NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_DAL

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Sun, Sep 13, 2026 • 8:20 PM ETMetLife Stadium

Dallas

Cowboys

7-9-1 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

25–20

Cowboys by 5

Expected total 45

New York

Giants

4-13 · 2025 Season

DAL

66%

Model win probability

NYG

34%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects DAL 25.1 – NYG 19.7 with a home win probability of 33.9%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 33.9% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 25.1 – 19.7.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 20 completed meeting(s), NYG 4 – DAL 16, average total 46.8.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): DAL 10-16 vs NYG 4-23.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.
Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

DAL Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

NYG Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

DAL favoured

Home win probability 33.9% (price-blind).
Expected score 25.1 – 19.7.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

DALMetricNYG

27.7#5

Points / Game

22.4#16

0.43#9

Points / Play

0.35#22

-2.4#20

Average Score Margin

-3.4#22

30.1#32

Opp Points / Game

25.8#26

0.50#32

Opp Points / Play

0.43#27

Efficiency

DALMetricNYG

392.9#2

Yards / Game

334.2#14

6.06#2

Yards / Play

5.27#19

+0.10#4

EPA / Play

+0.01#16

46.6%#5

Success Rate

42.1%#25

8.7%#14

Explosive Play Rate

8.8%#12

378.5#30

Opp Yards / Game

361.4#28

6.27#31

Opp Yards / Play

5.95#29

+0.17#32

Opp EPA / Play

+0.09#25

48.9%#32

Opp Success Rate

47.0%#26

11.0%#31

Opp Explosive Play Rate

11.0%#32

Downs

DALMetricNYG

42.9%#8

3rd Down %

40.4%#16

64.7%#7

4th Down %

46.2%#25

47.5%#32

Opp 3rd Down %

40.0%#14

Red Zone

DALMetricNYG

62.3%#16

Red Zone TD %

58.1%#24

72.0%#31

Opp Red Zone TD %

67.6%#24

Turnovers

DALMetricNYG

1.24#23

Turnovers / Game

0.94#9

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

Dak Prescott

DAL

Jaxson Dart

NYG

17Games14

600Attempts339

67%Completion %64%

267.8Pass yds / game162.3

7.59Yards / attempt6.70

30Pass TD15

10Interceptions5

5%Sack rate9%

0.168EPA / dropback-0.022

48%Success rate41%

1.79CPOE-0.56

-0.280EPA under pressure-0.569

0.361EPA clean pocket0.210

—EPA play action—

0.115EPA vs blitz-0.015

DAL QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: 0.37Confidence: 84%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

NYG QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.44Confidence: 59%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: TURNOVER_AVOIDANCE

Weaknesses: SACK_AVOIDANCE

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

DAL

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

NYG

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

DAL

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

NYG

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

DAL

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

NYG

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

DAL

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Dak PrescottQB	95%	0	0	0	53	177	2
George PickensWR	81%	137	93	1429	0	0	9
Javonte WilliamsRB	69%	51	35	137	252	1201	13
Jake FergusonTE	67%	102	82	600	1	1	8
CeeDee LambWR	78%	117	75	1077	1	2	3
Ryan FlournoyWR	48%	56	40	475	4	25	4
Jalen TolbertWR	55%	34	18	203	0	0	1
KaVontae TurpinWR	35%	38	26	396	17	89	2
Luke SchoonmakerTE	33%	23	14	132	0	0	0
Brevyn Spann-FordTE	25%	13	9	90	0	0	1
Hunter LuepkeRB	22%	15	13	109	16	71	1
Malik DavisRB	21%	5	2	16	52	250	2
Jaydon BlueRB	26%	1	1	5	38	129	1
Miles SandersRB	22%	8	8	30	20	117	1
Jonathan MingoWR	24%	5	1	25	0	0	0
Joe Milton IIIQB	21%	0	0	0	5	50	0
Phil MafahRB	18%	2	2	11	5	18	1
Jalen Moreno-CropperWR	6%	0	0	0	0	0	0

