NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_CHI

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Sun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ETBank of America Stadium

Chicago

Bears

12-7 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

20–21

Panthers by 2

Expected total 41

Carolina

Panthers

8-10 · 2025 Season

CHI

45%

Model win probability

CAR

55%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects CHI 19.7 – CAR 21.3 with a home win probability of 55.0%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 55.0% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 19.7 – 21.3.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 4 completed meeting(s), CAR 0 – CHI 4, average total 33.5.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): CHI 12-9 vs CAR 7-13.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

CHI Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

CAR Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

CAR favoured

Home win probability 55.0% (price-blind).
Expected score 19.7 – 21.3.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

CHIMetricCAR

25.7#9

Points / Game

19.0#27

0.39#14

Points / Play

0.32#27

+1.4#15

Average Score Margin

-4.0#23

24.3#23

Opp Points / Game

23.0#16

0.40#21

Opp Points / Play

0.39#19

Efficiency

CHIMetricCAR

376.8#4

Yards / Game

299.0#26

5.70#10

Yards / Play

5.08#26

+0.07#7

EPA / Play

-0.04#26

45.4%#11

Success Rate

43.1%#21

10.2%#8

Explosive Play Rate

7.9%#21

364.4#29

Opp Yards / Game

333.1#16

5.93#27

Opp Yards / Play

5.61#21

+0.03#21

Opp EPA / Play

+0.07#24

45.9%#25

Opp Success Rate

44.6%#19

10.8%#30

Opp Explosive Play Rate

8.0%#12

Downs

CHIMetricCAR

43.6%#6

3rd Down %

36.7%#25

48.8%#23

4th Down %

64.3%#8

40.1%#15

Opp 3rd Down %

46.6%#30

Red Zone

CHIMetricCAR

64.6%#12

Red Zone TD %

61.7%#19

67.1%#22

Opp Red Zone TD %

61.1%#14

Turnovers

CHIMetricCAR

0.79#3

Turnovers / Game

1.22#20

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

Caleb Williams

CHI

Bryce Young

CAR

17Games16

568Attempts478

58%Completion %64%

231.9Pass yds / game188.2

6.94Yards / attempt6.30

27Pass TD23

7Interceptions11

4%Sack rate5%

0.071EPA / dropback-0.043

43%Success rate43%

-3.37CPOE1.27

-0.321EPA under pressure-0.444

0.238EPA clean pocket0.129

—EPA play action—

0.195EPA vs blitz-0.210

CHI QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: 0.03Confidence: 88%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: SACK_AVOIDANCE

Weaknesses: ACCURACY

CAR QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.43Confidence: 76%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: DEEP_PASS_PROFILE

Weaknesses: THIRD_DOWN_PROFILE

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

CAR

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

CHI

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

CAR

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

CHI

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

CHI

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

CAR

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

CHI

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Caleb WilliamsQB	99%	2	2	22	77	383	4
DJ MooreWR	85%	85	50	682	15	79	7
D'Andre SwiftRB	58%	48	34	299	223	1087	10
Rome OdunzeWR	88%	90	44	661	0	0	6
Cole KmetTE	71%	48	30	347	0	0	2
Colston LovelandTE	65%	82	58	713	1	-2	6
Kyle MonangaiRB	41%	30	18	164	169	783	5
Olamide ZaccheausWR	60%	65	39	313	4	25	2
Luther Burden IIIWR	40%	60	47	652	6	37	2
Durham SmytheTE	27%	6	4	25	0	0	0
Jahdae WalkerWR	22%	10	6	87	0	0	2
Devin DuvernayWR	4%	5	2	26	0	0	0
Brittain BrownRB	10%	1	0	0	5	37	1
Tyson BagentQB	9%	0	0	0	2	7	0
Travis HomerRB	1%	0	0	0	1	-2	0
Roschon JohnsonRB	1%	0	0	0	2	17	0

CAR

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Bryce YoungQB	97%	0	0	0	54	216	2
Tetairoa McMillanWR	87%	122	70	1014	0	0	7
Rico DowdleRB	56%	50	39	297	236	1076	7
Xavier LegetteWR	68%	64	35	363	1	0	3
Tommy TrembleTE	60%	37	27	249	0	0	2
Chuba HubbardRB	46%	39	30	223	134	511	4
Jalen CokerWR	69%	43	33	394	0	0	3
Ja'Tavion SandersTE	52%	34	29	190	0	0	1
Mitchell EvansTE	40%	25	19	171	1	1	2
Brycen TremayneWR	25%	18	14	160	0	0	0
Hunter RenfrowWR	49%	26	15	89	0	0	2
Jimmy Horn Jr.WR	21%	15	11	108	8	69	0
Andy DaltonQB	38%	0	0	0	5	-2	0
Trevor EtienneRB	6%	3	3	13	20	94	0
David MooreWR	39%	1	1	5	1	12	0
James MitchellTE	22%	3	3	28	0	0	0
DeeJay DallasRB	12%	0	0	0	1	0	0

