NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_BAL

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Sun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ETLucas Oil Stadium

Baltimore

Ravens

8-9 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

25–25

Pick 'em

Expected total 50

Indianapolis

Colts

8-9 · 2025 Season

BAL

51%

Model win probability

IND

49%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects BAL 25.0 – IND 24.6 with a home win probability of 48.7%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 48.7% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 25.0 – 24.6.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 4 completed meeting(s), IND 1 – BAL 3, average total 42.5.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): BAL 12-12 vs IND 9-13.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

BAL Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

IND Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

BAL favoured

Home win probability 48.7% (price-blind).
Expected score 25.0 – 24.6.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

BALMetricIND

24.9#10

Points / Game

27.4#7

0.44#6

Points / Play

0.46#3

+1.5#13

Average Score Margin

+3.2#9

23.4#18

Opp Points / Game

24.2#21

0.37#13

Opp Points / Play

0.37#15

Efficiency

BALMetricIND

333.4#15

Yards / Game

346.8#9

5.93#6

Yards / Play

5.83#8

+0.03#12

EPA / Play

+0.07#8

44.6%#14

Success Rate

46.3%#6

10.7%#4

Explosive Play Rate

8.4%#18

355.8#24

Opp Yards / Game

350.7#23

5.62#22

Opp Yards / Play

5.42#17

+0.02#19

Opp EPA / Play

+0.00#16

44.1%#16

Opp Success Rate

45.5%#23

9.7%#22

Opp Explosive Play Rate

8.5%#18

Downs

BALMetricIND

41.3%#14

3rd Down %

43.0%#7

60.0%#12

4th Down %

66.7%#4

38.2%#10

Opp 3rd Down %

43.1%#24

Red Zone

BALMetricIND

59.7%#22

Red Zone TD %

68.4%#7

53.9%#4

Opp Red Zone TD %

54.8%#5

Turnovers

BALMetricIND

1.29#24

Turnovers / Game

1.18#18

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

Lamar Jackson

BAL

Daniel Jones

IND

13Games13

302Attempts384

64%Completion %68%

196.1Pass yds / game238.5

8.44Yards / attempt8.08

21Pass TD19

7Interceptions8

11%Sack rate5%

0.019EPA / dropback0.140

45%Success rate50%

2.91CPOE2.60

-0.671EPA under pressure-0.252

0.345EPA clean pocket0.290

—EPA play action—

0.113EPA vs blitz0.044

BAL QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.47Confidence: 63%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: DEEP_PASS_PROFILE, EXPLOSIVE_PASSING

Weaknesses: RED_ZONE_PROFILE, SACK_AVOIDANCE, THIRD_DOWN_PROFILE, DECISION_EFFICIENCY

IND QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: 0.22Confidence: 60%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: RED_ZONE_PROFILE

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

BAL

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

IND

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

BAL

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

IND

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

BAL

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

IND

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

BAL

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Lamar JacksonQB	92%	0	0	0	67	349	2
Zay FlowersWR	86%	118	86	1211	10	62	6
Derrick HenryRB	55%	21	15	150	307	1595	16
Mark AndrewsTE	62%	70	48	422	10	48	6
Rashod BatemanWR	69%	38	19	224	0	0	2
Isaiah LikelyTE	57%	36	27	307	0	0	1
DeAndre HopkinsWR	33%	39	22	330	0	0	2
Charlie KolarTE	40%	15	10	142	0	0	2
Tyler HuntleyQB	59%	0	0	0	24	151	0
Justice HillRB	37%	27	21	169	18	93	3
Keaton MitchellRB	17%	12	9	63	59	341	1
Tylan WallaceWR	28%	8	4	45	0	0	1
Cooper RushQB	51%	0	0	0	4	-4	0
Patrick RicardRB	46%	2	1	8	1	3	0
Rasheen AliRB	13%	11	9	68	7	24	1
Devontez WalkerWR	24%	8	6	136	0	0	3
LaJohntay WesterWR	7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE	27%	2	1	3	0	0	0

