NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_BUF

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Sun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ETReliant Stadium

Buffalo

Bills

13-6 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

25–22

Bills by 3

Expected total 47

Houston

Texans

13-6 · 2025 Season

BUF

58%

Model win probability

HOU

42%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects BUF 24.9 – HOU 22.4 with a home win probability of 42.3%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 42.3% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 24.9 – 22.4.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 5 completed meeting(s), HOU 4 – BUF 1, average total 39.8.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): BUF 24-7 vs HOU 17-12.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

BUF Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

HOU Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

BUF favoured

Home win probability 42.3% (price-blind).
Expected score 24.9 – 22.4.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

BUFMetricHOU

28.3#3

Points / Game

23.7#13

0.45#5

Points / Play

0.37#16

+6.1#6

Average Score Margin

+6.4#5

22.2#12

Opp Points / Game

17.3#2

0.39#20

Opp Points / Play

0.30#3

Efficiency

BUFMetricHOU

379.9#3

Yards / Game

327.3#18

6.00#5

Yards / Play

5.11#25

+0.14#2

EPA / Play

-0.03#24

48.6%#2

Success Rate

41.2%#28

10.9%#2

Explosive Play Rate

7.3%#26

300.2#8

Opp Yards / Game

270.9#1

5.33#16

Opp Yards / Play

4.68#2

-0.01#13

Opp EPA / Play

-0.16#1

42.9%#13

Opp Success Rate

37.5%#2

10.0%#26

Opp Explosive Play Rate

6.9%#3

Downs

BUFMetricHOU

47.9%#3

3rd Down %

39.7%#17

62.9%#9

4th Down %

57.1%#16

43.4%#25

Opp 3rd Down %

34.9%#3

Red Zone

BUFMetricHOU

72.5%#3

Red Zone TD %

50.0%#31

67.1%#23

Opp Red Zone TD %

62.7%#17

Turnovers

BUFMetricHOU

1.21#19

Turnovers / Game

1.00#12

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

Josh Allen

BUF

C.J. Stroud

HOU

16Games14

460Attempts423

69%Completion %65%

229.3Pass yds / game217.2

7.97Yards / attempt7.19

25Pass TD19

10Interceptions8

8%Sack rate5%

0.120EPA / dropback0.086

47%Success rate45%

2.89CPOE0.21

-0.518EPA under pressure-0.433

0.334EPA clean pocket0.295

—EPA play action—

0.131EPA vs blitz0.093

BUF QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: 0.16Confidence: 80%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Weaknesses: RED_ZONE_PROFILE

HOU QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.43Confidence: 67%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: SACK_AVOIDANCE

Weaknesses: TURNOVER_AVOIDANCE, ACCURACY

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

BUF

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

HOU

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

BUF

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

HOU

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

BUF

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

HOU

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

BUF

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Josh AllenQB	98%	0	0	0	112	579	14
James CookRB	57%	40	33	291	309	1621	14
Khalil ShakirWR	60%	95	72	719	1	5	4
Dawson KnoxTE	59%	49	36	417	0	0	4
Keon ColemanWR	66%	59	38	404	0	0	4
Josh PalmerWR	48%	37	22	303	0	0	0
Ty JohnsonRB	30%	33	24	263	50	200	5
Jackson HawesTE	46%	19	16	187	0	0	3
Dalton KincaidTE	37%	49	39	571	0	0	5
Tyrell ShaversWR	42%	23	15	245	0	0	1
Ray DavisRB	14%	13	10	86	58	275	2
Elijah MooreWR	31%	17	9	112	6	24	1
Curtis SamuelWR	40%	9	7	81	0	0	1
Reggie GilliamRB	20%	2	2	24	2	4	0
Mitchell TrubiskyQB	33%	0	0	0	9	6	0
Brandin CooksWR	33%	11	5	114	0	0	0
Keleki LatuTE	33%	4	4	35	0	0	0
Gabe DavisWR	0%	18	12	129	0	0	1

HOU

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
C.J. StroudQB	91%	0	0	0	48	209	1
Dalton SchultzTE	71%	106	82	777	0	0	3
Nico CollinsWR	77%	120	71	1117	2	15	7
Woody MarksRB	52%	36	24	208	196	703	5
Jayden HigginsWR	57%	68	41	525	0	0	6
Xavier HutchinsonWR	58%	57	35	428	3	22	3
Nick ChubbRB	32%	20	13	67	122	506	3
Davis MillsQB	71%	0	0	0	13	60	1
Christian KirkWR	51%	52	28	239	0	0	1
Jaylin NoelWR	26%	35	26	292	6	12	2
Cade StoverTE	49%	16	12	76	4	3	0
Dare OgunbowaleRB	13%	13	10	76	11	25	1
Jawhar JordanRB	30%	7	7	34	43	193	0
Harrison BryantTE	29%	6	2	7	0	0	0
British BrooksRB	10%	0	0	0	17	78	0
Justin WatsonWR	39%	4	3	30	0	0	0
Braxton BerriosWR	19%	8	6	37	0	0	0
Jared WayneWR	44%	2	2	20	0	0	0

