

Opp Yards / Play

5.26#13

-0.08#7

Opp EPA / Play

-0.02#12

37.3%#1

Opp Success Rate

43.6%#14

6.3%#1

Opp Explosive Play Rate

7.7%#10

Downs

DENMetricKC

42.4%#10

3rd Down %

38.0%#23

50.0%#21

4th Down %

75.0%#1

35.7%#5

Opp 3rd Down %

44.1%#28

Red Zone

DENMetricKC

61.8%#17

Red Zone TD %

56.7%#25

48.5%#1

Opp Red Zone TD %

55.2%#7

Turnovers

DENMetricKC

0.95#11

Turnovers / Game

0.88#5

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

Bo Nix

DEN

Patrick Mahomes

17Games14

612Attempts502

63%Completion %63%

231.2Pass yds / game256.2

6.42Yards / attempt7.15

25Pass TD22

11Interceptions11

3%Sack rate6%

0.092EPA / dropback0.127

44%Success rate48%

-1.11CPOE0.14

-0.377EPA under pressure-0.157

0.264EPA clean pocket0.251

—EPA play action—

0.194EPA vs blitz-0.095

DEN QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: 0.08Confidence: 86%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: SACK_AVOIDANCE

KC QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.07Confidence: 68%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Weaknesses: RED_ZONE_PROFILE

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

DEN

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

DEN

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

DEN

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

KC

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

DEN

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Bo NixQB	100%	1	0	0	83	356	5
Courtland SuttonWR	85%	124	74	1017	0	0	7
Troy FranklinWR	60%	104	65	709	5	12	6
RJ HarveyRB	42%	58	47	356	146	540	12
Adam TrautmanTE	60%	23	20	195	0	0	1
Evan EngramTE	42%	76	50	461	1	7	1
J.K. DobbinsRB	51%	14	11	37	153	772	4
Pat BryantWR	53%	49	31	378	0	0	1
Marvin Mims Jr.WR	37%	51	37	322	12	78	2
Tyler BadieRB	18%	31	19	141	8	23	0
Adam PrenticeFB	20%	8	6	53	10	44	0
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR	41%	15	9	101	0	0	1
Nate AdkinsTE	31%	11	6	48	0	0	1
Jaleel McLaughlinRB	16%	6	4	27	37	187	1
Trent SherfieldWR	31%	4	3	21	0	0	0
Lucas KrullTE	36%	4	2	15	0	0	0
Marcedes LewisTE	33%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michael BandyWR	6%	4	4	50	0	0	1

KC

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Patrick MahomesQB	97%	1	1	-10	64	422	5
Travis KelceTE	82%	108	76	851	1	1	5
Xavier WorthyWR	71%	73	42	532	11	87	1
Kareem HuntRB	47%	25	18	143	163	611	9
JuJu Smith-SchusterWR	57%	45	33	345	0	0	1
Marquise BrownWR	54%	74	49	587	0	0	5
Isiah PachecoRB	52%	26	19	101	118	462	2
Noah GrayTE	53%	37	21	178	0	0	0
Rashee RiceWR	75%	78	53	571	5	20	6
Tyquan ThorntonWR	43%	37	19	438	0	0	3
Brashard SmithRB	17%	35	25	172	44	151	1
Chris OladokunQB	75%	0	0	0	5	18	0
Gardner MinshewQB	17%	0	0	0	6	2	0
Jalen RoyalsWR	43%	3	2	4	0	0	0
Shane BuecheleQB	45%	0	0	0	1	4	0
Nikko RemigioWR	3%	1	1	21	1	11	0
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB	11%	2	2	9	7	13	0
Jared WileyTE	17%	1	1	4	0	0	0

Availability & injuries

No current report

Unavailable2026 injury reports are not published yet.

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

DEN

CLuke Wattenberg#1
FBAdam Prentice#1
FSBrandon Jones#1
HJeremy Crawshaw#1
KRMarvin Mims Jr.#1
LCBRiley Moss#1
LDEMalcolm Roach#1
LGBen Powers#1
LILBAlex Singleton#1
LSMitchell Fraboni#1
LTGarett Bolles#1
NBJa'Quan McMillian#1
NTD.J. Jones#1
PJeremy Crawshaw#1
PKWil Lutz#1
PRMarvin Mims Jr.#1
QBBo Nix#1
RBJ.K. Dobbins#1
RCBPat Surtain II#1
RDEZach Allen#1
RGQuinn Meinerz#1
RILBJustin Strnad#1
RTMike McGlinchey#1
SLBNik Bonitto#1

