NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_CLE

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Sun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ETEverBank Stadium

Cleveland

Browns

5-12 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

19–22

Jaguars by 3

Expected total 41

Jacksonville

Jaguars

13-5 · 2025 Season

CLE

42%

Model win probability

JAX

58%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects CLE 19.2 – JAX 21.9 with a home win probability of 58.0%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 58.0% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 19.2 – 21.9.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 4 completed meeting(s), JAX 1 – CLE 3, average total 41.8.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): CLE 4-17 vs JAX 11-11.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.
Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

CLE Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

JAX Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

JAX favoured

Home win probability 58.0% (price-blind).
Expected score 19.2 – 21.9.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

CLEMetricJAX

16.4#31

Points / Game

27.7#6

0.27#31

Points / Play

0.44#7

-5.9#28

Average Score Margin

+7.5#4

22.3#13

Opp Points / Game

20.2#9

0.38#17

Opp Points / Play

0.33#8

Efficiency

CLEMetricJAX

262.5#30

Yards / Game

339.6#10

4.34#32

Yards / Play

5.42#15

-0.19#31

EPA / Play

+0.03#14

34.5%#32

Success Rate

44.7%#13

6.4%#31

Explosive Play Rate

8.7%#16

284.8#4

Opp Yards / Game

306.7#11

4.87#5

Opp Yards / Play

5.06#8

-0.10#4

Opp EPA / Play

-0.09#6

40.2%#4

Opp Success Rate

41.7%#7

8.4%#16

Opp Explosive Play Rate

7.0%#4

Downs

CLEMetricJAX

34.5%#28

3rd Down %

40.9%#15

44.8%#27

4th Down %

56.7%#17

37.2%#8

Opp 3rd Down %

41.1%#19

Red Zone

CLEMetricJAX

55.3%#28

Red Zone TD %

65.9%#9

64.5%#19

Opp Red Zone TD %

68.3%#26

Turnovers

CLEMetricJAX

1.41#29

Turnovers / Game

1.11#15

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

—

CLE

Trevor Lawrence

JAX

—Games17

—Attempts560

—Completion %61%

—Pass yds / game235.7

—Yards / attempt7.16

—Pass TD29

—Interceptions12

—Sack rate7%

—EPA / dropback0.055

—Success rate46%

—CPOE-1.26

—EPA under pressure-0.521

—EPA clean pocket0.259

—EPA play action—

—EPA vs blitz0.127

CLE QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: —Confidence: —Support: INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT

JAX QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: 0.08Confidence: 96%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

CLE

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

JAX

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

CLE

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

JAX

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

CLE

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

JAX

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

CLE

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Jerry JeudyWR	85%	106	50	602	1	5	2
Harold Fannin Jr.TE	76%	107	72	731	7	13	7
Quinshon JudkinsRB	51%	36	26	171	230	827	7
Shedeur SandersQB	92%	0	0	0	21	169	1
Dillon GabrielQB	56%	0	0	0	14	86	0
Cedric TillmanWR	66%	39	21	270	0	0	2
David NjokuTE	65%	48	33	293	0	0	4
Isaiah BondWR	48%	44	18	338	5	29	0
Joe FlaccoQB	97%	0	0	0	6	13	0
Dylan SampsonRB	26%	40	33	271	65	175	2
Jerome FordRB	30%	32	26	103	24	73	0
Malachi CorleyWR	27%	14	11	79	13	127	0
Jamari ThrashWR	34%	15	10	107	0	0	0
Gage LarvadainWR	24%	14	7	71	1	3	0
Blake WhiteheartTE	33%	6	2	4	0	0	0
Brenden BatesTE	40%	3	2	25	0	0	0
Raheim SandersRB	26%	4	3	21	27	92	1
Trayveon WilliamsRB	27%	8	7	55	7	37	0

JAX

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Trevor LawrenceQB	97%	0	0	0	82	359	9
Travis EtienneRB	60%	52	36	292	260	1107	13
Brian Thomas Jr.WR	78%	91	48	707	3	21	3
Parker WashingtonWR	61%	95	58	847	7	0	5
Brenton StrangeTE	75%	60	46	540	0	0	3
Jakobi MeyersWR	79%	61	42	483	5	13	3
Dyami BrownWR	44%	37	20	227	6	30	1
Johnny MundtTE	39%	19	9	111	0	0	0
Bhayshul TutenRB	21%	14	10	79	83	307	7
Tim PatrickWR	30%	24	15	187	0	0	3
LeQuint Allen Jr.RB	23%	11	10	54	23	94	0
Hunter LongTE	47%	17	12	85	0	0	2
Quintin MorrisTE	24%	9	6	55	0	0	1
Austin TrammellWR	23%	10	3	46	0	0	0
Nick MullensQB	11%	0	0	0	12	-8	0
Tim JonesWR	14%	1	1	15	0	0	0
Tank BigsbyRB	21%	0	0	0	5	12	0
DeeJay DallasRB	5%	1	0	0	2	21	0