NYG

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Jaxson DartQB	84%	0	0	0	86	487	9
Wan'Dale RobinsonWR	91%	140	92	1014	3	5	4
Theo JohnsonTE	87%	74	45	528	0	0	5
Darius SlaytonWR	81%	63	37	538	0	0	1
Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB	54%	48	36	288	176	740	4
Daniel BellingerTE	51%	26	19	286	0	0	2
Devin SingletaryRB	28%	19	18	151	119	437	5
Cam SkatteboRB	52%	32	24	207	101	410	7
Isaiah HodginsWR	83%	19	10	115	0	0	1
Russell WilsonQB	54%	0	0	0	18	106	0
Malik NabersWR	80%	35	18	271	0	0	2
Jameis WinstonQB	68%	1	1	33	7	23	2
Jalin HyattWR	31%	14	5	35	0	0	0
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR	87%	10	4	55	0	0	0
Gunner OlszewskiWR	10%	13	10	145	0	0	1
Chris ManhertzTE	28%	2	1	7	0	0	0
Ray-Ray McCloudWR	59%	1	1	5	0	0	0
Beaux CollinsWR	17%	6	2	25	0	0	0

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Practice
DAL	Jonathan Bullard	DT	Full Participation in Practice
DAL	Ajani Cornelius	T	Limited Participation in Practice
NYG	Shelby Harris	DT	Full Participation in Practice
NYG	Andrew Thomas	T	Full Participation in Practice
NYG	Malik Nabers	WR	Full Participation in Practice
NYG	Bryan Hudson	C	Full Participation in Practice
NYG	Theo Johnson	TE	Full Participation in Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

DAL

CCooper Beebe#1
FBHunter Luepke#1
FSMalik Hooker#1
HBryan Anger#1
KRKaVontae Turpin#1
LCBCobie Durant#1
LDEQuinnen Williams#1
LGTyler Smith#1
LILBDeMarvion Overshown#1
LSTrent Sieg#1
LTTyler Guyton#1
NBCaleb Downs#1
NTOtito Ogbonnia#1
PBryan Anger#1
PKBrandon Aubrey#1
PRKaVontae Turpin#1
QBDak Prescott#1
RBJavonte Williams#1
RCBDaRon Bland#1
RDEKenny Clark#1
RGTyler Booker#1
RILBDee Winters#1
RTTerence Steele#1
SLBDonovan Ezeiruaku#1

NYG

CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.#1
FBPatrick Ricard#1
FSJevon Holland#1
HJordan Stout#1
KRDeonte Banks#1
LCBPaulson Adebo#1
LDEShelby Harris#1
LGJon Runyan#1
LILBArvell Reese#1
LSBen Mann#1
LTAndrew Thomas#1
NBDru Phillips#1
NTDJ Reader#1
PJordan Stout#1
PKBen Sauls#1
PRXavier Gipson#1
QBJaxson Dart#1
RBCam Skattebo#1
RCBGreg Newsome II#1
RDEDarius Alexander#1
RGFrancis Mauigoa#1
RILBTremaine Edmunds#1
RTJermaine Eluemunor#1
SLBAbdul Carter#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

DAL

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	@ NYG	L	17–34	5.42	-0.130	2
2025-12-25	@ WAS	W	30–23	5.52	0.213	0
2025-12-21	vs LAC	L	17–34	6.07	0.034	1
2025-12-15	vs MIN	L	26–34	6.13	0.111	0
2025-12-05	@ DET	L	30–44	5.44	-0.013	3
2025-11-27	vs KC	W	31–28	7.40	0.218	1
2025-11-23	vs PHI	W	24–21	7.31	-0.022	2
2025-11-18	@ LV	W	33–16	6.31	0.134	1
2025-11-04	vs ARI	L	17–27	5.20	-0.111	3
2025-10-26	@ DEN	L	24–44	4.99	0.057	2