KC

CCreed Humphrey#1
FSAlohi Gilman#1
HMatt Araiza#1
KRNikko Remigio#1
LCBL'Jarius Sneed#1
LDEGeorge Karlaftis#1
LDTChris Jones#1
LGKingsley Suamataia#1
LSJames Winchester#1
LTJosh Simmons#1
MLBNick Bolton#1
NBKader Kohou#1
PMatt Araiza#1
PKHarrison Butker#1
PRNikko Remigio#1
QBPatrick Mahomes#1
RBKenneth Walker III#1
RCBMansoor Delane#1
RDEFelix Anudike-Uzomah#1
RDTKhyiris Tonga#1
RGTrey Smith#1
RTKahlil Benson#1
SLBCole Christiansen#1
SSChamarri Conner#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

DEN

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-25	vs NE	L	7–10	3.12	-0.313	2
2026-01-17	vs BUF	W	33–30	5.35	0.034	1
2026-01-04	vs LAC	W	19–3	4.32	-0.185	0
2025-12-26	@ KC	W	20–13	4.34	0.097	1
2025-12-21	vs JAX	L	20–34	6.85	-0.033	2
2025-12-14	vs GB	W	34–26	6.14	0.165	1
2025-12-07	@ LV	W	24–17	4.94	0.155	0
2025-12-01	@ WAS	W	27–26	5.83	0.183	1
2025-11-16	vs KC	W	22–19	5.72	0.033	0
2025-11-07	vs LV	W	10–7	4.04	-0.252	2

KC

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	@ LV	L	12–14	2.71	-0.468	2
2025-12-26	vs DEN	L	13–20	3.39	-0.199	0
2025-12-21	@ TEN	L	9–26	3.09	-0.313	0
2025-12-14	vs LAC	L	13–16	4.05	-0.106	2
2025-12-08	vs HOU	L	10–20	4.35	-0.293	3
2025-11-27	@ DAL	L	28–31	6.03	0.250	0
2025-11-23	vs IND	W	23–20	5.39	0.014	2
2025-11-16	@ DEN	L	19–22	5.02	0.045	1
2025-11-02	@ BUF	L	21–28	5.29	0.035	1
2025-10-28	vs WAS	W	28–7	6.56	0.251	2

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

DEN 2-1 (3) · KC 0-3 (3)

19.7Points For / Game11.3

14.3Points Against / Game20.0

+5.3Average Margin-8.7

4.31Yards / Play3.01

4.27Yards / Play Allowed4.45

-0.15EPA / Play-0.35

-0.14EPA / Play Allowed-0.10

36.1%Success Rate28.8%

37.6%Success Rate Allowed41.7%

6.1%Explosive Rate4.8%

6.8%Explosive Rate Allowed8.0%

37.8%3rd Down %21.6%

33.3%Red Zone TD %20.0%

1.00Turnovers / Game0.67

Last 5

DEN 3-2 (5) · KC 0-5 (5)

19.8Points For / Game11.4

18.0Points Against / Game19.2

+1.8Average Margin-7.8

4.84Yards / Play3.56

4.33Yards / Play Allowed4.46

-0.07EPA / Play-0.28

-0.10EPA / Play Allowed-0.09

41.3%Success Rate33.6%

36.3%Success Rate Allowed40.9%

7.0%Explosive Rate4.9%

7.6%Explosive Rate Allowed6.5%

42.9%3rd Down %27.7%

42.1%Red Zone TD %30.0%

1.20Turnovers / Game1.40

Last 10

DEN 8-2 (10) · KC 2-8 (10)

21.6Points For / Game17.6

18.5Points Against / Game20.4

+3.1Average Margin-2.8

5.10Yards / Play4.72

4.56Yards / Play Allowed5.19

+0.00EPA / Play-0.06

-0.07EPA / Play Allowed-0.01

44.4%Success Rate40.1%

37.8%Success Rate Allowed43.0%

6.9%Explosive Rate7.4%

7.2%Explosive Rate Allowed7.7%

43.4%3rd Down %32.3%

50.0%Red Zone TD %50.0%

1.00Turnovers / Game1.30

2025 Season

DEN 15-4 (19) · KC 6-11 (17)