IND

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Jonathan TaylorRB	83%	55	46	378	323	1585	20
Daniel JonesQB	91%	0	0	0	45	164	5
Michael PittmanWR	86%	111	80	784	0	0	7
Tyler WarrenTE	84%	112	76	817	6	8	5
Alec PierceWR	86%	84	47	1003	0	0	6
Josh DownsWR	59%	88	58	566	2	-2	4
Mo Alie-CoxTE	40%	20	13	117	0	0	1
Philip RiversQB	97%	0	0	0	2	-1	0
Riley LeonardQB	39%	0	0	-3	6	27	2
Ashton DulinWR	21%	10	5	106	3	44	0
Andrew OgletreeTE	21%	6	4	27	0	0	1
Adonai MitchellWR	25%	16	9	152	0	0	0
Ameer AbdullahRB	11%	17	16	99	14	60	1
DJ GiddensRB	18%	2	0	0	26	96	0
Anthony GouldWR	9%	2	2	6	0	0	0
Tyler GoodsonRB	5%	3	2	8	9	24	0
Laquon TreadwellWR	6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony RichardsonQB	12%	1	1	9	4	-1	0

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Practice
BAL	Nnamdi Madubuike	DT	Limited Participation in Practice
BAL	Zay Flowers	WR	Limited Participation in Practice
BAL	Devontez Walker	WR	Limited Participation in Practice
BAL	Teddye Buchanan	LB	Limited Participation in Practice
IND	Andrew Ogletree	TE	Limited Participation in Practice
IND	Alec Pierce	WR	Limited Participation in Practice
IND	Sedrick Van Pran-Granger	C	Limited Participation in Practice
IND	A.J. Haulcy	S	Limited Participation in Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

BAL

CEthan Pocic#1
FBLucas Scott#1
FSMalaki Starks#1
HRyan Eckley#1
KRRasheen Ali#1
LCBNate Wiggins#1
LDENnamdi Madubuike#1
LGJohn Simpson#1
LILBRoquan Smith#1
LSNick Moore#1
LTRonnie Stanley#1
NBKyle Hamilton#1
NTTravis Jones#1
PRyan Eckley#1
PKTyler Loop#1
PRLaJohntay Wester#1
QBLamar Jackson#1
RBDerrick Henry#1
RCBMarlon Humphrey#1
RDECalais Campbell#1
RGOlaivavega Ioane#1
RILBTeddye Buchanan#1
RTRoger Rosengarten#1
SLBTrey Hendrickson#1

IND

CTanor Bortolini#1
FSCam Bynum#1
HRigoberto Sanchez#1
KRAnthony Gould#1
LCBSauce Gardner#1
LDEArden Key#1
LDTGrover Stewart#1
LGQuenton Nelson#1
LSLuke Rhodes#1
LTBernhard Raimann#1
MLBCJ Allen#1
NBJustin Walley#1
PRigoberto Sanchez#1
PKBlake Grupe#1
PRAnthony Gould#1
QBDaniel Jones#1
RBJonathan Taylor#1
RCBCharvarius Ward#1
RDELaiatu Latu#1
RDTDeForest Buckner#1
RGMatt Goncalves#1
RTJalen Travis#1
SLBBryce Boettcher#1
SSA.J. Haulcy#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

BAL

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-05	@ PIT	L	24–26	7.68	0.139	1
2025-12-28	@ GB	W	41–24	5.68	0.367	0
2025-12-22	vs NE	L	24–28	6.25	0.105	2
2025-12-14	@ CIN	W	24–0	8.65	0.207	1
2025-12-07	vs PIT	L	22–27	5.60	0.013	1
2025-11-28	vs CIN	L	14–32	6.20	-0.340	5
2025-11-23	vs NYJ	W	23–10	4.34	-0.050	0
2025-11-16	@ CLE	W	23–16	6.09	-0.088	2
2025-11-09	@ MIN	W	27–19	4.91	-0.004	0
2025-10-31	@ MIA	W	28–6	6.30	0.212	0