NYG

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	vs DAL	W	34–17	5.46	0.135	1
2025-12-28	@ LV	W	34–10	5.75	0.239	0
2025-12-21	vs MIN	L	13–16	2.94	-0.379	1
2025-12-14	vs WAS	L	21–29	5.73	0.020	1
2025-12-02	@ NE	L	15–33	4.46	-0.108	0
2025-11-23	@ DET	L	27–34	6.82	0.117	1
2025-11-16	vs GB	L	20–27	4.96	0.152	2
2025-11-09	@ CHI	L	20–24	6.16	0.005	1
2025-11-02	vs SF	L	24–34	5.29	0.170	0
2025-10-26	@ PHI	L	20–38	5.04	0.090	0

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

DAL 1-2 (3) · NYG 2-1 (3)

21.3Points For / Game27.0

30.3Points Against / Game14.3

-9.0Average Margin+12.7

5.65Yards / Play4.88

6.81Yards / Play Allowed4.70

+0.07EPA / Play+0.03

+0.26EPA / Play Allowed-0.13

46.9%Success Rate43.3%

49.7%Success Rate Allowed42.0%

8.2%Explosive Rate9.6%

12.9%Explosive Rate Allowed8.6%

40.5%3rd Down %44.4%

58.3%Red Zone TD %42.9%

1.00Turnovers / Game0.67

Last 5

DAL 1-4 (5) · NYG 2-3 (5)

24.0Points For / Game23.4

33.8Points Against / Game21.0

-9.8Average Margin+2.4

5.70Yards / Play4.99

6.87Yards / Play Allowed5.40

+0.06EPA / Play+0.00

+0.27EPA / Play Allowed-0.04

45.9%Success Rate43.1%

49.1%Success Rate Allowed44.6%

9.4%Explosive Rate8.0%

13.4%Explosive Rate Allowed10.1%

35.9%3rd Down %37.3%

52.4%Red Zone TD %55.0%

1.20Turnovers / Game0.60

Last 10

DAL 4-6 (10) · NYG 2-8 (10)

24.9Points For / Game22.8

30.5Points Against / Game26.2

-5.6Average Margin-3.4

5.95Yards / Play5.38

6.32Yards / Play Allowed6.12

+0.06EPA / Play+0.06

+0.19EPA / Play Allowed+0.11

46.7%Success Rate42.7%

47.6%Success Rate Allowed48.1%

8.9%Explosive Rate9.9%

11.2%Explosive Rate Allowed12.4%

41.0%3rd Down %40.6%

54.5%Red Zone TD %57.1%

1.50Turnovers / Game0.70

2025 Season

DAL 7-9-1 (17) · NYG 4-13 (17)

27.7Points For / Game22.4

30.1Points Against / Game25.8

-2.4Average Margin-3.4

6.06Yards / Play5.27

6.27Yards / Play Allowed5.95

+0.10EPA / Play+0.01

+0.17EPA / Play Allowed+0.09

46.6%Success Rate42.1%

48.9%Success Rate Allowed47.0%

8.7%Explosive Rate8.8%

11.0%Explosive Rate Allowed11.0%

42.9%3rd Down %40.4%

62.3%Red Zone TD %58.1%

1.24Turnovers / Game0.94

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2016–2025

Head to head

20 meeting(s) · NYG 4 – DAL 16 · avg total 46.8 · avg margin -10.0

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2026-01-04	DAL @ NYG	17–34	51
2025-09-14	NYG @ DAL	37–40	77
2024-11-28	NYG @ DAL	20–27	47
2024-09-27	DAL @ NYG	20–15	35
2023-11-12	NYG @ DAL	17–49	66
2023-09-11	DAL @ NYG	40–0	40
2022-11-24	NYG @ DAL	20–28	48
2022-09-27	DAL @ NYG	23–16	39
2021-12-19	DAL @ NYG	21–6	27
2021-10-10	NYG @ DAL	20–44	64
2021-01-03	DAL @ NYG	19–23	42
2020-10-11	NYG @ DAL	34–37	71
2019-11-05	DAL @ NYG	37–18	55
2019-09-08	NYG @ DAL	17–35	52
2018-12-30	DAL @ NYG	36–35	71
2018-09-17	NYG @ DAL	13–20	33
2017-12-10	DAL @ NYG	30–10	40
2017-09-11	NYG @ DAL	3–19	22
2016-12-12	DAL @ NYG	7–10	17
2016-09-11	NYG @ DAL	20–19	39