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Practice
CLE	Maliek Collins	DT	Limited Participation in Practice
CLE	Teven Jenkins	G	Limited Participation in Practice
CLE	Carson Schwesinger	LB	Full Participation in Practice
CLE	Parker Brailsford	C	Limited Participation in Practice
JAX	Jakobi Meyers	WR	Limited Participation in Practice
JAX	Cole Van Lanen	T	Limited Participation in Practice
JAX	LeQuint Allen Jr.	RB	Did Not Participate In Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

CLE

CElgton Jenkins#1
FBMichael Burton#1
FSRonnie Hickman#1
HCorey Bojorquez#1
KRMalachi Corley#1
LCBDenzel Ward#1
LDEAlex Wright#1
LDTMason Graham#1
LGZion Johnson#1
LSRex Sunahara#1
LTSpencer Fano#1
MLBCarson Schwesinger#1
NBMyles Harden#1
PCorey Bojorquez#1
PKAndre Szmyt#1
PRGage Larvadain#1
QBDeshaun Watson#1
RBQuinshon Judkins#1
RCBTyson Campbell#1
RDEJared Verse#1
RDTMaliek Collins#1
RGTeven Jenkins#1
RTTytus Howard#1
SLBQuincy Williams#1

JAX

CRobert Hainsey#1
FSAntonio Johnson#1
HLogan Cooke#1
KRBhayshul Tuten#1
LCBTravis Hunter#1
LDETravon Walker#1
LDTArik Armstead#1
LGEzra Cleveland#1
LSRoss Matiscik#1
LTCole Van Lanen#1
MLBVentrell Miller#1
NBJourdan Lewis#1
PLogan Cooke#1
PKCam Little#1
PRParker Washington#1
QBTrevor Lawrence#1
RBBhayshul Tuten#1
RCBMontaric Brown#1
RDEJosh Hines-Allen#1
RDTDaVon Hamilton#1
RGPatrick Mekari#1
RTWalker Little#1
SLBJack Kiser#1
SSEric Murray#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

CLE

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	@ CIN	W	20–18	3.85	-0.125	1
2025-12-28	vs PIT	W	13–6	5.37	-0.234	2
2025-12-21	vs BUF	L	20–23	4.59	-0.096	2
2025-12-14	@ CHI	L	3–31	3.43	-0.466	3
2025-12-07	vs TEN	L	29–31	6.24	-0.057	2
2025-11-30	vs SF	L	8–26	4.18	-0.195	1
2025-11-23	@ LV	W	24–10	5.77	-0.218	2
2025-11-16	vs BAL	L	16–23	3.46	-0.409	1
2025-11-09	@ NYJ	L	20–27	3.97	-0.082	0
2025-10-26	@ NE	L	13–32	4.02	-0.349	2

JAX

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-11	vs BUF	L	24–27	6.65	0.027	2
2026-01-04	vs TEN	W	41–7	5.84	0.219	0
2025-12-28	@ IND	W	23–17	5.44	0.006	2
2025-12-21	@ DEN	W	34–20	5.09	0.088	0
2025-12-14	vs NYJ	W	48–20	7.86	0.327	1
2025-12-07	vs IND	W	36–19	5.85	0.091	1
2025-11-30	@ TEN	W	25–3	5.09	-0.006	0
2025-11-23	@ ARI	W	27–24	6.20	-0.188	4
2025-11-16	vs LAC	W	35–6	5.00	0.080	1
2025-11-09	@ HOU	L	29–36	3.80	-0.236	2

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

CLE 2-1 (3) · JAX 2-1 (3)

17.7Points For / Game29.3

15.7Points Against / Game17.0

+2.0Average Margin+12.3

4.59Yards / Play5.93

5.15Yards / Play Allowed4.44

-0.15EPA / Play+0.08

-0.10EPA / Play Allowed-0.09

39.4%Success Rate47.5%

51.1%Success Rate Allowed38.3%

6.1%Explosive Rate11.9%

8.4%Explosive Rate Allowed5.4%

46.2%3rd Down %51.6%

42.9%Red Zone TD %69.2%

1.67Turnovers / Game1.33

Last 5

CLE 2-3 (5) · JAX 4-1 (5)

17.0Points For / Game34.0

21.8Points Against / Game18.2

-4.8Average Margin+15.8

4.74Yards / Play6.10

5.15Yards / Play Allowed4.90

-0.19EPA / Play+0.13

-0.07EPA / Play Allowed-0.09

36.9%Success Rate46.2%

46.6%Success Rate Allowed40.7%

6.3%Explosive Rate11.6%

8.5%Explosive Rate Allowed7.0%

41.8%3rd Down %51.9%

53.8%Red Zone TD %73.1%

2.00Turnovers / Game1.00

Last 10

CLE 3-7 (10) · JAX 8-2 (10)

16.6Points For / Game32.2

22.7Points Against / Game17.9

-6.1Average Margin+14.3

4.48Yards / Play5.65

4.99Yards / Play Allowed4.61

-0.21EPA / Play+0.04

-0.10EPA / Play Allowed-0.15

34.8%Success Rate44.5%

41.4%Success Rate Allowed39.3%

7.2%Explosive Rate9.8%

8.2%Explosive Rate Allowed6.5%

33.6%3rd Down %44.6%

55.6%Red Zone TD %70.6%

1.60Turnovers / Game1.30

2025 Season

CLE 5-12 (17) · JAX 13-5 (18)