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Practice
CAR	Bobby Brown III	DT	Limited Participation in Practice
CAR	Patrick Jones II	LB	Did Not Participate In Practice
CAR	Jonathon Brooks	RB	Limited Participation in Practice
CHI	Tyson Bagent	QB	Did Not Participate In Practice
CHI	Rome Odunze	WR	Limited Participation in Practice
CHI	Ozzy Trapilo	T	Limited Participation in Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

CHI

CGarrett Bradbury#1
FSCam Lewis#1
HTory Taylor#1
KRZavion Thomas#1
LCBJaylon Johnson#1
LDEMontez Sweat#1
LDTGrady Jarrett#1
LGJoe Thuney#1
LSBeau Gardner#1
LTBraxton Jones#1
MLBT.J. Edwards#1
NBKyler Gordon#1
PTory Taylor#1
PKCairo Santos#1
PRKalif Raymond#1
QBCaleb Williams#1
RBD'Andre Swift#1
RCBTyrique Stevenson#1
RDEDayo Odeyingbo#1
RDTGervon Dexter Sr.#1
RGJonah Jackson#1
RTDarnell Wright#1
SLBD'Marco Jackson#1
SSDillon Thieneman#1

CAR

CLuke Fortner#1
FSNick Scott#1
HSam Martin#1
KRTrevor Etienne#1
LCBMike Jackson#1
LDEDerrick Brown#1
LGDamien Lewis#1
LILBDevin Lloyd#1
LSJJ Jansen#1
LTIkem Ekwonu#1
NBChau Smith-Wade#1
NTBobby Brown III#1
PSam Martin#1
PKRyan Fitzgerald#1
PRTrevor Etienne#1
QBBryce Young#1
RBChuba Hubbard#1
RCBJaycee Horn#1
RDETershawn Wharton#1
RGRobert Hunt#1
RILBTrevin Wallace#1
RTTaylor Moton#1
SLBJaelan Phillips#1
SSTre'von Moehrig#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

CHI

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-18	vs LA	L	17–20	5.15	-0.036	3
2026-01-11	vs GB	W	31–27	5.73	0.105	2
2026-01-04	vs DET	L	16–19	5.07	-0.019	1
2025-12-29	@ SF	L	38–42	6.98	0.363	0
2025-12-21	vs GB	W	22–16	6.67	0.101	0
2025-12-14	vs CLE	W	31–3	5.75	0.052	0
2025-12-07	@ GB	L	21–28	4.59	0.108	1
2025-11-28	@ PHI	W	24–15	5.07	0.042	1
2025-11-23	vs PIT	W	31–28	5.58	0.014	2
2025-11-16	@ MIN	W	19–17	4.38	-0.048	0

CAR

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-10	vs LA	L	31–34	5.30	-0.074	1
2026-01-03	@ TB	L	14–16	6.09	-0.021	2
2025-12-28	vs SEA	L	10–27	2.90	-0.511	2
2025-12-21	vs TB	W	23–20	5.21	0.101	0
2025-12-14	@ NO	L	17–20	5.02	0.110	1
2025-11-30	vs LA	W	31–28	6.14	0.238	0
2025-11-25	@ SF	L	9–20	5.23	-0.201	2
2025-11-16	@ ATL	W	30–27	6.43	0.127	0
2025-11-09	vs NO	L	7–17	3.50	-0.419	2
2025-11-02	@ GB	W	16–13	4.91	0.095	1

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

CHI 1-2 (3) · CAR 0-3 (3)

21.3Points For / Game18.3

22.0Points Against / Game25.7

-0.7Average Margin-7.3

5.34Yards / Play4.79

5.48Yards / Play Allowed5.15

+0.02EPA / Play-0.19

+0.13EPA / Play Allowed+0.02

43.2%Success Rate40.9%

45.0%Success Rate Allowed45.0%

8.9%Explosive Rate4.4%

9.2%Explosive Rate Allowed5.0%

46.9%3rd Down %23.3%

63.6%Red Zone TD %77.8%

2.00Turnovers / Game1.67

Last 5

CHI 2-3 (5) · CAR 1-4 (5)

24.8Points For / Game19.0

24.8Points Against / Game23.4

0.0Average Margin-4.4

5.89Yards / Play4.92

5.87Yards / Play Allowed5.19

+0.10EPA / Play-0.07

+0.15EPA / Play Allowed+0.06

44.9%Success Rate40.7%

47.2%Success Rate Allowed45.8%

10.4%Explosive Rate6.7%

10.7%Explosive Rate Allowed4.3%

43.1%3rd Down %35.7%

63.2%Red Zone TD %78.6%

1.20Turnovers / Game1.20

Last 10

CHI 6-4 (10) · CAR 4-6 (10)

