NFL Matchup Research — 2026_01_ARI

Back to Week 1

2026 · Week 1Sun, Sep 13, 2026 • 4:25 PM ETSoFi Stadium

Arizona

Cardinals

3-14 · 2025 Season

Model forecast

21–24

Chargers by 3

Expected total 45

Los Angeles

Chargers

11-7 · 2025 Season

ARI

41%

Model win probability

LAC

59%

The model's read

Narrative assembled strictly from persisted, price-blind receipts.

What the model actually says

Baseline C projects ARI 21.1 – LAC 24.2 with a home win probability of 59.3%.
Authority nfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0 produced this distribution price-blind; the Phase 10 simulation line remains formally not certified and is not used.

Where the structural edge sits

Game Script: Certainty: Low
Game Script: LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
Football Probability Authority: Home win probability 59.3% (price-blind).
Football Probability Authority: Expected score 21.1 – 24.2.

What the descriptive evidence supports

Statistical scope: 2025 Season — 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics..
Head to head: 3 completed meeting(s), LAC 2 – ARI 1, average total 45.3.
Common opponents (2024 & 2025): ARI 5-10 vs LAC 10-7.

Honest limitations

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Structural edges

Phase 3–9 authority units, exactly as persisted.

3/5 available

Phase 3

ARI Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 3

LAC Team Identity

Unavailable

A Phase 3 receipt exists but carries no populated identity axis (support state INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT).

Phase 8

Matchup Intelligence

Available

No finding published.

Phase 9

Game Script

Script unresolved

Certainty: Low
LOW_SCRIPT_CERTAINTY
SCRIPT_UNRESOLVED

Confidence 46%

Baseline C

Football Probability Authority

LAC favoured

Home win probability 59.3% (price-blind).
Expected score 21.1 – 24.2.
Phase 10 simulation V1 is formally NOT CERTIFIED; Baseline C remains the sole probability authority.

Team comparison

Descriptive evidence, completed games only — 2025 Season · 2026 regular-season evidence does not exist yet — showing 2025 full-season descriptive statistics.

Scoring

ARIMetricLAC

20.9#22

Points / Game

20.6#24

0.33#25

Points / Play

0.33#26

-7.8#29

Average Score Margin

+0.8#16

28.7#29

Opp Points / Game

19.8#8

0.46#28

Opp Points / Play

0.35#11

Efficiency

ARIMetricLAC

326.1#19

Yards / Game

327.7#17

5.16#23

Yards / Play

5.18#22

-0.02#22

EPA / Play

-0.04#25

43.0%#22

Success Rate

43.1%#20

6.9%#29

Explosive Play Rate

6.9%#27

360.3#26

Opp Yards / Game

291.5#6

5.82#25

Opp Yards / Play

5.16#12

+0.09#27

Opp EPA / Play

-0.08#8

48.5%#31

Opp Success Rate

41.5%#6

10.2%#27

Opp Explosive Play Rate

8.2%#14

Downs

ARIMetricLAC

42.4%#9

3rd Down %

44.6%#4

42.9%#30

4th Down %

56.5%#18

44.8%#29

Opp 3rd Down %

35.4%#4

Red Zone

ARIMetricLAC

55.9%#26

Red Zone TD %

50.7%#30

66.7%#21

Opp Red Zone TD %

50.8%#3

Turnovers

ARIMetricLAC

1.12#16

Turnovers / Game

1.11#14

Quarterback matchup

Production window: 2025 Season

Jacoby Brissett

ARI

Justin Herbert

LAC

14Games16

485Attempts512

65%Completion %66%

240.4Pass yds / game232.9

6.94Yards / attempt7.28

23Pass TD26

8Interceptions13

8%Sack rate10%

-0.011EPA / dropback0.008

45%Success rate45%

-3.60CPOE1.63

-0.525EPA under pressure-0.531

0.241EPA clean pocket0.318

—EPA play action—

-0.042EPA vs blitz0.103

ARI QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.35Confidence: 62%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Weaknesses: DEEP_PASS_PROFILE

LAC QB intelligence

UNKNOWN

Start prob: —Base quality: -0.58Confidence: 89%Support: PARTIAL_COMPONENT_SUPPORT

Weaknesses: SACK_AVOIDANCE, RED_ZONE_PROFILE

Trench intelligence

Phase 5 offensive line and defensive front receipts.