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	DAL	NYG	Margin edge
TB	1-0 2	0-1 -23	25.0
ATL	0-1 -6	0-1 -27	21.0
LAC	0-1 -17	1-0 3	-20.0
DET	0-2 -26	0-1 -7	-19.0
DEN	0-1 -20	0-1 -1	-19.0
BAL	0-1 -3	0-1 -21	18.0
NO	0-1 -25	0-2 -8	-17.5
WAS	3-1 8	0-4 -8	16.0
KC	1-0 3	0-1 -13	16.0
CHI	0-1 -17	0-1 -4	-13.0
PIT	1-0 3	0-1 -8	11.0
CLE	1-0 16	1-0 6	10.0
CAR	1-1 7	0-1 -3	9.5
PHI	1-3 -16	1-3 -8	-7.5
LV	1-0 17	1-0 24	-7.0
GB	0-0 0	0-1 -7	7.0
MIN	0-1 -8	0-2 -13	4.5
SF	0-1 -6	0-1 -10	4.0
CIN	0-1 -7	0-1 -10	3.0

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	DAL spread	NYG spread	Total	Over	Under	DAL ML	NYG ML
betmgm	-3 -105	+3 -112	48	-110	-108	-160	+135
betonlineag	-3 -107	+3 -113	48	-108	-112	-158	+138
betrivers	-3 -106	+3 -115	48	-108	-113	-157	+132
betus	-3 -105	+3 -115	48	-108	-112	-160	+138
bovada	-3 -105	+3 -115	48	-110	-110	-165	+140
draftkings	-3 -105	+3 -115	48.5	-105	-115	-162	+136
fanatics	-3 -105	+3 -115	48	-110	-110	-165	+135
fanduel	-2.5 -115	+2.5 -105	48.5	-105	-115	-154	+130
lowvig	-3 -102	+3 -108	48	-105	-109	-158	+138
mybookieag	-3 +100	+3 -120	48	-110	-110	-162	+132
williamhill_us	-3 -107	+3 -113	48	-112	-108	-159	+134

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	UNDER 48	betmgm	-108	59.6%	50.0%	9.6%	0.170
2	DAL -3	—	-105	56.6%	49.0%	7.6%	0.150
3	DAL ML	fanduel	-154	66.1%	59.3%	6.8%	0.090
4	DAL -2.5	—	-115	61.2%	51.1%	10.1%	0.144
5	UNDER 48.5	fanduel	-115	61.8%	51.1%	10.8%	0.156
6	NYG ML	bovada	+140	33.9%	40.7%	-6.8%	-0.186
7	OVER 48	lowvig	-105	38.2%	50.0%	-11.8%	-0.232
8	NYG +3	—	-115	38.8%	51.0%	-12.2%	-0.228
9	NYG +2.5	—	-105	38.8%	48.9%	-10.1%	-0.242
10	OVER 48.5	fanduel	-105	38.2%	48.9%	-10.8%	-0.255

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

1385 mi

Timezone shift

+2 h

DAL rest

252.26388888888889 days

NYG rest

252.26388888888889 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

fieldturf

Roof

outdoors

Indoor

Weather

No pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.
Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

No Bet — Football evidence still developing

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

UNDER 48 -108

Bookbetmgm

Model prob59.6%

Fair prob50.0%

Edge9.6%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

NYG spread+3 -115

Total48 o-110

MoneylineDAL -160 / NYG +135

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffFri, Sep 11, 2026 • 10:00 AM ET

Candidates10

Game info

KickoffSun, Sep 13, 2026 • 8:20 PM ET

VenueMetLife Stadium

Roofoutdoors

Surfacefieldturf

NeutralNo

WeatherNo pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

RestDAL 252.26388888888889 / NYG 252.26388888888889 days

Travel1385 mi