16.4Points For / Game27.7

22.3Points Against / Game20.2

-5.9Average Margin+7.5

4.34Yards / Play5.42

4.87Yards / Play Allowed5.06

-0.19EPA / Play+0.03

-0.10EPA / Play Allowed-0.09

34.5%Success Rate44.7%

40.2%Success Rate Allowed41.7%

6.4%Explosive Rate8.7%

8.4%Explosive Rate Allowed7.0%

34.5%3rd Down %40.9%

55.3%Red Zone TD %65.9%

1.41Turnovers / Game1.11

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2017–2024

Head to head

4 meeting(s) · JAX 1 – CLE 3 · avg total 41.8 · avg margin 0.3

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2024-09-15	CLE @ JAX	18–13	31
2023-12-10	JAX @ CLE	27–31	58
2020-11-29	CLE @ JAX	27–25	52
2017-11-19	JAX @ CLE	19–7	26

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	CLE	JAX	Margin edge
LAC	0-1 -17	1-0 29	-46.0
NE	0-1 -19	1-0 16	-35.0
SF	0-1 -18	1-0 5	-23.0
DEN	0-1 -9	1-0 14	-23.0
DET	0-1 -24	0-1 -46	22.0
TEN	0-1 -2	4-0 17	-18.8
NYJ	0-1 -7	1-1 11	-17.5
BUF	0-1 -3	0-2 -20	17.0
KC	0-1 -14	1-0 3	-17.0
CHI	0-1 -28	0-1 -19	-9.0
LV	1-1 5	1-1 -2	7.0
MIA	1-1 4	0-1 -3	7.0
GB	1-0 3	0-1 -3	6.0
CIN	1-3 -6	0-1 -4	-2.0
MIN	0-1 -4	0-1 -5	1.0
PHI	0-1 -4	0-1 -5	1.0

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	CLE spread	JAX spread	Total	Over	Under	CLE ML	JAX ML
betmgm	+8.5 -108	-8.5 -110	40	-110	-108	+333	-425
betonlineag	+9 -115	-9 -105	40	-112	-108	+316	-400
betrivers	+8.5 -110	-8.5 -110	40.5	-107	-114	+320	-420
betus	+9 -115	-9 -105	40	-110	-110	+320	-400
bovada	+8.5 -110	-8.5 -110	40	-110	-110	+310	-415
draftkings	+8.5 -110	-8.5 -110	39.5	-118	-102	+360	-470
fanatics	+8.5 -110	-8.5 -110	40	-110	-110	+325	-425
fanduel	+8.5 -112	-8.5 -108	40.5	-105	-115	+350	-450
lowvig	+9 -110	-9 +100	40	-109	-105	+316	-400
mybookieag	+9 -110	-9 -110	40	-110	-110	+340	-461
williamhill_us	+8.5 -110	-8.5 -108	40	-121	-114	+320	-420

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	CLE +8.5	betmgm	-108	67.0%	50.0%	17.0%	0.291
2	CLE +9	lowvig	-110	67.0%	51.1%	15.9%	0.303
3	CLE ML	—	+320	41.9%	22.8%	19.2%	0.762
4	OVER 39.5	—	-118	52.9%	51.7%	1.1%	-0.023
5	JAX -9	lowvig	+100	30.6%	48.9%	-18.3%	-0.364
6	UNDER 40	lowvig	-105	47.1%	49.9%	-2.8%	-0.049
7	JAX -8.5	fanduel	-108	33.0%	50.0%	-17.0%	-0.365
8	UNDER 39.5	—	-102	47.1%	48.3%	-1.1%	-0.067
9	OVER 40	lowvig	-109	49.8%	50.1%	-0.3%	-0.015
10	JAX ML	betonlineag	-400	58.0%	77.2%	-19.2%	-0.274
11	OVER 40.5	fanduel	-105	49.8%	49.1%	0.7%	-0.028
12	UNDER 40.5	betrivers	-114	50.2%	50.9%	-0.7%	-0.057

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

—

Timezone shift

—

CLE rest

251.95833333333334 days

JAX rest

244.95833333333334 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

grass

Roof

outdoors

Indoor

Weather

No pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.
Comparable-profile sample is too thin to support a similarity read.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

No Bet — Football evidence still developing

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

CLE +8.5 -108

Bookbetmgm

Model prob67.0%

Fair prob50.0%

Edge17.0%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

JAX spread-9 -105

Total40 o-110

MoneylineCLE +320 / JAX -420

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffFri, Sep 11, 2026 • 10:04 AM ET

Candidates12

Game info

KickoffSun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ET

VenueEverBank Stadium

Roofoutdoors

Surfacegrass

NeutralNo

WeatherNo pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

RestCLE 251.95833333333334 / JAX 244.95833333333334 days

Travel—