ARI

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

LAC

Offensive line

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

ARI

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

LAC

Defensive front

Unavailable

No Phase 5 trench receipt for this unit.

INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY · INSUFFICIENT_SUPPORT · NO_CERTIFIED_PHASE2_AUTHORITY

Skill & personnel

Phase 6 usage concentration, continuity and replacement sensitivity.

ARI

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

LAC

Offensive skillUnavailable

Defensive back sevenUnavailable

Key players

Production window: 2025 Season

ARI

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Jacoby BrissettQB	86%	0	0	0	38	168	1
Trey McBrideTE	91%	169	126	1239	0	0	11
Michael WilsonWR	81%	126	78	1006	0	0	7
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR	71%	73	41	608	0	0	4
Michael CarterRB	45%	45	33	267	92	333	1
Elijah HigginsTE	43%	37	30	301	0	0	0
Kyler MurrayQB	99%	0	0	0	29	173	1
Greg DortchWR	34%	33	29	206	7	15	4
Emari DemercadoRB	25%	20	13	101	44	312	1
Xavier WeaverWR	47%	13	7	67	0	0	0
Zay JonesWR	49%	18	12	183	0	0	0
Trey BensonRB	48%	16	13	64	29	160	0
James ConnerRB	50%	9	8	38	32	95	2
Bam KnightRB	0%	31	22	160	82	269	5
Tip ReimanTE	46%	5	3	18	0	0	0
Jalen BrooksWR	36%	6	3	51	0	0	0
Andre BaccelliaWR	29%	4	2	8	0	0	0
Josiah DeguaraTE	11%	5	3	21	0	0	1

LAC

Player	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD
Justin HerbertQB	97%	0	0	0	83	498	2
Ladd McConkeyWR	78%	106	66	789	0	0	6
Quentin JohnstonWR	79%	84	51	735	2	7	8
Keenan AllenWR	55%	122	81	777	0	0	4
Oronde Gadsden IITE	63%	69	49	664	0	0	3
Kimani VidalRB	54%	22	16	136	155	643	4
Tre HarrisWR	49%	43	30	324	2	10	1
Omarion HamptonRB	63%	35	32	192	124	545	5
Will DisslyTE	32%	16	11	97	0	0	0
Trey LanceQB	38%	0	0	0	17	85	0
Jaret PattersonRB	28%	4	3	8	41	159	1
Tyler ConklinTE	30%	10	7	101	1	2	0
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR	19%	12	5	51	0	0	1
Hassan HaskinsRB	11%	4	4	13	17	47	0
Tucker FiskTE	35%	4	2	19	0	0	0
Derius DavisWR	11%	3	2	10	2	5	0
Najee HarrisRB	22%	3	3	25	15	61	0
Trayveon WilliamsRB	19%	1	1	0	3	-1	0

Availability & injuries

Report window: 2026

Current report

2026 injury reports as filed before kickoff.

Team	Player	Pos	Practice
ARI	Josh Sweat	LB	Did Not Participate In Practice
ARI	Blake Gillikin	P	Full Participation in Practice
ARI	Garrett Williams	CB	Limited Participation in Practice
ARI	Isaiah Adams	G	Did Not Participate In Practice
ARI	Dadrion Taylor-Demerson	S	Limited Participation in Practice
ARI	Will Johnson	CB	Full Participation in Practice
ARI	Jeremiyah Love	RB	Limited Participation in Practice
LAC	Khalil Mack	DE	Did Not Participate In Practice
LAC	Deane Leonard	CB	Did Not Participate In Practice
LAC	Keaton Mitchell	RB	Limited Participation in Practice
LAC	Tuli Tuipulotu	DE	Limited Participation in Practice
LAC	R.J. Mickens	S	Limited Participation in Practice
LAC	Brenen Thompson	WR	Limited Participation in Practice

Depth chart

2026 roster — never mixed with prior-season production.

