NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_ATL

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Sun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ETAcrisure Stadium

Atlanta

Falcons

8-9 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

23–23

Steelers by 1

Expected total 46

Pittsburgh

Steelers

10-8 · 2025 Season

ATL

48%

Model win probability

PIT

52%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects ATL 22.8 – PIT 23.3 with a home win probability of 51.6%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 51.6% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 22.8 – 23.3.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 3 completed meeting(s), PIT 3 – ATL 0, average total 40.3.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): ATL 7-11 vs PIT 11-7.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

ATL Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

PIT Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

PIT favoured

Home win probability 51.6% (price-blind).
Expected score 22.8 – 23.3.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

ATLMetricPIT

20.8#23

Points / Game

22.4#17

0.34#24

Points / Play

0.39#13

-2.8#21

Average Score Margin

-0.8#18

23.6#19

Opp Points / Game

23.2#17

0.38#18

Opp Points / Play

0.36#12

Efficiency

ATLMetricPIT

334.2#13

Yards / Game

298.9#27

5.48#13

Yards / Play

5.21#21

-0.02#23

EPA / Play

-0.01#18

43.7%#16

Success Rate

43.1%#18

9.6%#10

Explosive Play Rate

8.5%#17

327.5#15

Opp Yards / Game

361.1#27

5.32#15

Opp Yards / Play

5.55#19

-0.00#15

Opp EPA / Play

+0.02#18

44.6%#18

Opp Success Rate

43.7%#15

8.3%#15

Opp Explosive Play Rate

8.5%#19

Downs

ATLMetricPIT

34.1%#30

3rd Down %

39.6%#18

50.0%#22

4th Down %

57.7%#15

40.1%#16

Opp 3rd Down %

44.0%#26

Red Zone

ATLMetricPIT

63.2%#15

Red Zone TD %

63.6%#14

61.5%#15

Opp Red Zone TD %

58.3%#8

Turnovers

ATLMetricPIT

0.94#8

Turnovers / Game

0.89#7

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

—

ATL

Aaron Rodgers

PIT

—Games16

—Attempts498

—Completion %66%

—Pass yds / game207.6

—Yards / attempt6.67

—Pass TD24

—Interceptions7

—Sack rate6%

—EPA / dropback0.027

—Success rate43%

—CPOE-0.40

—EPA under pressure-0.717

—EPA clean pocket0.227

—EPA play action—

—EPA vs blitz-0.179

ATL QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.31Confidence: 70%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: RED_ZONE_PROFILE

Weaknesses: TURNOVER_AVOIDANCE, DEEP_PASS_PROFILE, DECISION_EFFICIENCY

PIT QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.54Confidence: 73%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Strengths: TURNOVER_AVOIDANCE

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

ATL

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

PIT

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

ATL

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

PIT

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

ATL

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

PIT

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

ATL

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Bijan RobinsonRB	78%	103	79	820	287	1478	11
Kyle PittsTE	88%	118	88	928	0	0	5
Darnell MooneyWR	82%	72	32	443	0	0	1
Michael Penix Jr.QB	93%	0	0	0	21	70	1
Kirk CousinsQB	86%	0	0	0	14	7	1
Drake LondonWR	91%	112	68	919	0	0	7
David SillsWR	64%	36	18	191	0	0	2
Tyler AllgeierRB	30%	16	14	96	143	514	8
Charlie WoernerTE	56%	9	8	48	0	0	0
Casey WashingtonWR	50%	14	6	94	0	0	0
Ray-Ray McCloudWR	50%	14	6	64	0	0	0
Dylan DrummondWR	29%	11	7	42	0	0	0
KhaDarel HodgeWR	13%	10	3	31	0	0	0
Teagan QuitorianoTE	45%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Deven ThompkinsWR	5%	3	3	27	1	5	0
Feleipe FranksTE	2%	0	0	0	2	4	0
Nate CarterRB	0%	0	0	0	9	60	0
Jamal AgnewWR	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0