IND

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	@ HOU	L	30–38	5.53	-0.073	2
2025-12-28	vs JAX	L	17–23	3.80	-0.206	2
2025-12-23	vs SF	L	27–48	5.38	-0.037	1
2025-12-14	@ SEA	L	16–18	3.79	-0.098	1
2025-12-07	@ JAX	L	19–36	4.54	-0.189	3
2025-11-30	vs HOU	L	16–20	5.51	-0.116	0
2025-11-23	@ KC	L	20–23	5.22	-0.004	0
2025-11-09	vs ATL	W	31–25	6.92	0.151	2
2025-11-02	@ PIT	L	20–27	5.04	-0.123	5
2025-10-26	vs TEN	W	38–14	8.08	0.382	0

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

BAL 1-2 (3) · IND 0-3 (3)

29.7Points For / Game24.7

26.0Points Against / Game36.3

+3.7Average Margin-11.7

6.40Yards / Play4.95

6.59Yards / Play Allowed5.94

+0.22EPA / Play-0.10

+0.13EPA / Play Allowed+0.13

49.1%Success Rate40.9%

49.5%Success Rate Allowed46.9%

9.8%Explosive Rate4.0%

13.0%Explosive Rate Allowed10.8%

55.3%3rd Down %47.2%

78.6%Red Zone TD %72.7%

1.00Turnovers / Game1.67

Last 5

BAL 2-3 (5) · IND 0-5 (5)

27.0Points For / Game21.8

21.0Points Against / Game32.6

+6.0Average Margin-10.8

6.48Yards / Play4.64

6.00Yards / Play Allowed5.86

+0.17EPA / Play-0.12

+0.05EPA / Play Allowed+0.09

47.4%Success Rate39.1%

45.6%Success Rate Allowed45.8%

11.2%Explosive Rate3.7%

10.5%Explosive Rate Allowed9.7%

48.4%3rd Down %46.7%

65.2%Red Zone TD %68.8%

1.00Turnovers / Game1.80

Last 10

BAL 6-4 (10) · IND 2-8 (10)

25.0Points For / Game23.4

18.8Points Against / Game27.2

+6.2Average Margin-3.8

6.01Yards / Play5.40

5.46Yards / Play Allowed5.37

+0.06EPA / Play-0.03

-0.06EPA / Play Allowed+0.02

44.9%Success Rate42.7%

40.9%Success Rate Allowed44.2%

10.3%Explosive Rate7.2%

9.9%Explosive Rate Allowed8.5%

41.5%3rd Down %39.8%

60.0%Red Zone TD %66.7%

1.20Turnovers / Game1.60

2025 Season

BAL 8-9 (17) · IND 8-9 (17)

24.9Points For / Game27.4

23.4Points Against / Game24.2

+1.5Average Margin+3.2

5.93Yards / Play5.83

5.62Yards / Play Allowed5.42

+0.03EPA / Play+0.07

+0.02EPA / Play Allowed+0.00

44.6%Success Rate46.3%

44.1%Success Rate Allowed45.5%

10.7%Explosive Rate8.4%

9.7%Explosive Rate Allowed8.5%

41.3%3rd Down %43.0%

59.7%Red Zone TD %68.4%

1.29Turnovers / Game1.18

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2017–2023

Head to head

4 meeting(s) · IND 1 – BAL 3 · avg total 42.5 · avg margin -6.0

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2023-09-24	IND @ BAL	22–19	41
2021-10-12	IND @ BAL	25–31	56
2020-11-08	BAL @ IND	24–10	34
2017-12-23	IND @ BAL	16–23	39