ARI

CHjalte Froholdt#1
FSAndrew Wingard#1
HBlake Gillikin#1
KRDevin Duvernay#1
LCBWill Johnson#1
LDEJosh Sweat#1
LDTRoy Lopez#1
LGIsaac Seumalo#1
LSCasey Kreiter#1
LTParis Johnson Jr.#1
MLBMack Wilson Sr.#1
NBGarrett Williams#1
PBlake Gillikin#1
PKChad Ryland#1
PRDevin Duvernay#1
QBJacoby Brissett#1
RBJeremiyah Love#1
RCBDenzel Burke#1
RDEDarius Robinson#1
RDTWalter Nolen III#1
RGIsaiah Adams#1
RTElijah Wilkinson#1
SLBZaven Collins#1
SSBudda Baker#1

LAC

CTyler Biadasz#1
FBAlec Ingold#1
FSElijah Molden#1
HJK Scott#1
KRDerius Davis#1
LCBCam Hart#1
LDETeair Tart#1
LGKayode Awosika#1
LILBDaiyan Henley#1
LSJosh Harris#1
LTRashawn Slater#1
NBTarheeb Still#1
NTDalvin Tomlinson#1
PJK Scott#1
PKCameron Dicker#1
PRDerius Davis#1
QBJustin Herbert#1
RBOmarion Hampton#1
RCBDonte Jackson#1
RDEJamaree Caldwell#1
RGCole Strange#1
RILBDenzel Perryman#1
RTJoe Alt#1
SLBKhalil Mack#1

Recent form

Game logs — Last 10 completed games

ARI

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-04	@ LA	L	20–37	5.98	0.036	2
2025-12-28	@ CIN	L	14–37	4.31	-0.045	0
2025-12-21	vs ATL	L	19–26	5.71	-0.004	1
2025-12-14	@ HOU	L	20–40	4.80	0.012	1
2025-12-07	vs LA	L	17–45	5.15	-0.062	1
2025-11-30	@ TB	L	17–20	6.43	-0.026	2
2025-11-23	vs JAX	L	24–27	4.29	-0.147	0
2025-11-16	vs SF	L	22–41	6.68	0.061	3
2025-11-09	@ SEA	L	22–44	4.55	-0.211	2
2025-11-04	@ DAL	W	27–17	5.41	0.113	0

LAC

Date	Opp	Res	Score	Y/P	EPA/P	TO
2026-01-12	@ NE	L	3–16	3.51	-0.254	1
2026-01-04	@ DEN	L	3–19	3.29	-0.414	2
2025-12-27	vs HOU	L	16–20	4.66	-0.215	1
2025-12-21	@ DAL	W	34–17	7.44	0.446	0
2025-12-14	@ KC	W	16–13	4.85	-0.045	1
2025-12-09	vs PHI	W	22–19	3.87	-0.272	2
2025-11-30	vs LV	W	31–14	5.28	0.138	1
2025-11-16	@ JAX	L	6–35	3.00	-0.511	1
2025-11-10	vs PIT	W	25–10	4.63	-0.083	0
2025-11-02	@ TEN	W	27–20	5.38	0.084	1

Trends

Rolling windows over completed games before the cutoff.

Last 3

ARI 0-3 (3) · LAC 0-3 (3)

17.7Points For / Game7.3

33.3Points Against / Game18.3

-15.7Average Margin-11.0

5.34Yards / Play3.80

5.64Yards / Play Allowed5.63

-0.00EPA / Play-0.30

+0.21EPA / Play Allowed-0.12

38.7%Success Rate34.2%

48.8%Success Rate Allowed39.8%

10.4%Explosive Rate3.3%

10.5%Explosive Rate Allowed8.0%

37.8%3rd Down %31.1%

50.0%Red Zone TD %22.2%

1.00Turnovers / Game1.33

Last 5

ARI 0-5 (5) · LAC 2-3 (5)