25.0Points For / Game18.8

21.5Points Against / Game22.2

+3.5Average Margin-3.4

5.46Yards / Play5.15

5.57Yards / Play Allowed5.60

+0.07EPA / Play-0.04

+0.04EPA / Play Allowed+0.07

45.3%Success Rate41.2%

45.4%Success Rate Allowed47.4%

8.9%Explosive Rate7.4%

9.5%Explosive Rate Allowed7.3%

45.6%3rd Down %36.3%

66.7%Red Zone TD %63.6%

1.00Turnovers / Game1.10

2025 Season

CHI 12-7 (19) · CAR 8-10 (18)

25.7Points For / Game19.0

24.3Points Against / Game23.0

+1.4Average Margin-4.0

5.70Yards / Play5.08

5.93Yards / Play Allowed5.61

+0.07EPA / Play-0.04

+0.03EPA / Play Allowed+0.07

45.4%Success Rate43.1%

45.9%Success Rate Allowed44.6%

10.2%Explosive Rate7.9%

10.8%Explosive Rate Allowed8.0%

43.6%3rd Down %36.7%

64.6%Red Zone TD %61.7%

0.79Turnovers / Game1.22

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2017–2024

Head to head

4 meeting(s) · CAR 0 – CHI 4 · avg total 33.5 · avg margin -12.5

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2024-10-06	CAR @ CHI	10–36	46
2023-11-10	CAR @ CHI	13–16	29
2020-10-18	CHI @ CAR	23–16	39
2017-10-22	CAR @ CHI	3–17	20

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	CHI	CAR	Margin edge
JAX	1-0 19	0-1 -16	35.0
WAS	1-1 -1	0-1 -33	32.0
NO	1-0 12	1-3 -12	24.3
DAL	1-0 17	1-1 -7	23.5
ARI	0-1 -20	1-1 1	-20.5
PHI	1-0 9	0-1 -6	15.0
CIN	1-0 5	0-1 -10	15.0
SEA	0-1 -3	0-1 -17	14.0
LV	1-0 1	1-0 14	-13.0
NE	0-1 -16	0-1 -29	13.0
SF	0-2 -15	0-1 -11	-3.5
GB	3-2 1	1-0 3	-2.2
LA	1-1 2	1-1 0	1.5
NYG	1-0 4	1-0 3	1.0

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

BUF @ CAR (2025)40-968%
CHI @ WAS (2025)25-2467%
TB @ CAR (2025)20-2365%
CHI @ BAL (2025)16-3060%

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	CHI spread	CAR spread	Total	Over	Under	CHI ML	CAR ML
betmgm	-3 -115	+3 -102	47	-108	-110	-165	+140
betonlineag	-3 -110	+3 -110	47	-110	-110	-165	+145
betrivers	-3 -114	+3 -107	47	-110	-110	-175	+140
betus	-3 -115	+3 -105	47	-110	-110	-170	+146
bovada	-3 -110	+3 -110	47	-110	-110	-170	+145
draftkings	-3 -118	+3 -102	46.5	-115	-105	-162	+136
fanatics	-3 -110	+3 -110	47	-110	-110	-170	+140
fanduel	-3 -106	+3 -114	47.5	-102	-120	-164	+138
lowvig	-3 -105	+3 -105	47	-107	-107	-165	+145
mybookieag	-3 -110	+3 -110	47	-110	-110	-170	+138
williamhill_us	-3 -114	+3 -106	46.5	-118	-103	-170	+142

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	CAR ML	betus	+146	55.0%	39.6%	15.3%	0.353
2	CAR +3	betmgm	-102	59.9%	50.0%	9.9%	0.232
3	UNDER 47	lowvig	-107	67.2%	50.0%	17.2%	0.329
4	UNDER 46.5	williamhill_us	-103	67.2%	48.7%	18.5%	0.324
5	UNDER 47.5	—	-120	70.2%	51.9%	18.2%	0.286
6	CHI -3	lowvig	-105	35.6%	50.0%	-14.4%	-0.260
7	OVER 47	lowvig	-107	29.8%	50.0%	-20.2%	-0.393
8	CHI ML	draftkings	-162	45.0%	60.4%	-15.4%	-0.272
9	OVER 46.5	draftkings	-115	32.8%	51.3%	-18.5%	-0.386
10	OVER 47.5	—	-102	29.8%	48.1%	-18.2%	-0.409

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

586 mi

Timezone shift

+2 h

CHI rest

237.72916666666666 days

CAR rest

245.8125 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

grass

Roof

outdoors

Indoor

Weather

No pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

No Bet — Football evidence still developing

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

CAR ML +146

Bookbetus

Model prob55.0%

Fair prob39.6%

Edge15.3%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

CAR spread+3 -107

Total47 o-110

MoneylineCHI -170 / CAR +140

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffFri, Sep 11, 2026 • 10:04 AM ET

Candidates10

Game info

KickoffSun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ET

VenueBank of America Stadium

Roofoutdoors

Surfacegrass

NeutralNo

WeatherNo pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

RestCHI 237.72916666666666 / CAR 245.8125 days

Travel586 mi