PIT

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Aaron RodgersQB	96%	1	1	-9	21	61	1
DK MetcalfWR	87%	99	59	850	2	12	7
Jaylen WarrenRB	51%	45	40	333	211	958	8
Jonnu SmithTE	53%	54	38	222	9	70	3
Pat FreiermuthTE	53%	54	41	486	0	0	4
Darnell WashingtonTE	61%	43	31	364	0	0	1
Calvin Austin IIIWR	54%	55	31	372	0	0	3
Roman WilsonWR	42%	21	12	166	0	0	2
Adam ThielenWR	60%	17	11	117	0	0	0
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR	58%	21	10	80	0	0	1
Kenny GainwellRB	0%	85	73	486	114	537	8
Mason RudolphQB	34%	0	0	0	7	6	0
Ben SkowronekWR	16%	6	4	69	0	0	1
Scott MillerWR	29%	14	9	62	0	0	0
Connor HeywardFB	10%	4	3	21	15	43	3
Kaleb JohnsonRB	9%	2	1	9	28	69	0
Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR	2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Trey SermonRB	1%	0	0	0	0	0	0

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Practice
ATL	Za'Darius Smith	DE	Limited Participation in Practice
ATL	Kyle Hinton	G	Limited Participation in Practice
ATL	Brandon Dorlus	DT	Limited Participation in Practice
ATL	Michael Penix Jr.	QB	Full Participation in Practice
ATL	Billy Bowman Jr.	CB	Limited Participation in Practice
ATL	Zachariah Branch	WR	Limited Participation in Practice
PIT	Joey Porter Jr.	CB	Limited Participation in Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

ATL

CRyan Neuzil#1
FSXavier Watts#1
HJake Bailey#1
KRZachariah Branch#1
LCBA.J. Terrell Jr.#1
LDEBrandon Dorlus#1
LGMatthew Bergeron#1
LILBDivine Deablo#1
LSLiam McCullough#1
LTJake Matthews#1
NBBilly Bowman Jr.#1
NTDa'Shawn Hand#1
PJake Bailey#1
PKNick Folk#1
PRZachariah Branch#1
QBTua Tagovailoa#1
RBBijan Robinson#1
RCBMike Hughes#1
RDEZach Harrison#1
RGChris Lindstrom#1
RILBChristian Harris#1
RTJawaan Taylor#1
SLBJames Pearce Jr.#1
SSJessie Bates III#1

PIT

CZach Frazier#1
FBRiley Nowakowski#1
FSJaquan Brisker#1
HCameron Johnston#1
KRKaden Wetjen#1
LCBJoey Porter Jr.#1
LDEDerrick Harmon#1
LGMason McCormick#1
LILBPayton Wilson#1
LSChristian Kuntz#1
LTTroy Fautanu#1
NBJalen Ramsey#1
NTYahya Black#1
PCameron Johnston#1
PKChris Boswell#1
PRKaden Wetjen#1
QBAaron Rodgers#1
RBJaylen Warren#1
RCBJamel Dean#1
RDECameron Heyward#1
RGSpencer Anderson#1
RILBPatrick Queen#1
RTDylan Cook#1
SLBAlex Highsmith#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

ATL

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	vs NO	W	19–17	3.62	-0.248	1
2025-12-30	vs LA	W	27–24	6.51	0.116	0
2025-12-21	@ ARI	W	26–19	4.90	0.053	2
2025-12-12	@ TB	W	29–28	7.10	0.217	1
2025-12-07	vs SEA	L	9–37	4.42	-0.356	3
2025-11-30	@ NYJ	L	24–27	5.81	0.174	0
2025-11-23	@ NO	W	24–10	5.65	-0.112	1
2025-11-16	vs CAR	L	27–30	6.00	0.127	0
2025-11-09	@ IND	L	25–31	4.88	-0.067	1
2025-11-02	@ NE	L	23–24	5.33	0.070	0