18.0Points For / Game14.4

37.0Points Against / Game17.0

-19.0Average Margin-2.6

5.18Yards / Play4.74

6.34Yards / Play Allowed5.39

-0.01EPA / Play-0.10

+0.26EPA / Play Allowed-0.08

40.3%Success Rate41.5%

51.7%Success Rate Allowed41.9%

8.3%Explosive Rate5.6%

11.7%Explosive Rate Allowed6.9%

37.7%3rd Down %37.1%

55.6%Red Zone TD %41.2%

1.00Turnovers / Game1.00

Last 10

ARI 1-9 (10) · LAC 6-4 (10)

20.2Points For / Game18.3

33.4Points Against / Game18.3

-13.2Average Margin0.0

5.31Yards / Play4.62

6.12Yards / Play Allowed5.08

-0.03EPA / Play-0.10

+0.14EPA / Play Allowed-0.14

44.3%Success Rate41.0%

49.6%Success Rate Allowed41.7%

7.3%Explosive Rate5.8%

11.2%Explosive Rate Allowed8.0%

39.8%3rd Down %41.2%

57.5%Red Zone TD %48.6%

1.20Turnovers / Game1.00

2025 Season

ARI 3-14 (17) · LAC 11-7 (18)

20.9Points For / Game20.6

28.7Points Against / Game19.8

-7.8Average Margin+0.8

5.16Yards / Play5.18

5.82Yards / Play Allowed5.16

-0.02EPA / Play-0.04

+0.09EPA / Play Allowed-0.08

43.0%Success Rate43.1%

48.5%Success Rate Allowed41.5%

6.9%Explosive Rate6.9%

10.2%Explosive Rate Allowed8.2%

42.4%3rd Down %44.6%

55.9%Red Zone TD %50.7%

1.12Turnovers / Game1.11

History & comparables

Head to head, shared opponents and similar profiles — 2018–2024

Head to head

3 meeting(s) · LAC 2 – ARI 1 · avg total 45.3 · avg margin 11.3

Date	Matchup	Score	Total
2024-10-22	LAC @ ARI	15–17	32
2022-11-27	LAC @ ARI	25–24	49
2018-11-25	ARI @ LAC	10–45	55

Common opponents · 2024 & 2025

Opponent	ARI	LAC	Margin edge
CIN	0-1 -23	1-0 7	-30.0
MIN	0-1 -1	1-0 27	-28.0
JAX	0-1 -3	0-1 -29	26.0
CAR	1-1 -1	1-0 23	-23.5
TB	0-1 -3	0-1 -23	20.0
ATL	0-1 -7	1-0 4	-11.0
NO	1-0 7	1-0 18	-11.0
WAS	0-1 -28	0-1 -17	-11.0
IND	0-1 -4	0-1 -14	10.0
TEN	0-1 -1	2-0 9	-9.5
HOU	0-1 -20	0-2 -12	-8.0
DAL	1-0 10	1-0 17	-7.0
NE	1-0 13	1-1 10	3.0
MIA	1-0 1	1-0 2	-1.0

Similar profiles · Deterministic football-profile nearest neighbours: season EPA/play, EPA allowed, points for, points against and offensive pace for both participants. No market or price feature is used.