23.2Points For / Game21.3

18.5Points Against / Game19.3

+4.7Average Margin+2.0

5.31Yards / Play5.22

4.52Yards / Play Allowed5.26

+0.03EPA / Play+0.03

-0.08EPA / Play Allowed-0.02

43.4%Success Rate44.5%

37.3%Success Rate Allowed43.6%

7.9%Explosive Rate7.4%

6.3%Explosive Rate Allowed7.7%

42.4%3rd Down %38.0%

61.8%Red Zone TD %56.7%

0.95Turnovers / Game0.88

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2016–2025

Head to head

20 meeting(s) · KC 16 – DEN 4 · avg total 43.0 · avg margin 5.2

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2025-12-26	DEN @ KC	20–13	33
2025-11-16	KC @ DEN	19–22	41
2025-01-05	KC @ DEN	0–38	38
2024-11-10	DEN @ KC	14–16	30
2023-10-29	KC @ DEN	9–24	33
2023-10-13	DEN @ KC	8–19	27
2023-01-01	DEN @ KC	24–27	51
2022-12-11	KC @ DEN	34–28	62
2022-01-08	KC @ DEN	28–24	52
2021-12-06	DEN @ KC	9–22	31
2020-12-07	DEN @ KC	16–22	38
2020-10-25	KC @ DEN	43–16	59
2019-12-15	DEN @ KC	3–23	26
2019-10-18	KC @ DEN	30–6	36
2018-10-28	DEN @ KC	23–30	53
2018-10-02	KC @ DEN	27–23	50
2017-12-31	KC @ DEN	27–24	51
2017-10-31	DEN @ KC	19–29	48
2016-12-26	DEN @ KC	10–33	43
2016-11-28	KC @ DEN	30–27	57

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	DEN	KC	Margin edge
BAL	0-1 -31	2-0 12	-43.0
ATL	1-0 32	1-0 5	27.0
PIT	0-1 -7	1-0 19	-26.0
TEN	1-0 8	0-1 -17	25.0
DAL	1-0 20	0-1 -3	23.0
WAS	1-0 1	1-0 21	-20.0
PHI	1-0 4	0-2 -11	14.5
TB	1-0 19	1-0 6	13.0
NYG	1-0 1	1-0 13	-12.0
JAX	0-1 -14	0-1 -3	-11.0
CAR	1-0 14	1-0 3	11.0
NO	1-0 23	1-0 13	10.0
CIN	1-1 10	1-0 1	8.5
BUF	1-1 -11	1-2 -4	-6.2
IND	1-1 9	1-0 3	5.5
CLE	1-0 9	1-0 14	-5.0
HOU	1-0 3	2-1 2	0.7
LV	4-0 9	3-1 10	-0.5
LAC	1-3 -0	2-2 0	-0.3

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

DEN @ PHI (2025)21-1777%
PHI @ KC (2025)20-1773%
LAC @ KC (2025)16-1373%
DEN @ LAC (2025)20-2371%
HOU @ KC (2025)20-1069%
KC @ DEN (2025)19-2260%

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	DEN spread	KC spread	Total	Over	Under	DEN ML	KC ML
betmgm	+2.5 -105	-2.5 -115	43.5	-110	-108	+120	-145
betonlineag	+2.5 -104	-2.5 -116	43.5	-115	-105	+125	-145
betrivers	+2.5 -103	-2.5 -118	43.5	-108	-113	+120	-148
betus	+2 +100	-2 -120	43.5	-115	-105	+125	-145
bovada	+2.5 -105	-2.5 -115	43.5	-110	-110	+125	-145
draftkings	+2.5 -102	-2.5 -118	43.5	-115	-105	+124	-148
fanatics	+2.5 -105	-2.5 -115	43.5	-110	-110	+120	-145
fanduel	+2.5 -105	-2.5 -115	43.5	-108	-112	+120	-142
lowvig	+2.5 +101	-2.5 -112	43.5	-113	-102	+125	-145
mybookieag	+2.5 -110	-2.5 -110	43.5	-110	-110	+118	-151
williamhill_us	+2.5 -103	-2.5 -117	43.5	-112	-108	+123	-145

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	KC -2.5	mybookieag	-110	68.6%	51.2%	17.4%	0.310
2	KC ML	fanduel	-142	73.2%	56.9%	16.3%	0.247
3	KC -2	—	-120	68.6%	52.2%	16.4%	0.280
4	OVER 43.5	fanduel	-108	60.2%	50.2%	10.0%	0.160
5	DEN +2.5	lowvig	+101	31.4%	48.8%	-17.4%	-0.369
6	UNDER 43.5	lowvig	-102	39.8%	49.8%	-10.0%	-0.212
7	DEN ML	betonlineag	+125	26.8%	43.1%	-16.3%	-0.396
8	DEN +2	—	+100	29.1%	47.8%	-18.7%	-0.395

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

564 mi

Timezone shift

+2 h

DEN rest

232.17708333333334 days

KC rest

253.11805555555554 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

grass

Roof

outdoors

Indoor

Weather

No pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
2026 injury reports have not been published, so availability risk is unpriced in the descriptive view.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

No Bet — Football evidence still developing

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

KC -2.5 -110

Bookmybookieag

Model prob68.6%

Fair prob51.2%

Edge17.4%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

KC spread-2.5 -115

Total43.5 o-110

MoneylineDEN +123 / KC -145

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffFri, Sep 11, 2026 • 10:03 AM ET

Candidates8

Game info

KickoffMon, Sep 14, 2026 • 8:15 PM ET

VenueGEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Roofoutdoors

Surfacegrass

NeutralNo

WeatherNo pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

RestDEN 232.17708333333334 / KC 253.11805555555554 days

Travel564 mi