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	BAL	IND	Margin edge
DEN	1-0 31	1-1 -9	39.5
LV	0-1 -3	1-0 34	-37.0
NYG	1-0 21	0-1 -12	33.0
GB	1-0 17	0-1 -6	23.0
BUF	1-2 7	0-1 -10	17.3
MIN	1-0 8	0-1 -8	16.0
NYJ	1-0 13	1-0 1	12.0
DET	0-1 -8	0-1 -18	10.0
CHI	1-0 14	1-0 5	9.0
KC	0-2 -12	0-1 -3	-9.0
LA	0-1 -14	0-1 -7	-7.0
LAC	1-0 7	1-0 14	-7.0
MIA	1-0 22	2-0 16	6.5
PIT	2-3 4	1-1 -2	6.4
NE	0-1 -4	1-0 1	-5.0
HOU	1-1 -3	0-4 -4	1.8

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

BAL @ BUF (2025)40-4168%
BAL @ GB (2025)41-2468%
PIT @ DET (2025)29-2467%
MIA @ IND (2025)8-3365%
SF @ IND (2025)48-2765%
BAL @ PIT (2025)24-2664%
ATL @ IND (2025)25-3163%

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	BAL spread	IND spread	Total	Over	Under	BAL ML	IND ML
betmgm	-3.5 +100	+3.5 -120	47.5	-112	-108	-190	+155
betonlineag	-3 -120	+3 +100	48	-105	-115	-175	+153
betrivers	-3.5 -104	+3.5 -118	47.5	-110	-110	-175	+140
betus	-3 -120	+3 +100	48	-110	-110	-175	+150
bovada	-3 -120	+3 +100	48	-105	-115	-175	+150
draftkings	-3.5 -105	+3.5 -115	47.5	-115	-105	-175	+145
fanatics	-3.5 +100	+3.5 -120	48	-110	-110	-180	+150
fanduel	-3.5 -104	+3.5 -118	47.5	-115	-105	-184	+154
lowvig	-3.5 +106	+3.5 -117	48	-102	-113	-175	+153
mybookieag	-3.5 +100	+3.5 -120	48	-110	-110	-175	+142
williamhill_us	-3.5 -103	+3.5 -117	48	-110	-109	-179	+150

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	IND ML	betmgm	+155	48.7%	38.4%	10.3%	0.242
2	IND +3	betonlineag	+100	53.8%	47.8%	6.0%	0.118
3	IND +3.5	draftkings	-115	58.0%	51.8%	6.1%	0.084
4	OVER 48	lowvig	-102	52.1%	50.0%	2.1%	0.054
5	OVER 47.5	betrivers	-110	54.4%	50.8%	3.6%	0.038
6	UNDER 48	williamhill_us	-109	45.6%	50.0%	-4.4%	-0.102
7	BAL -3	betonlineag	-120	42.0%	52.2%	-10.1%	-0.188
8	BAL ML	betonlineag	-175	51.3%	61.6%	-10.3%	-0.194
9	BAL -3.5	lowvig	+106	42.0%	48.2%	-6.1%	-0.134
10	UNDER 47.5	fanduel	-105	45.6%	49.2%	-3.6%	-0.109

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

509 mi

Timezone shift

+1 h

BAL rest

251.6527777777778 days

IND rest

251.95833333333334 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

fieldturf

Roof

—

Indoor

—

Weather

No pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

No Bet — Football evidence still developing

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

IND ML +155

Bookbetmgm

Model prob48.7%

Fair prob38.4%

Edge10.3%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

IND spread+3 +100

Total48 o-110

MoneylineBAL -175 / IND +150

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffFri, Sep 11, 2026 • 10:02 AM ET

Candidates10

Game info

KickoffSun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ET

VenueLucas Oil Stadium

Roof—

Surfacefieldturf

NeutralNo

WeatherNo pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

RestBAL 251.6527777777778 / IND 251.95833333333334 days

Travel509 mi