ARI @ NO (2025)20-1372%
ARI @ HOU (2025)20-4068%
WAS @ LAC (2025)27-1064%
ARI @ TB (2025)17-2064%

Sportsbook market

11 books · odds_api

Prospective snapshot

Book quotes

Book	ARI spread	LAC spread	Total	Over	Under	ARI ML	LAC ML
betmgm	+9.5 -118	-9.5 -112	47.5	-108	-110	+400	-500
betonlineag	+9.5 -115	-9.5 -105	47	-115	-105	+393	-515
betrivers	+9.5 -108	-9.5 -113	47	-114	-107	+375	-500
betus	+9.5 -115	-9.5 -105	47.5	-110	-110	+400	-515
bovada	+8 -105	-8 -115	47	-115	-105	+355	-490
draftkings	+9.5 -105	-9.5 -115	47.5	-102	-118	+380	-500
fanatics	+9 -110	-9 -110	47.5	-105	-115	+370	-500
fanduel	+9.5 -115	-9.5 -105	47.5	-104	-118	+380	-490
lowvig	+9.5 -110	-9.5 +100	47	-113	-102	+393	-515
mybookieag	+9.5 -110	-9.5 -110	47	-110	-110	+350	-481
williamhill_us	+9.5 -112	-9.5 -108	47.5	-108	-112	+400	-530

Current-run value candidates

#	Expression	Book	Price	Model	Fair	Edge	EV
1	ARI ML	betmgm	+400	40.7%	20.0%	20.7%	1.034
2	ARI +9.5	draftkings	-105	67.3%	50.6%	16.7%	0.314
3	UNDER 47.5	betmgm	-110	58.2%	50.8%	7.4%	0.111
4	UNDER 47	lowvig	-102	54.8%	48.9%	5.9%	0.119
5	ARI +9	—	-110	65.0%	50.0%	15.0%	0.264
6	ARI +8	—	-105	62.7%	48.9%	13.7%	0.247
7	LAC -9.5	lowvig	+100	32.7%	49.4%	-16.7%	-0.347
8	OVER 47.5	draftkings	-102	41.8%	49.2%	-7.4%	-0.172
9	OVER 47	mybookieag	-110	41.8%	51.1%	-9.3%	-0.168
10	LAC -9	—	-110	32.7%	50.0%	-17.3%	-0.353
11	LAC -8	—	-115	35.0%	51.1%	-16.1%	-0.322
12	LAC ML	mybookieag	-481	59.3%	80.0%	-20.7%	-0.283

Travel, rest & environment

Phase 7 situational context.

Distance

350 mi

Timezone shift

0 h

ARI rest

251.95833333333334 days

LAC rest

244.8090277777778 days

Short week

None

Off bye

None

Surface

matrixturf

Roof

dome

Indoor

Yes

Weather

Indoor venue (dome) — weather is not a factor.

Risk factors & limitations

Stated plainly. Nothing is smoothed over.

No 2026 team production exists yet — every descriptive stat on this page is labelled "2025 Season" and is a prior-season baseline, not current-season form.
Phase 11 returned WITHHOLD (WITHHOLD_LOW_FOOTBALL_SUPPORT) — there is no actionable bet.

Sources

nfl_games / nfl_result_authority (canonical schedule and results)
nfl_ui_team_game, nfl_ui_player_season, nfl_ui_qb_season (descriptive, completed games only)
nfl_team_identity_receipts, nfl_qb_receipts, nfl_trench_receipts, nfl_personnel_receipts (Phase 3–6)
nfl_environment_receipts, nfl_matchup_receipts, nfl_script_receipts (Phase 7–9)
nfl_market_decision_receipts, nfl_market_consensus_receipts, nfl_market_snapshot_receipts (Phase 11, prospective only)

Official bet

The only wagering authority on this page.

Withheld

The model is not releasing a wager on this game.

No Bet — Football evidence still developing

Best market prediction

Strongest current priced expression — not a bet.

STRONG LEAN

ARI ML +400

Bookbetmgm

Model prob40.7%

Fair prob20.0%

Edge20.7%

Market snapshot

11 books

Market awaiting

LAC spread-9.5 -108

Total47.5 o-106

MoneylineARI +380 / LAC -500

Sourceodds_api

Model support

Authoritynfl_probability_baseline_c@1.0.0

Confidence—

Decision cutoffFri, Sep 11, 2026 • 10:02 AM ET

Candidates12

Game info

KickoffSun, Sep 13, 2026 • 4:25 PM ET

VenueSoFi Stadium

Roofdome

Surfacematrixturf

NeutralNo

WeatherIndoor venue (dome) — weather is not a factor.

RestARI 251.95833333333334 / LAC 244.8090277777778 days

Travel350 mi