PIT

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-13	vs HOU	L	6–30	3.13	-0.544	2
2026-01-05	vs BAL	W	26–24	5.34	0.058	0
2025-12-28	@ CLE	L	6–13	4.62	-0.204	0
2025-12-21	@ DET	W	29–24	6.87	0.212	1
2025-12-16	vs MIA	W	28–15	5.42	0.223	0
2025-12-07	@ BAL	W	27–22	6.38	0.269	0
2025-11-30	vs BUF	L	7–26	3.86	-0.424	2
2025-11-23	@ CHI	L	28–31	5.00	0.001	2
2025-11-16	vs CIN	W	34–12	5.83	0.199	0
2025-11-10	@ LAC	L	10–25	4.42	-0.377	2

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

ATL 3-0 (3) · PIT 1-2 (3)

24.0Points For / Game12.7

20.0Points Against / Game22.3

+4.0Average Margin-9.7

4.96Yards / Play4.46

5.62Yards / Play Allowed6.37

-0.02EPA / Play-0.20

-0.08EPA / Play Allowed+0.01

39.0%Success Rate39.1%

39.0%Success Rate Allowed40.7%

7.7%Explosive Rate8.3%

9.3%Explosive Rate Allowed9.3%

39.0%3rd Down %34.1%

60.0%Red Zone TD %33.3%

1.00Turnovers / Game0.67

Last 5

ATL 4-1 (5) · PIT 3-2 (5)

22.0Points For / Game19.0

25.0Points Against / Game21.2

-3.0Average Margin-2.2

5.32Yards / Play5.16

5.72Yards / Play Allowed6.00

-0.04EPA / Play-0.03

-0.01EPA / Play Allowed+0.02

40.5%Success Rate42.3%

42.4%Success Rate Allowed41.4%

9.0%Explosive Rate9.3%

10.6%Explosive Rate Allowed9.6%

35.4%3rd Down %38.4%

55.6%Red Zone TD %52.6%

1.40Turnovers / Game0.60

Last 10

ATL 5-5 (10) · PIT 5-5 (10)

23.3Points For / Game20.1

24.7Points Against / Game22.2

-1.4Average Margin-2.1

5.42Yards / Play5.16

5.52Yards / Play Allowed5.51

+0.00EPA / Play-0.04

-0.00EPA / Play Allowed-0.01

43.7%Success Rate42.5%

43.9%Success Rate Allowed41.4%

10.1%Explosive Rate8.4%

8.8%Explosive Rate Allowed8.6%

29.9%3rd Down %40.3%

70.6%Red Zone TD %55.6%

0.90Turnovers / Game0.90

2025 Season

ATL 8-9 (17) · PIT 10-8 (18)

20.8Points For / Game22.4

23.6Points Against / Game23.2

-2.8Average Margin-0.8

5.48Yards / Play5.21

5.32Yards / Play Allowed5.55

-0.02EPA / Play-0.01

-0.00EPA / Play Allowed+0.02

43.7%Success Rate43.1%

44.6%Success Rate Allowed43.7%

9.6%Explosive Rate8.5%

8.3%Explosive Rate Allowed8.5%

34.1%3rd Down %39.6%

63.2%Red Zone TD %63.6%

0.94Turnovers / Game0.89

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2018–2024

Head to head

3 meeting(s) · PIT 3 – ATL 0 · avg total 40.3 · avg margin 11.7

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2024-09-08	PIT @ ATL	18–10	28
2022-12-04	PIT @ ATL	19–16	35
2018-10-07	ATL @ PIT	17–41	58