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Practice
BUF	Ty Johnson	RB	Did Not Participate In Practice
BUF	Jordan Hancock	CB	Did Not Participate In Practice
BUF	T.J. Sanders	DE	Limited Participation in Practice
HOU	Trent Brown	T	Full Participation in Practice
HOU	Kayden McDonald	DT	Limited Participation in Practice
HOU	Wade Woodaz	LB	Full Participation in Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

BUF

CConnor McGovern#1
FBBen VanSumeren#1
FSGeno Stone#1
HMitch Wishnowsky#1
KRRay Davis#1
LCBChristian Benford#1
LDET.J. Sanders#1
LGAlec Anderson#1
LILBDorian Williams#1
LSReid Ferguson#1
LTDion Dawkins#1
NBC.J. Gardner-Johnson#1
NTDeone Walker#1
PMitch Wishnowsky#1
PKTyler Bass#1
PRKhalil Shakir#1
QBJosh Allen#1
RBJames Cook III#1
RCBMaxwell Hairston#1
RDEEd Oliver#1
RGO'Cyrus Torrence#1
RILBTerrel Bernard#1
RTSpencer Brown#1
SLBBradley Chubb#1

HOU

CKeylan Rutledge#1
FSCalen Bullock#1
HKai Kroeger#1
KRJaylin Noel#1
LCBDerek Stingley Jr.#1
LDEWill Anderson Jr.#1
LDTTommy Togiai#1
LGWyatt Teller#1
LSAustin Brinkman#1
LTAireontae Ersery#1
MLBAzeez Al-Shaair#1
NBJalen Pitre#1
PKai Kroeger#1
PKKa'imi Fairbairn#1
PRJaylin Noel#1
QBC.J. Stroud#1
RBDavid Montgomery#1
RCBKamari Lassiter#1
RDEDanielle Hunter#1
RDTSheldon Rankins#1
RGEd Ingram#1
RTBraden Smith#1
SLBE.J. Speed#1
SSReed Blankenship#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

BUF

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-17	@ DEN	L	30–33	5.76	0.084	5
2026-01-11	@ JAX	W	27–24	5.70	0.244	0
2026-01-04	vs NYJ	W	35–8	6.80	0.355	0
2025-12-28	vs PHI	L	12–13	4.55	-0.121	1
2025-12-21	@ CLE	W	23–20	5.44	0.061	0
2025-12-14	@ NE	W	35–31	5.50	0.261	0
2025-12-07	vs CIN	W	39–34	7.26	0.255	1
2025-11-30	@ PIT	W	26–7	5.03	0.100	2
2025-11-21	@ HOU	L	19–23	5.03	-0.164	3
2025-11-16	vs TB	W	44–32	7.67	0.243	2

HOU

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-18	@ NE	L	16–28	3.35	-0.407	5
2026-01-13	@ PIT	W	30–6	6.18	0.088	3
2026-01-04	vs IND	W	38–30	5.38	-0.019	0
2025-12-27	@ LAC	W	20–16	6.17	-0.151	2
2025-12-21	vs LV	W	23–21	4.61	-0.159	0
2025-12-14	vs ARI	W	40–20	6.65	0.248	0
2025-12-08	@ KC	W	20–10	4.12	-0.075	0
2025-11-30	@ IND	W	20–16	5.13	0.011	1
2025-11-21	vs BUF	W	23–19	4.76	-0.064	0
2025-11-16	@ TEN	W	16–13	4.63	-0.066	0

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

BUF 2-1 (3) · HOU 2-1 (3)

30.7Points For / Game28.0

21.7Points Against / Game21.3

+9.0Average Margin+6.7

6.09Yards / Play4.92

5.01Yards / Play Allowed4.28

+0.22EPA / Play-0.12

-0.05EPA / Play Allowed-0.29

53.4%Success Rate41.8%

43.1%Success Rate Allowed33.0%

11.5%Explosive Rate6.0%

8.4%Explosive Rate Allowed7.1%

58.5%3rd Down %46.7%

78.6%Red Zone TD %50.0%

1.67Turnovers / Game2.67

Last 5

BUF 3-2 (5) · HOU 4-1 (5)

25.4Points For / Game25.4

19.6Points Against / Game20.2

+5.8Average Margin+5.2

5.65Yards / Play5.09

4.65Yards / Play Allowed4.66

+0.12EPA / Play-0.13

-0.07EPA / Play Allowed-0.23

50.2%Success Rate40.4%

41.5%Success Rate Allowed33.7%

10.6%Explosive Rate7.2%

7.7%Explosive Rate Allowed6.5%

50.0%3rd Down %43.7%

76.2%Red Zone TD %53.3%

1.20Turnovers / Game2.00

Last 10

BUF 7-3 (10) · HOU 9-1 (10)