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	ATL	PIT	Margin edge
DEN	0-1 -32	1-0 7	-39.0
MIA	0-1 -24	1-0 13	-37.0
BUF	1-0 10	0-1 -19	29.0
NYG	1-0 27	1-0 8	19.0
NYJ	0-1 -3	2-0 12	-15.0
PHI	1-0 1	0-1 -14	15.0
KC	0-1 -5	0-1 -19	14.0
LV	1-0 6	1-0 19	-13.0
SEA	0-2 -24	0-1 -14	-10.0
DAL	1-0 6	0-1 -3	9.0
IND	0-1 -6	1-1 2	-8.0
NE	0-1 -1	1-0 7	-8.0
MIN	1-1 -3	1-0 3	-5.5
LAC	0-1 -4	1-1 -3	-1.5
WAS	1-1 1	1-0 1	-0.5

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

ATL @ CAR (2025)0-3072%
ATL @ TB (2025)29-2869%
ATL @ SF (2025)10-2064%
ATL @ IND (2025)25-3164%
TB @ ATL (2025)23-2064%
BAL @ PIT (2025)24-2663%
TB @ MIA (2025)17-2062%
MIA @ PIT (2025)15-2862%
TB @ CAR (2025)20-2362%
PIT @ BAL (2025)27-2261%

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	ATL spread	PIT spread	Total	Over	Under	ATL ML	PIT ML
betmgm	+4.5 -110	-4.5 -110	41.5	-108	-110	+190	-235
betonlineag	+4.5 -110	-4.5 -110	41.5	-113	-107	+192	-230
betrivers	+5 -112	-5 -109	41.5	-107	-114	+185	-235
betus	+4.5 -110	-4.5 -110	41.5	-110	-110	+195	-230
bovada	+4.5 -110	-4.5 -110	41.5	-115	-105	+185	-225
draftkings	+5.5 -115	-5.5 -105	41.5	-110	-110	+190	-230
fanatics	+4.5 -110	-4.5 -110	41.5	-110	-110	+190	-235
fanduel	+4.5 -105	-4.5 -115	41.5	-105	-115	+190	-230
lowvig	+4.5 -105	-4.5 -105	41.5	-110	-104	+192	-230
mybookieag	+5 -110	-5 -110	41.5	-110	-110	+189	-238
williamhill_us	+4.5 -109	-4.5 -110	41.5	-112	-108	+191	-235

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	ATL +4.5	fanduel	-105	60.9%	50.0%	10.9%	0.189
2	ATL ML	betus	+195	48.4%	33.0%	15.4%	0.428
3	OVER 41.5	fanduel	-105	62.0%	50.0%	12.0%	0.210
4	ATL +5.5	—	-115	63.1%	51.1%	12.0%	0.180
5	ATL +5	mybookieag	-110	60.9%	50.2%	10.7%	0.184
6	PIT -4.5	lowvig	-105	39.1%	50.0%	-10.9%	-0.236
7	UNDER 41.5	lowvig	-104	38.0%	50.0%	-12.0%	-0.255
8	PIT -5.5	—	-105	36.9%	48.9%	-12.0%	-0.280
9	PIT ML	bovada	-225	51.6%	67.0%	-15.5%	-0.255
10	PIT -5	betrivers	-109	36.9%	49.8%	-12.9%	-0.270

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

521 mi

Timezone shift

+1 h

ATL rest

251.95833333333334 days

PIT rest

243.66666666666666 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

grass

Roof

outdoors

Indoor

Weather

No pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

No Bet — Football evidence still developing

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

ATL +4.5 -105

Bookfanduel

Model prob60.9%

Fair prob50.0%

Edge10.9%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

PIT spread-4.5 -110

Total41.5 o-110

MoneylineATL +190 / PIT -230

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffFri, Sep 11, 2026 • 9:59 AM ET

Candidates10

Game info

KickoffSun, Sep 13, 2026 • 1:00 PM ET

VenueAcrisure Stadium

Roofoutdoors

Surfacegrass

NeutralNo

WeatherNo pregame forecast snapshot is available for this kickoff.

RestATL 251.95833333333334 / PIT 243.66666666666666 days

Travel521 mi