29.0Points For / Game24.6

22.5Points Against / Game17.9

+6.5Average Margin+6.7

5.82Yards / Play5.07

5.08Yards / Play Allowed4.69

+0.13EPA / Play-0.06

-0.04EPA / Play Allowed-0.18

48.3%Success Rate40.8%

43.1%Success Rate Allowed36.4%

10.7%Explosive Rate7.1%

8.2%Explosive Rate Allowed6.7%

50.0%3rd Down %41.7%

71.4%Red Zone TD %50.0%

1.40Turnovers / Game1.10

2025 Season

BUF 13-6 (19) · HOU 13-6 (19)

28.3Points For / Game23.7

22.2Points Against / Game17.3

+6.1Average Margin+6.4

6.00Yards / Play5.11

5.33Yards / Play Allowed4.68

+0.14EPA / Play-0.03

-0.01EPA / Play Allowed-0.16

48.6%Success Rate41.2%

42.9%Success Rate Allowed37.5%

10.9%Explosive Rate7.3%

10.0%Explosive Rate Allowed6.9%

47.9%3rd Down %39.7%

72.5%Red Zone TD %50.0%

1.21Turnovers / Game1.00

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2018–2025

Head to head

5 meeting(s) · HOU 4 – BUF 1 · avg total 39.8 · avg margin -4.6

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2025-11-21	BUF @ HOU	19–23	42
2024-10-06	BUF @ HOU	20–23	43
2021-10-03	HOU @ BUF	0–40	40
2020-01-04	BUF @ HOU	19–22	41
2018-10-14	BUF @ HOU	13–20	33

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	BUF	HOU	Margin edge
SEA	1-0 21	0-1 -8	29.0
NYJ	4-0 19	0-1 -8	27.0
JAX	2-0 20	3-1 2	18.3
TEN	1-0 24	3-1 8	15.8
SF	1-0 25	1-0 11	14.0
ARI	1-0 6	1-0 20	-14.0
DEN	1-1 11	0-1 -3	13.5
TB	1-0 12	0-1 -1	13.0
BAL	2-1 -7	1-1 3	-9.8
DET	1-0 6	0-1 -3	9.0
KC	2-1 4	1-2 -2	6.7
IND	1-0 10	4-0 4	5.8
PIT	1-0 19	1-0 24	-5.0
NE	2-2 -1	1-1 4	-4.8
MIA	3-1 4	1-0 8	-3.8
LA	0-1 -2	0-1 -5	3.0

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

BUF @ DEN (2025)30-3369%
IND @ HOU (2025)30-3868%
SF @ HOU (2025)15-2664%
JAX @ HOU (2025)29-3663%
BUF @ JAX (2025)27-2463%

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	BUF spread	HOU spread	Total	Over	Under	BUF ML	HOU ML
betmgm	-1.5 -110	+1.5 -108	44.5	-110	-108	-120	+100
betonlineag	-1 -120	+1 +100	45	-110	-110	-125	+105
betrivers	-1.5 -110	+1.5 -110	45	-109	-112	-124	+102
betus	-1 -115	+1 -105	45	-110	-110	-125	+105
bovada	-1.5 -110	+1.5 -110	45	-105	-115	-125	+105
draftkings	-1.5 -108	+1.5 -112	44.5	-115	-105	-122	+102
fanatics	-1.5 -110	+1.5 -110	45	-110	-110	-125	+105
fanduel	-1.5 -106	+1.5 -114	44.5	-118	-104	-118	+100
lowvig	-1 -112	+1 +101	45	-107	-107	-125	+105
mybookieag	-1 -110	+1 -110	45	-110	-110	-122	+100
williamhill_us	-1.5 -107	+1.5 -112	44.5	-117	-104	-120	+101

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	BUF -1.5	fanduel	-106	54.9%	50.0%	4.9%	0.068
2	OVER 45	bovada	-105	53.8%	50.0%	3.8%	0.075
3	OVER 44.5	betmgm	-110	56.3%	51.1%	5.2%	0.075
4	BUF ML	—	-124	57.7%	52.8%	4.9%	0.042
5	BUF -1	mybookieag	-110	54.9%	51.1%	3.9%	0.076
6	UNDER 45	lowvig	-107	43.7%	50.0%	-6.3%	-0.129
7	HOU +1.5	betmgm	-108	45.1%	50.0%	-4.9%	-0.132
8	HOU ML	betonlineag	+105	42.3%	47.2%	-4.9%	-0.132
9	HOU +1	lowvig	+101	42.3%	48.9%	-6.6%	-0.122
10	UNDER 44.5	fanduel	-104	43.7%	48.9%	-5.2%	-0.143

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

—

Timezone shift

—

BUF rest

238.8125 days

HOU rest

237.875 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

astroturf

Roof

—

Indoor

—

Weather

No pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

No Bet — Football evidence still developing

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

BUF -1.5 -106

Bookfanduel

Model prob54.9%

Fair prob50.0%

Edge4.9%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

HOU spread+1.5 -110

Total45 o-110

MoneylineBUF -124 / HOU +102

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffFri, Sep 11, 2026 • 10:06 AM ET

Candidates10

Game info

KickoffSun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ET

VenueReliant Stadium

Roof—

Surfaceastroturf

NeutralNo

WeatherNo pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

RestBUF 238.8125 / HOU 237.875 days

Travel—